Translations: A Hegemonic Israeli Regime in the Middle East

By Amos Yadlin, retired Major General in the Israeli Air Force, formerly served as head of Defense Intelligence (2006-2010), and currently serves as Chairman of MIND Israel. Avner Golov, Deputy Chairman of the organization, served as Director of the Israeli National Security Council between 2018 and 2023

This extensive article provides an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical shifts in the Middle East since the October 7 attack, examining the changing power dynamics between Israel and Hamas, the rise and decline of Iran and Hezbollah, and the United States’ attempts to reshape its regional presence. The article focuses on the Israeli strategy of investing its military successes in building a new regional alliance that goes beyond military dimensions to include a political and economic vision aimed at confronting Iranian threats and reducing the influence of political Islamist forces. The article also addresses the complexities surrounding providing a political horizon for the Palestinians in light of regional and international challenges, stressing the importance of coordination with Arab partners and the United States to achieve long-term stability in the region. Below is a summary translation of the article:

Today, the Middle East is witnessing a struggle over the formation of a new regional order, and since the October 7 attack, three competing visions have emerged: Hamas sought to ignite a multi-front war to destroy Israel, while Iran, in cooperation with Hezbollah, sought to wage a war of attrition that would lead to Israel’s collapse and distance the United States from the region. On the other hand, the United States supported a vision of regional stability based on normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, enhancing political opportunities for Israelis and Palestinians, and establishing a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia.

All three visions failed due to miscalculations by the parties involved. Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah misjudged the strength of the Israeli military and Israeli society and the solidity of the US-Israeli alliance. The United States overestimated its ability to direct Israel’s policies toward Gaza and did not adequately take into account the Iranian threat. In recent months, Israel has begun to exploit this gap to present its own vision; It has launched decisive military operations, destroyed Hamas’s military capabilities, forced Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire on Israeli terms, and carried out advanced strikes inside Iran. These moves have undermined Iranian influence in the region, as Iran has lost the land corridor extending from its border to Israel, which represents a major setback for its regional strategy.

Israel now needs to leverage its battlefield successes to bolster its political position, as it must push for a new political framework that supports security and stability in the region. An Arab-Israeli alliance supported by the United States can confront the threats from Shiite and Sunni extremists, provide a realistic political horizon for the Palestinians, and prevent any future attack on Israel. Israel cannot impose its vision alone, and it must seek the support of key countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Western allies such as the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Under the current circumstances, Israel has a rare opportunity to reshape the region in a way that serves its interests and those of its allies, but it needs a coherent strategy that combines military success with political direction to achieve this.

Ambitious Plans and Fateful Failures

The Middle East has witnessed an escalation of conflicts over regional influence following Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7. The late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar ordered the attack in order to ignite a new Palestinian uprising at home and launch coordinated attacks by Iranian-backed armed groups. Sinwar expected this escalation to lead to Israel’s military collapse. His plan relied on the support of Hezbollah and the Iranian “axis of resistance.” However, he miscalculated the regional reactions. Hezbollah began shelling Israel, but its activity remained limited. Shiite militias from Iraq and Syria fired missiles and drones, and did not pose a significant threat to Israeli defense systems. The Houthis joined the attacks by targeting ships in the Red Sea and firing rockets at Israeli cities. However, the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad refrained from directly attacking Israel or engaging the Syrian army, limiting the effectiveness of the Iranian axis.

Israel met these threats forcefully, killing thousands of Hamas fighters, including Sinwar, and waging a war of attrition that weakened the enemy organizations. The war initially encouraged Iran and Hezbollah, who saw it as an opportunity to increase pressure on Israel and reduce US influence in the region. The Iranians expected that Washington would gradually withdraw from the Middle East, distracted by strategic challenges with China and the war in Ukraine. The US continued to support Israel and sought to foster new alliances within the framework of the Abraham Accords. Washington pressured Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, but failed to address regional concerns about the ongoing war in Gaza. Saudi Arabia refused to proceed with normalization because of Israel’s intransigence on the two-state solution. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed ending the war, betting on a Republican victory in the US presidential election to ease US pressure on Israel.

Regional concerns about the failure of various strategies have been reinforced: Sinwar’s vision has failed to achieve its goals, Iran and Hezbollah have failed to impose their regional hegemony, and the US plan has faced major obstacles. Nevertheless, the Middle East remains in a state of constant reshaping, with various parties pursuing their interests in a volatile environment.

Empty Throne

The Middle East has witnessed major transformations with the escalation of tensions on Israel’s northern front. The events began with a Hezbollah missile attack in July on a stadium in the Golan Heights, which prompted Israel to carry out qualitative military operations that resulted in the assassination of Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, and the destruction of thousands of missiles. Iran responded by launching 181 ballistic missiles in October, but failed to achieve significant results. Israel responded with precise airstrikes targeting vital sites in Iran, which exposed the weakness of the Iranian military structure and stopped the direct escalation.

In November, Israel and Lebanon, with the approval of Iran and Hezbollah, signed a ceasefire agreement, coinciding with a military operation by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels that toppled the Assad regime in Damascus within two weeks. These developments have weakened the regional influence of Iran and Hezbollah. These events have created a leadership vacuum in the region, where Israel now has a unique opportunity to forge a new alliance that will reorder the Middle East’s priorities toward peace, stability, and prosperity. Israel seeks to consolidate its military victories by building a moderate regional alliance of Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. Israel aims to confront major security threats, most notably Iran, and to counter attempts by Turkey and Qatar to bolster the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. The plan seeks to provide a political future for the Palestinians while ensuring Israel’s protection from terrorist attacks. Israel needs U.S. support to lead this effort, and an Arab partnership that will give the alliance regional legitimacy. The effort is set to begin with a summit that includes the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and other countries such as Oman, as well as Palestinian representatives, with the goal of promoting normalization, establishing a new security framework, and deradicalizing Gaza. The plan also seeks to reduce the influence of Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria and increase the involvement of the Gulf states there.

The summit also aims to present a new Palestinian vision based on effective governance and demilitarization in Gaza before reconstruction. The United States will oversee a deliberate transition led by a Palestinian-Arab committee that recognizes Israel, eliminates terrorism, and stops its funding, while securing the border with Egypt to prevent Hamas from rearming. The summit also aims to accelerate the establishment of a permanent regional defense architecture to confront terrorism, secure maritime navigation, and enhance intelligence sharing. Israel and the United States will also coordinate their efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, while strengthening regional deterrence to counter any potential escalation.

Conclusion

Achieving regional security for Israel and its partners requires the Trump administration to commit to supporting the Middle East and using force to deter common threats. This vision faces challenges from within the US administration, which calls for a reduced international role. Despite the decline in the position of Iran and Russia, the US withdrawal from Syria remains a strategic concern. The Hamas attack in October demonstrated that Israel does not fully control the course of regional events. Nevertheless, the war in Gaza over the past months has restored some leverage for Israel, but sustaining this momentum will require courageous leadership. The aspirations of the extremists in the Netanyahu government, such as annexation and military rule in Gaza, are hindering this progress and increasing the likelihood of a broader regional conflict that serves Iran’s interests. Israel needs to adopt a coherent vision that addresses the Iranian threat, promotes regional integration, and provides a political horizon for the Palestinians. This vision should be based on a coordinated plan supported by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Only through these steps can Israel capitalize on its military successes to create a more stable and prosperous Middle East and take advantage of the opportunities emerging from the war.

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