Translations: Gaza - Israel: Donald Trump's puzzling bet

By Sylvain Cypel

This article examines the complexities of the political scene in the Middle East in light of the war on Gaza, and the increasing American pressure led by Donald Trump to sign a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The article focuses on the regional implications of these moves, including the impact of Israeli policies on the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and the challenges facing the implementation of the agreement. The article also discusses the new American priorities in the region, especially in light of the international competition with China, and analyzes Israeli plans to expand its regional influence with the support of the Trump administration. Below is a summary translation of the article:

The war on Gaza has witnessed major changes with the escalation of American pressure led by Donald Trump to sign a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which included the release of Israeli hostages. Despite Netanyahu's resistance to these demands under threats from the extreme right, it seems that he has finally responded to pressure from Washington. This coincided with Israel’s retreat from previous plans, such as the “Generals’ Plan” project, which aimed to destroy the infrastructure in northern Gaza, impose forced displacement and organized famine, raising questions about Israel’s ultimate goals in the Strip.

Questions remain about Israel’s intentions after the ceasefire, especially with the ongoing project to divide the Gaza Strip into separate areas tightly controlled by the Israeli army. Although the agreement includes the return of residents to the northern Gaza Strip, ambiguity surrounds the areas that Israel will insist on maintaining control over, amid doubts about its commitment to a full withdrawal from the Strip.

Between Joy and Implementation Challenges

The expressions of joy expressed by Palestinians after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement can easily be understood, as they chanted victory songs amid the rubble of Gaza after 468 days of massacres and horrific destruction. In contrast, the reactions of the families of the Israeli hostages seem more reserved, given their concerns about Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions. The terms of the prisoner release remain vague and unstable, as the agreement requires slow and complex implementation over three phases lasting at least three months, with the time frame for the final phase, which involves the exchange of bodies of those killed by both sides, unclear. The agreement also did not specify the number of people to be released in the second phase. Implementing the agreement faces multiple difficulties related to the pace of Israeli troop withdrawal, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the construction of temporary housing for displaced Palestinians. The question remains as to whether Israel will allow the return of UNRWA to Gaza, the only entity with the logistical capabilities necessary to deal with the humanitarian catastrophe. However, the agreement does not seem to mention this point, especially since Israel passed a law prohibiting any activity by the agency. On the other hand, reports indicate that Netanyahu, who agreed to the agreement under pressure, may allow the war to resume after the first phase. In contrast, the real Israeli focus seems to be on the West Bank, where Trump promised Israel to facilitate its annexation in exchange for abandoning its ambitions in Gaza. The agreement included controversial points, such as allowing the ceasefire to be terminated when necessary, US approval for settlement expansion, lifting sanctions on settlers, and blocking international efforts against Israeli leaders accused of war crimes.

Palestinians’ greatest fear

Israel continues to implement destructive repressive policies in the West Bank, where the army and settlers work hand in hand in violence and displacement. Bezalel Smotrich, the minister responsible for the Civil Administration, called for a broad military operation aimed at “destroying the refugee camps” in cities such as Nablus, Jenin, and Tulkarm, referring to a plan to turn these areas into rubble, similar to the completely destroyed city of Jabalia in the Gaza Strip. Palestinian research centers predict scenarios that include the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians across the Jordan River. At the same time, Israel is working to delegitimize UNRWA to weaken the refugee issue, while normalization with Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, deepens the Palestinians’ isolation from the international community.

These moves reflect broad support from the Israeli right, which calls for a new Nakba in the West Bank. With the Trump administration’s support for Israel, Tel Aviv is being given the green light to implement its expansionist policies, including the destruction of Palestinian infrastructure and the drying up of food and energy sources, as Israeli parliamentarians recently called for. Israel is also seeking to exploit the opportunity to reshape the geographic and demographic reality in the West Bank, with the aim of strengthening its control and annexing Palestinian lands. This international support and escalating Israeli policies threaten to turn the West Bank into an arena of mass destruction, while the Palestinians remain internationally isolated amid a decline in the UN’s role in protecting their rights.

US Priorities in the Near East

Donald Trump’s return to power comes amid unprecedented complexity of the Palestinian issue since 1948. Netanyahu has managed to radically reshape the regional landscape after destroying Gaza and weakening Iran and Hezbollah, leading to major repercussions, most notably the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the control of the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” group. These transformations pose new challenges to the Trump administration, which is facing pressure to rearrange regional alliances, especially in light of the growing competition with China, which may push Washington to enhance its influence through major deals such as reviving the Abraham Accords or signing new security agreements.

Trump’s policies towards the region face expectations of greater chaos and an unconventional approach. According to some analysts, Trump is seeking to conclude a new nuclear deal with Iran, which may put him in confrontation with Israel, which has domestic support for launching a comprehensive attack on Iran. However, projects such as the tripartite agreement between the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia face fundamental obstacles, especially due to Israel’s hardline stance on the Palestinian issue. This complexity may push towards alternative solutions, such as a bilateral security agreement between Saudi Arabia and America, but it lacks the symbolism that Washington aspires to.

In conclusion, the American elites are focused on imposing an “American peace” in the Middle East without addressing the core of the Palestinian issue. Analyses show a tendency to ignore the idea of establishing a Palestinian state or ending the decades-long Israeli occupation, while American policies continue to support Israeli hegemony and ignore the humanitarian and political repercussions. In the absence of real American pressure on Israel, such as halting military support, a solution remains elusive. Trump’s future policies show signs of continued escalation and the absence of real solutions, which deepens the Palestinian wound and further complicates the regional scene.