The Future of Hamas Between the Deal and Expected Challenges

Alaa Matar

Amad/ The Israeli war of extermination in the Gaza Strip is approaching its 470th consecutive day, while a state of widespread controversy is surfacing among the Gazans, about the “war of nothingness” that caused them to pay all this heavy price, starting with the number of martyrs approaching 50 thousand and the injuries approaching 120 thousand, passing through the destruction of the infrastructure of the Strip and making it an area unfit for life, and not ending with a huge and unknown number of prisoners in the occupation’s prisons and missing persons, after years of “erasure propaganda” that Hamas has been hurting our heads with, until we reached the most prominent topics currently being raised: the negotiations between Hamas and Israel, in light of allegations from senior Palestinian officials that Hamas’s refusal to accept a certain deal may put the movement’s future at stake.

This highlights the internal and external challenges facing Hamas in light of regional and international pressures, in addition to the impact of this on the Palestinian scene as a whole, in light of reports that the ongoing negotiations are related to a sensitive deal that touches on political and security issues that may have a fundamental impact on Hamas and its presence as a major force in the Palestinian arena.

With the lack of details announced in the media about the content of the deal, questions are raised about the extent of the concessions required from the movement, and whether it will take steps that may lead to a change in its strategy or structure.

The claim that the movement’s leaders may sign a “deletion” of Hamas, if they do not accept the deal, reflects the great pressures facing the movement’s political leadership. In light of this scenario, it seems that the deal is not just a passing agreement, but a turning point that could determine the movement’s future and its role in the Palestinian struggle.

According to the reports, Hamas leaders’ rejection of the deal could lead to disastrous consequences for the movement as a whole, most notably the tightening of the regional and international noose to weaken the movement’s influence, the escalation of direct military confrontation with Israel, and thirdly the erosion of popular support, because if the move is interpreted as harming major Palestinian interests, the movement could lose part of its popular base inside and outside the Gaza Strip. All of this is in addition to the worsening of the Palestinian division with the Palestinian Authority, which deepens the internal division and weakens the Palestinian position in the face of the Israeli occupation.

In light of these pressures, the movement faces a difficult dilemma that requires a delicate balance between preserving its basic principles and being open to solutions that may be necessary to ease the burdens on the Palestinian people, especially in the besieged Gaza Strip. If we assume that the movement accepted the deal, this would be a strategic step that could reshape its relationship with other parties. However, acceptance could be interpreted as a concession to some of its basic goals.

However, if the movement rejects the deal, it may show firmness in its positions, but it will face existential challenges as a result of the potential consequences.

Regional and international parties are currently playing an important role in shaping the course of these negotiations. While some countries are pushing for a political settlement that includes concessions from Hamas, other parties are seeking to exploit this circumstance to weaken the movement. The Israeli role here is central, as Tel Aviv seeks to undermine any future role for Hamas in the Palestinian arena, whether through political pressure or military operations.

Apart from Hamas as an organization, these talks reflect a delicate stage in the course of the Palestinian cause. The decision that Hamas will take will greatly affect the future of the Palestinian resistance and the chances of achieving national unity. Hence, the situation requires a great deal of wisdom and strategic planning to avoid scenarios that increase the suffering of the Palestinian people and weaken their position in the international arena.

Talk about eliminating Hamas as a result of its rejection of a certain deal reflects the complexity of the Palestinian political scene and its overlap with the interests of regional and international parties. At this stage, the choice that the movement’s leadership will make is a real test of their ability to balance political principles with the requirements of the changing reality. Whatever the decision, achieving Palestinian unity and confronting the Israeli occupation remains the ultimate goal that must unite all parties.