Shadi Al-Shorafa: The deal represents a major blow to the slogans raised by Israel at the beginning of the war, which included promises to destroy the resistance.

Dr. Mansour Abu Karim: The agreement paves the way for major transformations in both the Palestinian and Israeli political scenes

Adnan Al-Afandy: Ben Gvir's resignation will not affect or hinder the agreement, and American pressure will remain the decisive factor in its completion

Nevin Abu Rahmon: The prisoner deal may be Netanyahu's last achievement.. and his government faces fateful issues and multiple threats

Ali Al-Awar: We are facing a great national achievement and the world is now dealing with the Palestinian people as a people with political rights

Imad Abu Awad: The military leap that occurred on October 7th requires a parallel political leap to achieve political gains

The consensus that Benjamin Netanyahu's government has enjoyed from the far-right parties, led by the parties of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, may continue for a long time if Ben-Gvir carries out his threats to resign as soon as the prisoner exchange deal between Israel and the Palestinian resistance goes into effect as of Sunday morning - as scheduled - but it is unlikely to lead to its collapse, or cause the deal to be disrupted, in light of the pledge made by Israeli opposition leader Lapid to provide the government with a safety net if Ben-Gvir or Smotrich or both decide to resign.

Meanwhile, many questions arise about the day after the war, whether on the Palestinian issue or inside Israel, especially with Netanyahu’s submission to American desires as well as to the movements of the Israeli street demanding the return of the “kidnapped” in Gaza through an exchange deal, a ceasefire, and a gradual withdrawal from the Strip, even before eliminating Hamas and the rest of the resistance factions and other entitlements that Netanyahu has always declared his rejection of.

Writers and analysts who spoke to "Y" considered that the deal represents a major blow to the slogans raised by Israel at the beginning of the war, and that the agreement paves the way for major transformations in the Palestinian and Israeli political scene alike, stressing that Ben Gvir's resignation will not affect or hinder the agreement, and that American pressure will remain the decisive factor in its completion.

Ben-Gvir's resignation deepens rift within Israeli right

Shadi Al-Shorafa, an expert in Israeli affairs, said that the deal and Israeli submission to the dictates imposed by the Palestinian resistance, including withdrawal and the return of the displaced, leading to the end of the war, constitute crucial stages if the deal is implemented.

Al-Shorfa added: “This deal represents a major blow to the slogans raised by Israel at the beginning of the war, which included promises to destroy the Palestinian resistance, led by Hamas, control the Gaza Strip and establish a security belt, not withdraw from the Strip, and refuse to release prisoners.”

He stressed that all these goals collapsed in the face of the legendary steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance, which is considered great gains achieved by the Palestinian people.

Al-Shorfa pointed out that Itamar Ben-Gvir's resignation, if the deal goes into effect, could put the Israeli government in a state of instability, as any other party in the government coalition could threaten its stability.

He added: "This resignation increases the rift and gap within the Israeli right, which is suffering from increasing cracks, especially in light of the conflicts within religious Zionism, in addition to the decline in the Israeli street's confidence in the government and the army, due to what they consider submission to the dictates imposed by the Palestinian resistance.

Fear of a military and bloody escalation in the West Bank

Al-Shorfa explained that this internal rift in Israel, in addition to the collapse of the major slogans raised during the war on the Gaza Strip, may push the Israeli government to try to cover up its internal crisis through a military and bloody escalation in the West Bank and Jerusalem, with the aim of diverting the attention of the Israeli street.

Al-Shorfa explained that the recent Israeli decisions, which included considering the West Bank a war front and intensifying the military presence there, indicate that Israel is preparing for a major military project.

He cited the seven-hour Israeli government meeting, where Israeli media leaks showed that the discussion centered on the West Bank and the military measures taken to appease Bezalel Smotrich and prevent him from withdrawing from the government.

A new qualitative stage in the history of the Palestinian struggle

Al-Shorfa considered the conclusion of the deal and Ben Gvir's resignation to be evidence of the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance and the choices of the Palestinian people. He said: "We are facing a new qualitative phase in the history of the Palestinian national struggle, within one of the largest deals witnessed by Palestinian history, which includes important names, symbols and prominent figures."

He stressed the need to strengthen national unity and put the Palestinian house in order to face the upcoming challenges, emphasizing the importance of investing in the qualitative leap achieved by the resistance through the deal.

Al-Shorfa added: “This stage requires formulating new national strategies, including strengthening national unity, reorganizing the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian National Authority, and working to hold elections that ensure true representation of the Palestinian people.

"Birth from the Loins" Agreement

For his part, Dr. Mansour Abu Karim, a researcher in political affairs and international relations, said that the recent agreement between Israel and Hamas is a temporary agreement of a security nature, and is not directly linked to large-scale political or security changes in the Palestinian territories or the Gaza Strip.

Abu Karim explained that the current agreement represents the first stage of a comprehensive exchange deal that includes the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners, in addition to the entry of humanitarian aid into the Strip.

Abu Karim described the agreement as "birth from the waist," noting that it came after arduous and lengthy negotiations.

He added: "The agreement is considered a response to international political transformations, especially with the return of former US President Donald Trump to the political scene, and the subsequent pressures to restore calm and stability to the Middle East.

On the Israeli side, Abu Karim pointed out that the agreement casts a shadow over the government coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu, as the latter faces threats from right-wing ministers, most notably Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have announced their readiness to withdraw from the government.

Abu Karim explained that any split in the coalition could lead to the disintegration of the Israeli government and possibly early elections.

"The agreement raised internal questions about the feasibility of the human and economic costs incurred by Israel during the war, compared to what could be achieved through negotiations," he said.

The repercussions of the agreement are still limited at the present stage.

On the Palestinian level, Abu Karim noted that the repercussions of the agreement are still limited at the current stage. However, there could be significant political implications if the deal moves to the next stages, which could include new security and political arrangements in the Gaza Strip, including the possibility of the Palestinian Authority returning to the Strip, managing the crossings, and forming a national consensus government.

Abu Karim stressed that the agreement paves the way for major transformations in the Palestinian and Israeli political scene alike.

He explained that the success of the upcoming stages will determine the nature of the relationship between the two parties and the form of government in Gaza, which makes the current agreement a turning point that may lead to a rearrangement of political cards in the region.

Abu Karim concluded his statement to Al-Quds by stressing that the current agreement reflects a complex and intertwined reality, in which regional and international interests overlap with the internal calculations of both parties.

He added: "The coming days will be decisive in determining the course of this deal and its repercussions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict."

Dramatic developments in Israel due to the exchange deal

In turn, Adnan Al-Afandy, an expert in Israeli affairs, considered that the political arena in the occupying state is witnessing dramatic repercussions and developments these days, in light of Itamar Ben Gvir’s announcement of his intention to resign from the government if the exchange deal with the resistance is approved.

He said: This step announced by Ben Gvir caused a great uproar within the government coalition headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, and led to many questions about the future of the government coalition, and whether there are possible repercussions on the agreement concluded in Qatar between the resistance and the occupying state.

Al-Afandy added: “Ben Gvir indicated that this deal threatens what he described as the ‘achievements of the war on Gaza’, and that if he resigns from the government, he will continue to support it from the outside, but he will not be part of it.”

He believes that Ben Gvir's announcement of his intention to resign is not only because of the agreement, but also to show himself as the most extremist figure in the occupying state, with the aim of enhancing his popularity and increasing his power in the upcoming elections.

He explained that this step also aims to maintain his electoral program and emphasize his hardline positions, indicating the possibility that Ben Gvir had threatened to resign in order to blackmail Netanyahu and obtain additional powers related to the West Bank and settlements.

Lapid promised to provide a safety net for the agreement

Al-Afandy expressed his belief that Ben Gvir's resignation will not affect or hinder the agreement, especially since the opposition leader, Yair Lapid, confirmed that he will provide a safety net for the agreement and for completing the deal.

He stressed that American pressure will remain the decisive factor in completing this agreement, which will force Netanyahu to abide by it in order to obtain the promises made by former US President Donald Trump to support the occupying state, including military support and the return of the war against Gaza. He pointed out that Netanyahu enjoys a majority in the cabinet and the government coalition, which makes him able to pass the agreement.

Al-Afandy pointed out that Ben Gvir's resignation will not have positive political repercussions on the Palestinian cause, because the current Israeli government includes the most extremist parties against the Palestinian people.

No political gains for the Palestinian cause the day after the war

He added: The government's positions will remain as extreme as they are, and will reject any political negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, especially since the electoral program of Religious Zionism and the Likud Party refuse to recognize any Palestinian entity or political rights for the Palestinians.

He also referred to Smotrich's program, which calls for annexing the West Bank and expanding settlements, in addition to Netanyahu's previous promises to tighten occupation measures and prevent the return of Hamas rule in Gaza.

Al-Afandy concluded his statement to Al-Quds newspaper by stressing that there would be no political gains for the Palestinian cause the day after the war. He called for the necessity of achieving true national unity among all segments of the Palestinian people, and developing a unified national program to confront the extremist Zionist policy and confront this extremist government.

Israel was forced to enter the settlement and negotiation process to recover its prisoners

For her part, Nevin Abu Rahmon, an expert in political and Israeli affairs, said that Israel was ultimately forced to resort to the path of settlement and negotiation in order to recover its prisoners.

She pointed out that the threats and possible resignation of Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, in addition to four members of his bloc, will not decisively affect the ability of Benjamin Netanyahu's government to pass the prisoner exchange deal, as the government still maintains a weak parliamentary majority of 62 members even without Ben-Gvir, thanks to the support of Almog Cohen, who rebels against Ben-Gvir. Thus, the opposition is only 57 members compared to 63 for the government.

Abu Rahmon touched on the expected scenarios after the deal: First, the possibility of the collapse of Netanyahu’s government. She said that the Israeli government faces fateful issues and multiple threats on its political front, most notably:

The conscription law, the selection of the Supreme Court chief justice, controversial judicial laws, and the approval of the general budget, the failure to pass which by March will automatically dissolve the Knesset.

Netanyahu may resort to calling early elections

She pointed out that Netanyahu may resort to calling for early elections to invest in the achievements of the war and the prisoner deal before he loses them due to the escalation of internal crises and conflicts within his government coalition.

The second scenario is internal repercussions and coalition conflicts. Abu Rahmon said in this regard that the government coalition suffers from great fragility due to the lack of consensus on major issues that could lead to a rapid dismantling.

She added: Although the prisoner deal with Hamas is a political achievement for Netanyahu, it further complicates the situation within the coalition due to the strong opposition from parties such as Smotrich and Ben Gvir.

Abu Rahmon stressed that Ben Gvir's resignation may show the government's weakness, but it will not bring it down immediately. However, the accumulation of crises and sensitive files such as the budget and the conscription law make the collapse of the government a matter of time, adding: The prisoner deal may be the last achievement that Netanyahu seeks to achieve.

The importance of arranging the Palestinian internal house

Regarding the third day of the war, Abu Rahmon believes that Netanyahu failed to achieve his declared goals from the war, including eliminating the resistance or the Palestinian cause or implementing efforts for settlement activity.

She stressed that the Israeli war of extermination did not achieve its strategic political ambitions, as Gaza and the resistance remained steadfast.

Abu Rahmon pointed out the importance of putting the Palestinian internal house in order in the face of the occupation and its successive policies, stressing that the responsibility now lies with the Palestinians to unify their efforts in confronting the upcoming challenges.

The only victor, apart from the numbers, is the Palestinian cause.

Ali Al-Awar, a specialist in resolving regional and international conflicts, said that the security and political cabinet in Israel approved the prisoner exchange deal and approved the agreement between Hamas and Israel.

He pointed out that there are more than 80% of Israeli forces that support this deal, whether within the security establishment or the political establishment, especially within the Likud Party.

He stressed that the opposition expressed by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich did not affect this deal. However, Ben-Gvir was promoting his resignation, but he did not resign, will not resign, and will not dare to do so.

"For Ben Gvir, the ministry was a dream he never dreamed of, and his only dream was to become a minister in the Israeli government," Al-Awar said.

He added: As for Smotrich, the Religious Zionism Party considers the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Defense to be major political gains, and therefore, Smotrich will not resign and will not submit his resignation, pointing out that the Religious Zionism Party has programs and plans aimed at strengthening settlement and annexing areas in the West Bank.

Resistance has become a difficult number in the Middle East equation

Al-Awar believes that the only victor, regardless of the numbers, is the Palestinian cause. He pointed out that the Palestinian people and Gaza have won, and the resistance has become a difficult number in the Middle East equation and an essential part of the Palestinian political system.

Regarding the political gains for the Palestinian cause the next day, Al-Awar said it was a new political initiative by US President Donald Trump based on the two-state solution and recognition of the political rights of the Palestinian people.

He stressed that no one can ignore the complete destruction of Gaza, the killing of more than fifty thousand citizens, and the wounding of one hundred thousand. This war cannot pass without recognizing the political rights of the Palestinian people.

He said that US President Donald Trump will present a political initiative in the coming period, the title of which is recognition of an independent Palestinian state, adding that the Palestinian issue has reached the entire world, and the Al-Aqsa flood has brought it back to the forefront again.

He added: We are facing very important political gains that can be summed up by the end of the war on Gaza, which provided a victory for the Palestinian people and the Palestinian cause.

Political gains to enhance the end of the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip

He believes that the world now deals with the Palestinian people as a people with political rights, and that the day after the war, there will be political gains, such as the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Netzarim and northern Gaza, and the return of the displaced. These are political gains that will strengthen the end of the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip.

At the level of regional and international relations, Al-Awar stressed that the Palestinian cause and the State of Palestine will be present at the negotiating table. He added: "The whole world is moving towards the future of this cause after more than a hundred years of the international community's failure to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Today, there are new rules and an equation drawn up by the Palestinian resistance based on recognizing the political rights of the Palestinian people, foremost of which is an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Al-Awar concluded by saying: We are facing a great national achievement. This political achievement after the war can be summed up in one sentence: the world’s recognition of the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian national identity, and the recognition of an independent Palestinian state.

He stressed that this political initiative, which will be presented by US President-elect Donald Trump, is based on the two-state solution, based on international legitimacy resolutions and Security Council resolutions related to the Palestinian issue.

The war restored the Palestinian cause's presence in the world

In turn, the expert in Israeli affairs, Imad Abu Awad, considered that talking about the repercussions and political gains of the Palestinian cause on the day following the war requires attention to the fact that this war restored the Palestinian cause’s presence and prestige before various societies, whether at the regional or international level.

He stressed that the war proved, despite the pain, wounds, destruction and enormous losses suffered by the Gaza Strip, which can be described as a "second catastrophe" on the human level, that there is a political basis for the Palestinian cause.

Abu Awad explained that the world now agrees on the necessity of not repeating the events of October 7, and that the only guarantee for this is providing a political basis that grants the Palestinian people part of their rights.

But he pointed out that the problem lies in the internal Palestinian reality, which hinders the ability to achieve political gains due to the ongoing division and the Palestinian Authority’s retreat behind the old alphabets represented by commitment to international legitimacy and relations with the United States of America, in addition to adherence to agreements that Israel has turned its back on.

He added: The major event of October 7, regardless of agreement or disagreement about it, requires a political leap that matches the size of this event and overturns previous concepts that have proven to be a failure.

Abu Awad believed that a strong and firm Palestinian position, despite attempts at tampering and pressure from various parties, might bear fruit.

He stressed that the military leap that took place on October 7th requires a parallel political leap to achieve tangible political gains that serve the Palestinian cause.