Trump and the “minimal settlement” of the Palestinian issue: A forward-looking reading - (Part Two)

War to settle the land issue and reduce the number of Palestinians

The Israeli Level: After more than a century of Western-backed aggression against Palestine, the Zionist project, built on the myth of “a land without a people, for a people without a land,” faces a fundamental existential dilemma. Despite Israel’s seizure of all of historical Palestine and its systematic policy of expelling and displacing Palestinians from their homeland, the number of Palestinians in Israel and the occupied territories now exceeds the number of Jewish Israelis. To complete the achievement of the basic Zionist goal, Israel has found in the war it is currently waging an opportune opportunity to resolve the issue of the occupied territories and reduce the number of Palestinians there to the lowest possible level. Although the Gaza Strip appears to be targeted, and it is, it must not be forgotten that the West Bank is the primary target. While the Strip essentially constitutes a security dilemma for the majority of Israelis, the West Bank has more important and comprehensive considerations, biblical, strategic, military, and economic, which make seizing it, after Jerusalem, a top priority.

"State of Judea and Samaria" Lobby

Israel is now ruled by a right-wing fundamentalist government, dominated by a Zionist-biblical ideology. This government did not come about by chance, nor was it born of an urgent need, but rather is the product of a long process of transformation, which began with the victory of Jabotinsky's "Revisionist Zionism", represented by Begin's Herut party, in the 1977 elections, and the formation of the government. Since then, the right-wing trend has continued to rise and strengthen its position in government, and the pace of Judaization of Jerusalem and the West Bank has escalated, with the expansion of land confiscations, the intensification of settlements, and the focus on increasing the number of settlers there, especially after Sharon implemented the disengagement plan from Gaza in 2005. The increase in the number of settlers, especially the ideological ones, was accompanied by their formation of the strong “State of Judea and Samaria” lobby within the state, which resulted in the successive rise of their influence and their penetration into the joints of the political establishment, and the continuous shift of the political arena towards extremism, not only towards the possibility of reaching a political settlement with the Palestinians, but also on internal issues. The arrival of the current government to power, a government whose survival is controlled by the “State of Judea and Samaria” lobby, is nothing but evidence of the deepening shift towards right-wing extremism in Israel.

Separation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and weakening the Authority

Since taking power, this government has sought by all means to build on the achievements of its predecessors and to resolve the status of the West Bank in Israel's favor. It is based on a biblical ideological principle that "Judea and Samaria" is an authentic Jewish right that is not subject to negotiation, and an integral part of the State of Israel. On this basis, it has taken all necessary decisions and policies, and harnessed all available capabilities, to ensure the practical elimination of the "two-state solution", to completely prevent the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state. To ensure this, this government continues the process of fragmenting this land, to prevent its geographical unity, and to dismantle its Palestinian entity. For this reason, it continues on the path of its predecessors in separating the West Bank from the Gaza Strip, and in preventing the Palestinian Authority from extending its authority from the West Bank to the Gaza Strip. It even takes various measures that would weaken this authority, in an effort to gradually reduce its capabilities and role, leading to its complete elimination. On the other hand, it is also completing the fragmentation of the geography of the West Bank, and confining the Palestinians to closed enclaves with gates, separated from each other by lands classified as (C), and preparing to annex them in their entirety, and if this is impossible due to the desire to keep the Palestinians of the enclaves outside the legal scope of the State of Israel, then the annexation will be selective and will affect Area (C), which constitutes approximately two-thirds of the area of the West Bank. Although the Gaza Strip is no longer part of the annexation trend after the dismantling of the settlements and the withdrawal from within it, and after that it did not gain Israel’s attention, except with regard to security aspects, Operation “Noah’s Flood” brought it back to the circle of interest, and the goal of emptying it of the largest percentage of Palestinians, especially refugees, became an additional priority, and extreme right-wing voices have risen again demanding its reoccupation and settlement again.

Destroying the Gaza Strip and making it an uninhabitable place

Israel’s declared goal in waging war on the Strip following that operation was to eliminate Hamas, its military infrastructure, and end its rule over the Gaza Strip. Along with this declared goal came another goal: to destroy the Strip and make it uninhabitable, in order to force as many Palestinians as possible to leave it. The Israeli government exploited the focus of international attention on the horrors committed against the Gazans to accelerate and deepen its acquisitive control of the West Bank, armed with the shift in Israeli public opinion toward an increasing percentage of those who reject a political settlement with the Palestinians, in response to the attack in which Hamas surprised Israel.

The most right-wing circles in it believe that Trump's second term will be a golden opportunity to complete the annexation issue and close the file, especially since during his first term he showed his understanding and responsiveness to the Israeli desire, so he recognized the annexation of Jerusalem and moved his country's embassy to it, and also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan.

The parties agree on the goal of regional stability.

The ongoing interactions and transformations at the three levels - international, regional and Israeli - indicate that there is a common desire among them to arrange the situation in the region, even if their visions do not completely agree on the final outcomes of this arrangement. The three main parties - the American, Arab and Israeli - agree on the goal of achieving stability in the region, and on the necessity of translating Trump's desire to normalize Arab-Israeli relations, which he considers the basis of the desired stability, into a tangible reality. However, while agreeing on the general goal, there are different reasons and interests for the Arab and Israeli parties that must be taken into consideration. Although the position of most Arab regimes does not oppose normalization with Israel in principle, and some have already done so, the rest demand a protective cover for their involvement in it. This cover does not require much, but rather the minimum is sufficient, represented by opening a path to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with a promise that it will end with the establishment of a Palestinian state. This contradicts the position of the Israeli government, which wants to resolve the conflict through annexation, and is hesitant to enter into a negotiating process that promises, even in a non-binding form, the establishment of a Palestinian state. Reconciling the two positions requires external intervention, and both parties are waiting for the formula and content of the position that Trump will take after taking office to reconcile them.

If the obstacle to achieving stability in the region is linked to entering into a settlement process that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state, and awaits Trump’s position, then this position is clear and will not exceed in its highest ceiling what was previously presented in the “Deal of the Century.” Rather, what is most likely is that the recent changes that have occurred in the region will lead to a contraction of the “offer” included in that deal.

A political process in stages to satisfy Saudi Arabia and Israel

Trump's approach to the required settlement will remain as it was, expressing a pragmatic necessity, and not stemming from a conviction of the necessity of realizing a long-awaited right for the Palestinians. Therefore, he will most likely respond to the ultimate goal of the Saudi request that the final result of the settlement he will sponsor be the establishment of a Palestinian state, as this will lead to closing the file of the Palestinian issue and putting an end to a fundamental cause of the region's turmoil. Although this contradicts the Israeli position, Trump may divide his offer regarding the Palestinian state, so that he responds to the Israeli position that it does not include parts of the West Bank and is limited for a long period to the Gaza Strip, especially since Israeli considerations regarding the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are different, and are mainly limited to the Gaza Strip in terms of security. On this basis, if Trump decides to move forward and adopt a plan to resolve the conflict, he may build it this time on the basis that it will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, but it will be based on a path that requires several years to implement, passing through successive stages, each of which is based on the necessity of achieving positive results from the previous one.

The modified version of the "Deal of the Century"

The main features of the first phase of Trump’s new settlement, the modified version of the “Deal of the Century,” are likely to include reaching an agreement that ends the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and sets arrangements for a transitional phase that will likely include an international and Arab presence to assist a Palestinian “body,” loosely linked to the Palestinian Authority, in managing the Strip’s affairs. Hamas is excluded from formal participation in this “body,” but its retention of a “disruptive capacity” regarding the future of the Strip may lead to understandings with it in this regard. During this phase, security will be restored, rules will be established, and all necessary measures will be taken to ensure it in the future, in a manner that confirms the end of the security threat to Israel, which is the basic condition for lifting the Israeli veto on the establishment of a Palestinian state centered in the Gaza Strip. In conjunction with the expansion of the new security system, successive withdrawals of the Israeli army will take place, leading to its evacuation by the end of this phase. During this phase, a massive international and regional project to rebuild the Strip will also begin, which will also include the rehabilitation of areas in North Sinai to establish economic projects to absorb a significant portion of the Gazan workforce in the future. During this phase, essential measures will be implemented to rehabilitate the Palestinian Authority, currently based in Ramallah, to become a “renewed authority” capable of playing a growing role in governing the Gaza Strip during the second phase. This phase will also allow Hamas space to “rehabilitate” itself, and it will be encouraged to make the necessary changes to become an “acceptable” Palestinian political component.

As for the Israeli government, what is required of it during this stage is to accept this approach and maintain the legal status quo in the West Bank. If it expresses its opposition and persists, it will be targeted by Trump, which will contribute to overthrowing its current structure and replacing it with a structure that has the required flexibility. The prize waiting for Israel is great and it must not be missed or procrastinated regarding it, which is normalization with Saudi Arabia, whose demand will be met by Trump’s announcement and will open the doors of many Arab and Islamic capitals for it.

The legal dependency of the Palestinians in the West Bank will be transferred to the state in Gaza

The second phase will most likely witness the completion of the procedures that were launched in the first phase, but it will witness the announcement of the establishment of a Palestinian state that will be centered in the Gaza Strip, under the rule of the renewed Palestinian Authority, in which the transformed Hamas movement may participate. The legal dependence of the Palestinians in the West Bank will be transferred to this state the moment it is announced. Under intense international and regional sponsorship, and after ensuring adequate security arrangements for Israel, this state will be given gradually expanding aspects of sovereignty, including the establishment of an airport and a port. In return for this, there will be a price to be paid in the West Bank, which is American recognition, which may come at the end of Trump’s presidential term, of the official division of the West Bank, the annexation of large areas of Area C to Israel, and the implementation of the necessary arrangements to separate what will be annexed to Israel from the Palestinian enclaves, which will be linked together by outlets that will lead to reducing friction with the settlers, while maintaining the current situation that gives it an outlet with Jordan.

The Final Future of the Palestinian Enclaves in the West Bank

The third stage is when a decision will be made regarding the final future of the Palestinian enclaves in the West Bank. It is likely that special arrangements will be made to link these enclaves to the Palestinian state, although the issue of connecting them will face Israeli opposition, which will be difficult to overcome and will require many measures and guarantees. However, if these difficulties are overcome, it is likely that these enclaves will not enjoy the same level of sovereignty that will be concentrated in the Strip, and measures will be put in place to control movement between the two parts, ensuring that Gazans are not able to move and settle in the West Bank.

Based on what is known and circulated about Trump's personality, his way of thinking, and the way he makes his decisions, these are the general features of a possible "deal" that he might adopt for a settlement, on the basis that it constitutes a "compromise" and fulfills its status as a "minimum settlement" that serves the purpose of all parties and, from his point of view, brings them all out as winners. Although its implementation will take a period that may extend to a decade, from his point of view, it will contribute positively and quickly to stabilizing the situation in the region. It gives Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab countries, a way out to close a troubling file and move forward in establishing new relations and rules of work in the region. It also gives Israel, in addition to broad normalization in the region, the best possible treatment and achieves the greatest possible benefit for it, for a current situation with the Palestinians that is not capable or able to continue as it is for an open-ended period to come. It gives the Palestinians a state that he believes no one else will be able to achieve for them, and thus opens up hope for a better future.