Abdul Marouf: The Israeli army will continue its attacks and violations, but will not launch a large-scale war on Lebanon

Dr. Khaled Al-Azzi: The Israelis are working to create flimsy pretexts to continue their aggression, claiming that Hezbollah is continuing its violations

Nevin Abu Rahmoun: Hezbollah is currently adopting a military and security mentality that relies on reducing information and public statements

Rassem Obeidat: Hezbollah is closer to dissolving the agreement due to violations that have crossed all red lines

Dr. Hassan Marhej: The situation in Lebanon, especially in the south, is complex as a result of being affected by many regional and international factors.

Dr. Abdullah Nehme: Joseph Aoun is the most likely candidate for the presidency of Lebanon with Arab and international support and a large Lebanese consensus

The violations committed by the occupation army since the ceasefire agreement came into effect more than a month ago, which number more than 350 violations so far, clearly show the occupation state’s disregard for international agreements and norms, and reveal the truth of Israel’s intentions and plans for its forces to remain in Lebanon, especially in the areas south of the Litani River, which was officially issued by officials in Netanyahu’s government who said openly that they are not obligated to withdraw from southern Lebanon after the expiry of the sixty days stipulated in the agreement sponsored by the United States and France, and the ready excuse is Hezbollah’s failure to abide by its terms.

The recent statements of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem indicate the imminent explosion of the situation and the return of escalation, in light of the Israeli violations and breaches, as he said that resistance is a “cultural, religious, political and jihadi choice,” stressing that the opposite of resistance is “submitting to the enemy in what he wants to do for fear that he will harm us temporarily, but he takes everything for the future.”

Qassem explained that “the leadership of the resistance is the one that decides when to resist, how to resist, the method of resistance, and the weapon it uses,” stressing that “there is no timetable that determines the performance of the resistance, neither by agreement nor after the end of the 60-day period in the agreement. We said that we are giving an opportunity to prevent Israeli violations and implement the agreement, and that we will be patient. This does not mean that we will be patient for 60 days, nor does this mean that we will be patient for less or more than 60 days.”

Analysts and writers who spoke to "I" said that Israel is working to create flimsy pretexts to continue its aggression against Lebanon, claiming that Hezbollah continues its violations, stressing that Hezbollah is closer to dissolving the agreement due to the repeated violations that have crossed all red lines, but it is currently adopting a new military and security mentality that depends on reducing information and public statements.

The occupation army violated the agreement with Lebanon more than 350 times

Palestinian writer Abdul Marouf, who lives in Lebanon, said that since the signing of the ceasefire agreement on October 28, between Lebanon on behalf of Hezbollah and Israel, the Israeli occupation army has violated the terms of the agreement more than 350 times.

Marouf explained that these violations included the continued occupation of large areas of southern Lebanese territory, raids by Israeli warplanes on areas in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanese territory, in addition to the demolition and destruction of homes in occupied Lebanese towns and villages, and threatening residents of towns and villages in southern Lebanon not to return to their homes, properties and sources of livelihood.

Marouf pointed out that the Israeli occupation is still in a state of war with the Lebanese Hezbollah, and is still carrying out its aggressive actions despite Hezbollah’s commitment to the ceasefire decision and not responding to the sources of Israeli war fire. Hezbollah was satisfied that it would follow a policy of patience and waiting until then.

Marouf stated that in light of this military and political scene in southern Lebanon, the Israeli leadership is threatening that its army will not withdraw from the areas it occupied last summer, and it has confirmed that the army will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah abides by all the signed terms and ensures the deployment of the Lebanese army in cooperation with the international emergency forces in the areas south of the Litani River.

Israel considers the ceasefire agreement a victory for it

He added: Tel Aviv accuses the Lebanese side of not withdrawing Hezbollah's elite forces and strategic weapons from southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army has not yet deployed and taken over Hezbollah's sites and tunnels.

Marouf believes that the Israeli army will continue its attacks and violations, but will not launch a large-scale war against Lebanon as was the case last summer.

He pointed out that Tel Aviv sees the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon as a victory for it, and that it has guaranteed many of its goals, and therefore it is exerting pressure through its attacks on Lebanon to pressure the Lebanese government to withdraw Hezbollah forces and weapons, and hand over its positions under the supervision of the international emergency forces and the five-member committee.

He said: "In light of the deteriorating internal Lebanese situation, it seems that Hezbollah does not see that it is in its interest to have a large-scale war with the Israeli army, and therefore it is no longer in the interest of the Lebanese and Israeli sides to have a large-scale war in southern Lebanon."

Possibility of extending the truce with Lebanon for a month or two

Marouf expected that the visit of the American envoy, sponsor of the agreement, and with the approaching end of the truce on December 27, the international community would work with the approval of the parties to the Lebanese and Israeli conflict to extend the truce for another month or two, stressing that the Israeli army would not stop its attacks, aggression and violations against Lebanese sovereignty during this period.

Marouf pointed out that the difficult financial, economic, military and political conditions that Hezbollah and Lebanon in general are suffering from, in addition to the ambiguity of talk about the possibility of electing a new president for Lebanon on the scheduled date of January 9, will keep the military situation in southern Lebanon as it is in the coming days, not only because of the Israeli demands, but also because the Israeli Prime Minister believes that through war and aggression he will achieve his goals of eliminating the resistance in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon.

The situation in southern Lebanon is still very difficult.

For his part, Lebanese analyst Dr. Khaled Al-Azzi confirmed that the situation in southern Lebanon is still very difficult, as the Israelis continue to carry out their attacks within the framework of the agreed-upon terms. This is represented in responding to what they see as a security or abnormal threat through air strikes and the use of drones, under the pretext of targeting Hezbollah military sites.

He believes that the Israeli side claims that Hezbollah has not implemented the agreed-upon terms yet, and seeks through its Chief of Staff and Minister of Defense to emphasize that if Hezbollah does not commit to implementing Agreement No. 1701, Israel will be obligated to either withdraw from this agreement or extend it for a future period.

Al-Azzi stressed that the Israelis are working to create flimsy pretexts to continue their aggression against Lebanon, claiming that Hezbollah is continuing its violations and preventing the implementation of the decisions that allow the Lebanese army and the international emergency forces to deploy south of the Litani River.

The Lebanese army takes over only two towns!

He said: "So far, the Lebanese army has only taken over two towns. The first is the town of Khiyam, where the army has begun work on removing mines and war remnants, in addition to removing the rubble and recovering the bodies that are still under the rubble.

Yesterday, the Israelis agreed to hand over the town of Naqoura to the Lebanese army, so that its forces could withdraw to the Ras al-Naqoura area.

However, Al-Azzi stressed that the Israeli army continues its clear violations, such as storming, burning, or demolishing homes, under the pretext that they pose a strategic threat. The Israelis insist on removing Hezbollah to the north of the Litani River and handing over its weapons to the Lebanese state.

He pointed out that the Israelis claim that the Lebanese army is not yet ready to take over these areas and search for weapons, warehouses and tunnels. The Israelis justify their violations with security arguments to ensure their continued presence in the region, claiming that there is a permanent threat in southern Lebanon, which justifies their continued military preparations and targeting.

Al-Azzi explained that the Israelis intend to strengthen their security measures, including the establishment of new barriers to protect the border settlements. Some wonder whether these barriers will be concrete walls similar to the apartheid wall in Jerusalem, or violent security measures that prevent residents of the southern villages from returning to their homes.

Hezbollah is trying to circumvent the agreement!

In contrast, Al-Azzi said that Hezbollah is trying to circumvent the agreement it signed, which indicates the responsibility of the Lebanese state to implement it. So far, the details of the agreement have not been clearly revealed, whether it is related to the withdrawal only north of the South Litani area, or the gradual handover of weapons and the drawing of borders.

He said that the new statements of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah confirm that the party has regained its strength and is ready to respond if the truce ends, adding: The party says that Israel bears responsibility for violating the agreement, and that the Israeli occupation of the southern territories will justify Hezbollah's resumption of resistance operations.

Al-Azzi stressed that this escalation redirects the scene towards a new cycle of conflict, as Israel exploits these circumstances to continue its violations, including the use of drones and targeting Lebanese sovereignty, without reaching a clear understanding that guarantees the protection of Lebanon's security and sovereignty.

The new regional reality and Israeli plans

In turn, political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Nevin Abu Rahmon, confirmed that she is not convinced that Israel will abide by the ceasefire.

She pointed out that there are two main reasons behind this: the first is Israel's failure to achieve its most important goal of eliminating the resistance, and the second is its exploitation of the new Syrian situation, which represents a gateway to bypass Lebanon again, with the aim of achieving the goal that was not achieved in the war, which is crushing the resistance.

Abu Rahmon explained that the new regional reality has given Israel the opportunity to continue its war through other means, pointing to the existence of a broad political project that includes Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, and even extends to many Arab countries.

Abu Rahmon pointed out that Israel has strategic plans based on the doctrine of "Greater Israel", which reflects its expansionist ambitions aimed at changing the geography and sovereignty in the region to achieve control over natural resources such as water, gas and sea destinations.

Abu Rahmoun referred to the speech of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, and said, "The party appears different this time as a result of the lessons and morals learned from the war."

Hezbollah is currently adopting a new military and security mentality.

She explained that Hezbollah is currently adopting a new military and security mentality that relies on reducing information and public statements related to its military capabilities, readiness, and future plans.

She added: "We no longer hear threats at the level of deterrence as was customary in the party, and there is no participation in military or security details, nor even in publicly revealing breaches."

She stressed that the party's military strategy and combat doctrine are witnessing a transformation at this stage, a transformation stemming from the party's internal circumstances and regional changes.

She pointed out that this change reflects the flexibility of the resistance and its ability to adapt and recover, in line with the lessons learned from the war, which contributes to changing the paths of the party's security mentality.

She explained that this new strategy shows strength and balance in dealing with Israel, which is a security and colonial case, in addition to taking into account the internal Lebanese affair and Syrian developments.

Abu Rahmon concluded her speech by saying: “This stage is one of the most difficult stages that our Palestinian people, and indeed the entire Arab nation, are going through, in terms of identity and the features of the region. The coming days will be difficult on all levels.”

Netanyahu seeks to impose new deterrent equations

Writer and political analyst Rasim Obeidat said that the armistice agreement in southern Lebanon, based on UN Resolution 1701, is facing the risk of collapse in light of the continued intensive Israeli violations and geostrategic shifts in the region.

Obeidat confirmed that Israel has violated the truce more than 380 times since the signing of the agreement, as it launched raids and bombed Hezbollah sites, and targeted the Bekaa and the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon.

He explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to impose new deterrent equations based on the "battle between two wars" strategy, taking advantage of regional changes, especially in Syria.

Obaidat pointed out that the committee supervising the implementation of the agreement, which includes the United States and France, is completely biased towards Israel, which reinforces its sense of immunity and encourages it to expand its attacks.

He added that the international community has not taken any steps to pressure Israel to stop its violations.

Obeidat believes that Hezbollah made a mistake by accepting to abide by the agreement without referring to the Security Council, and today it is giving the Lebanese state an opportunity to deal with the Israeli violations.

However, he stressed that the party was closer to dissolving the agreement due to the repeated violations, which crossed all red lines.

Incident of inspection of the plane returning from Iran

He said: "In recent statements, Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, confirmed that the resistance's patience is linked to its decision regarding the timing of the response to Israeli violations."

He added: "The leadership of the resistance is the one that decides when and how to confront the aggression," noting that the resistance's patience may run out before the 60-day deadline for the agreement expires.

Obeidat pointed out that Israel is working to exploit the current circumstances to strengthen its control, including destroying Hezbollah's tunnels and infrastructure and building a new defense system in southern Lebanon.

He added that US support for Israel, including an $8 billion arms deal, bolsters Tel Aviv's plans for regional hegemony.

On the domestic front, Obeidat stressed that some Lebanese political forces allied with the West are seeking to weaken the resistance and destabilize national unity.

He referred to the incident of searching the Lebanese plane returning from Iran, which targeted passengers from a certain sect, considering it an indication of attempts to inflame sectarian divisions.

Obaidat explained that the truce agreement in the south faces major challenges, in light of ongoing Israeli violations, clear international bias, and complex regional transformations. He said, "With the 60-day deadline approaching, it seems that the region is heading towards a potential escalation, amid the absence of any signs of a comprehensive political or security solution."

Escalation in Lebanon is not ruled out

In turn, the expert in Middle East affairs, Dr. Hassan Marhej, confirmed that the situation in Lebanon, especially in the south, is complex as a result of being affected by many regional and international factors.

He pointed out that the ceasefire file and the implementation of the agreement decision are governed by a number of scenarios that may vary according to developments in the scene.

Marhej explained that if the Israeli violations continue and the Lebanese government and Hezbollah refuse to implement the agreements, we may witness a military escalation. It is expected that Hezbollah will respond to these violations, which will lead to a new round of confrontations and the renewal of the war.

He stressed that such a scenario requires a political settlement that the parties concerned with the Lebanese file, including the United Nations and major powers, are working on to ensure Israel's withdrawal and the establishment of borders, which may contribute to calming the situation.

Marhej stressed that failure to reach an agreement could lead to continued exchange of violations and threats, which would exacerbate the suffering of civilians in the region.

He added: This scenario calls for international intervention through monitoring missions or diplomatic pressure to impose an agreement that ensures stability in the south and prevents escalation.

Marhej stressed that the proposed scenarios depend on how the concerned parties interact with events on the ground.

At the end of his interview with Al-Quds, Marhej pointed out the important role of regional and international powers in finding practical and sustainable solutions that guarantee stability in Lebanon and reduce tension between the Lebanese and Israeli sides.

Lebanon's infrastructure will be the target of any potential escalation

Lebanese analyst Dr. Abdullah Nehme said that under the assumption that war will return to Lebanon, the infrastructure throughout Lebanese territory will be subject to major targeting, which did not happen in the last aggression on Lebanon.

He explained that the cost of destroying this infrastructure would be very huge, and could exceed two billion US dollars within only 15 days of the aggression.

"The tourism sector, which lost about 3 billion US dollars last year, will witness additional huge losses in the event of a new aggression," Nehme added.

He also pointed out that the GDP could suffer a significant decline of more than 10% per day if economic activity is targeted as a result of a military escalation.

Nehme touched on the Lebanese presidential elections scheduled for January 9, expecting that Joseph Aoun would be the most likely candidate with Arab and international support and a large Lebanese consensus.

He stressed that Saudi Arabia and Egypt support this trend, which bodes well for Lebanon's return to the path of economic prosperity and reconstruction.

He also pointed out that Lebanon today enjoys international attention that it has not witnessed since its independence in 1943, while stressing the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 to the letter without amendment.

Nehme expressed his confidence in Lebanon's future, which will witness excellent relations with all countries of the world, noting that the country has become under international care after it moved away from the Iranian axis, which no longer has an influence on Lebanon, and its influence will also decline in Syria and Gaza soon.