Sawsan Sarour: Netanyahu is not interested in reaching any agreement with Hamas until it is eliminated and an absolute victory emerges

Ali Al-Awar: Netanyahu is suffering from pressures and a constitutional legal crisis and is trying to avoid making decisions that could lead to the disintegration of his government coalition

Ismail Muslimani: Netanyahu fears that completing the exchange deal now will open the prison doors for him and the fall of his government

Suleiman Abu Sitta: The Israeli opposition lacks a leader... and the demonstrations are still unable to exert real pressure on Netanyahu

Ismat Mansour: Netanyahu seeks a deal that does not shake his coalition, endanger his government, or reduce his popularity among the right-wing public

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s denial of the news circulating about a limited prisoner exchange deal is not surprising, and should not surprise anyone. This matter has been repeated time and time again throughout the fourteen months of war, and with the same scenario literally, starting with leaks followed by leaks, without any of the concerned parties, specifically the mediating parties, coming out to deny or confirm what is being rumored. When matters are approaching their desired conclusions for the people of the Strip who have suffered from rocket fire, hunger and displacement, Netanyahu comes out denying that there is any approval on his part for a prisoner exchange deal that would pave the way for stopping the war of extermination.

Netanyahu seems like a skilled circus performer who walks the tightrope of politics, or holds the strings of the game, so that he continues the holocaust in the Gaza Strip, and at the same time convinces international parties, especially the American side, that he is engaged in a political process, and convinces the Israeli street and the families of those detained in Gaza, that he is keen to end the suffering of their children, without losing his popularity and audience among the extreme right, his powerful partner in the ruling coalition.

This is not the first time that Netanyahu has evaded the existence of an imminent prisoner exchange agreement. More than a year ago, US President Joe Biden came out and announced an initiative that Israel agreed to end the war, and it quickly turned into an international initiative. However, Netanyahu quickly denied any knowledge of or approval of the initiative, and the rounds of negotiations continued in Cairo and Doha, and were about to bear fruit, so Netanyahu quickly denied any agreements, because he is not interested in stopping the war, and all he wants is to buy time to carry out his crimes, commit massacres, and wipe out the Strip under the cover of these negotiations.

Writers and analysts who spoke to “Y” saw that Netanyahu is not interested in reaching any agreement with Hamas until it is eliminated and emerges with an image of absolute victory, pointing out that Netanyahu is facing pressures from within and from the United States, and is facing criminal cases, and is trying to avoid making decisions that could lead to the disintegration of his government coalition, especially since the Israeli street has not yet reached a stage where it poses a threat to Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition.

Media and political leaks to create an atmosphere of optimism

“The region has witnessed a dramatic upward shift in the past week, which has had the rapid impact of collapsing the imaginary dominoes that were being engineered in both Qatar and Egypt, as rumors of a prisoner exchange deal were circulating,” said Sawsan Sarour, an observer and critic of the political scene in Israel.

She pointed out that the atmosphere and media and political leaks were aimed at creating an atmosphere of optimism regarding the ceasefire and reaching a prisoner exchange deal.

Surur stressed that the clear Israeli goal was to send a message to the current American administration, which has devoted itself to defending the Israeli government throughout the war, and to the “friend” President-elect Trump, about Israel’s sincere intention to conclude the deal, and that the only one obstructing its implementation is Hamas, and no one else. This is a narrative that the American administration hastened to adopt, as we have seen before, and in a successive manner throughout the past year.

She noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not, and is not, interested in reaching any agreement with Hamas, except after eliminating it completely, and emerging with the image of the alleged absolute victory that he has been panting after since the setback of October 7, 2023, Black Saturday, the day on which the concepts of security, safety, military power, and economic and social immunity, which Israel has always relied on and waved, were overturned.

Netanyahu's explicit statements rejecting a deal with Hamas

"To confirm this position, Netanyahu conducted an interview a few days ago with the American Wall Street Journal in which he stated that he would not agree to a deal that would end the war with Hamas and that he would not stop the war during the negotiations," Surur added.

Surur considered these statements to be not new, but they were shocking in their timing and publicity, until someone came to consolidate and deepen this trend, this time at the height of the recent negotiations, where Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced from the Salah al-Din (Philadelphi) axis that the Israeli army would not leave Gaza and would remain there, which sparked denounced reactions in the Israeli media and among the families of the detainees in particular.

She saw that it was a programmed and agreed-upon series between the two people, which is what Netanyahu had been looking for for more than a year, an agreement between him and the Minister of Defense after he ousted Minister Galant, who often disagreed with him on the issue of stopping the war and releasing the detainees.

She said: "The war trinity announced by the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, Herzi Halevi, a few days ago, is in harmony with the readiness to expand the war in the Gaza Strip, and to reinforce the forces with an additional division. All of this is in order to establish the saying: 'What does not come by force, comes by more force', and to distance any deal from being reached."

Sarour confirmed that Netanyahu does not want to end the war in Gaza, nor does he want to leave Gaza, and wants it to be a buffer zone to maintain the security of the surrounding settlements. He is looking for an imaginary victory that will restore his face, and for that reason he makes up excuses every time to prevent the deal from being completed.

She added: Although recent opinion polls indicate that the number of seats obtained by the Likud Party will be reduced from 25 seats to 23, it keeps it ahead of the rest of the opposition parties.

Netanyahu will not yield to Yemen's threats

Regarding the recent Houthi attacks on Israel in the past week and their impact on the negotiations, Sarour explained that Netanyahu is the only one who has the final say in the State of Israel, at least with regard to the recent wars, and the dramatic transformations achieved in the region, which Netanyahu called achievements, whether in Gaza, Lebanon or Syria, have whetted his appetite, and he will not submit to Yemen’s threats.

She continued: "Reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is what Yemen seeks, as it always announces that it conditions the cessation of its military operations on the cessation of the war on Gaza and the lifting of the siege on it, and Netanyahu will not grant them this victory.

She pointed out that Netanyahu will not stop the war on Gaza, and will not reach any deals, neither partial nor complete, except after more and more killing, brutality, and the taking of innocent lives in search of the image of the alleged and delusional absolute victory.

The opposition in Israel was described as fragile and weak, and the statements of its leader Yair Lapid and the head of the Democrats, Yair Golan, regarding the necessity of concluding a deal in order to save the remaining 100 detainees in Gaza, will remain mere words on the airwaves if the opposition does not return to the streets in force, as it did in the first half of last year. Likewise, the demonstrations of the detainees’ families, which take place daily to demand a swap deal, have not yet had a tangible impact on Netanyahu.

On the other hand, Sarour said that the former head of the Israeli military intelligence service "Aman", Amos Yadlin, calls for stopping the war in favor of a deal, saying that even those who do not have a heart must have a mind - and the mind says that the work of the Israeli army will be more intensive and effective when there are no prisoners. But it seems that Netanyahu's megalomania is distancing the heart and mind of this troubled person.

Surur concluded that there is no mini-deal, no interim deal, and no full deal to end the war in the near future.

Keeping negotiations on a prisoner exchange deal secret

For his part, Ali Al-Awar, a specialist in resolving regional and international conflicts, said: Netanyahu is still suffering from a legal and constitutional crisis, in addition to being exposed to great internal pressures and pressures from the new US administration, specifically from US President Donald Trump. But Netanyahu is trying to avoid making decisions that could lead to the disintegration of the government coalition he leads.

Al-Awar added: “Despite the prisoners’ families’ declaration that Netanyahu is primarily responsible for the lives of the kidnapped prisoners, he insists on keeping the negotiations on the prisoner exchange deal secret, in order to preserve the government coalition with his partners Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Netanyahu seeks to achieve a partial prisoner exchange deal as a political gift to US President Donald Trump before his inauguration in the White House. At the same time, Netanyahu is trying to portray himself as someone who balances internal pressures with regional and international variables.”

Al-Awar stressed that: “Netanyahu is trying to exploit this deal to ease the internal pressure resulting from the demonstrations led by the families of the kidnapped, which have the support of the Israeli opposition. He is also seeking to maintain the cohesion of the government coalition and avoid its disintegration, especially since any collapse could lead to early elections.”

Regarding Netanyahu's political aspirations, Al-Awar said: "Netanyahu is now focused on achieving full normalization with Saudi Arabia as a major political achievement to his credit. Netanyahu believes that normalization with Saudi Arabia in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the war will be considered a sure victory for him in front of Israeli society. He believes that the military operations have achieved their goals, including eliminating a large part of Hamas's military capabilities, and that now is the right time to seek a diplomatic achievement."

Al-Awar concluded his speech by saying: The group of political and regional developments play a major role in pressuring Netanyahu, but he is focusing on achieving diplomatic gains, most notably normalization with Saudi Arabia, to return to Tel Aviv crowned with an unprecedented political achievement in the history of Israeli prime ministers.

Netanyahu denies reports of limited deal

In turn, Ismail Musalmani, an expert on Israeli affairs, said that Netanyahu’s denial of the limited deal news could have several interpretations, noting that it is possible that there are already ongoing negotiations, but Netanyahu may seek to avoid public or political pressure that may arise from announcing these negotiations at this sensitive time.

"Netanyahu's statement about a small deal raises questions, especially since Netanyahu is looking for an absolute victory to serve his election propaganda, in light of recent opinion polls, which showed that 70% of the public is dissatisfied with the government," Musalmani added.

He continued: "It seems that Netanyahu is currently unwilling to reach any agreement that might show him in a weak position. Instead, he is trying to plant the idea of achieving victory in the consciousness of the Israeli street."

He pointed out that the recent military escalation, including the heavy bombing and burning of Kamal Adwan Hospital, comes within the framework of pressuring Hamas to surrender and raise the white flag.

Netanyahu continues to procrastinate and evade

He explained that Netanyahu fears that completing a prisoner exchange deal at this stage will open the prison doors to him and bring down his government, so he continues to procrastinate and evade and set complex conditions as he did in the past.

Regarding the demonstrations inside Israel, Musalmani sees them as reflecting a state of dissatisfaction and popular pressure on the government to take concrete steps. However, the Israeli opposition remains weak and lacks an alternative program that could pose a real threat to Netanyahu.

"The question that arises is: Will Netanyahu fulfill Trump's promises to end the war? We cannot ignore Trump's previous statements calling on Netanyahu to make progress to achieve victory," Musalmani said.

He explained that this may explain the continued bombing and military escalation to please far-right parties such as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, while trying to reach a deal before Trump officially takes office. Here the question arises: Is Trump seeking to turn the Middle East into hell? Or is it just a means of pressuring Hamas to accept Israeli conditions?

Netanyahu does not want a comprehensive deal, but rather seeks to continue the war

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Abu Sitta said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed to deny the news of the limited deal because of the existence of great opposition within the Israeli entity, especially from the families of the prisoners, who are demanding a comprehensive deal.

He pointed out that this comprehensive deal could lead to ending the war and releasing all prisoners, but Netanyahu rejects this and insists on a limited deal that will last for two months, during which about thirty Israeli prisoners will be released.

Abu Sitta stressed that Netanyahu does not want a comprehensive deal, but rather seeks to continue the war.

He said: In my opinion, he is the one who obstructed reaching a final deal by setting new conditions, including a condition related to the list of names of living and dead prisoners, and another condition related to demands to release 11 female soldiers.

He added that many Israeli politicians confirmed that Netanyahu sets new conditions every time to disrupt the negotiations.

Regarding the limited deal, Abu Sitta said: I do not believe that there are ongoing negotiations in this direction. The resistance was aiming for a deal that would end the war, but the occupation's insistence on continuing the war pushed it to accept a temporary deal.

He added: However, I do not think that the resistance will make more concessions and accept a limited partial deal, because no one in the Gaza Strip wants the release of the Israeli prisoners before the war stops, which is a basic demand of all Palestinian citizens and resistance factions.

He stressed that the compromise that was reached was to go to a phased deal, which the resistance agreed to with the awareness that Netanyahu might not commit to a second phase. Therefore, there is no point in accepting a limited deal in which a small number of prisoners are released in exchange for a short-term cessation of the war, and then resuming it again. He considered that this matter might cause the resistance to lose some of its important negotiating cards without achieving a real price, especially since this deal will not include the essential issues such as the occupation’s withdrawal from the Netzarim and Philadelphi axis, or the return of the displaced to their destroyed homes.

As for the demonstrations in Israel, writer Abu Sitta believes that they are still unable to exert real pressure on Netanyahu.

He said: The Israeli opposition lacks a leader capable of organizing it in a way that guarantees pressure on Netanyahu to end the war.

Abu Sitta concluded by saying: It is difficult to reach a real deal before the end of Biden's term, because the main problem lies with Netanyahu, who sees the continuation of the war as a way to save his government, escape political trials, and bear responsibility for the major failure that occurred on October 7.

Netanyahu is not serious about the deal

For his part, Esmat Mansour, a journalist and analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, said that Netanyahu's denial of the limited deal clearly reflects that he is not serious about the deal.

He added: What Netanyahu fears most in this context is the impact of the deal on his audience, especially the right-wing audience and his government coalition. Therefore, he is always quick to deny any progress, so as not to appear as if there are positive moves that might arouse internal opposition, which would lead to destabilizing the coalition or bringing it into discussions about the required price, which might restrict it.

Mansour explained that Netanyahu seeks a deal that does not shake his coalition, does not endanger his government, and does not reduce his popularity among the right-wing and extremist public. This is the decisive factor in Netanyahu’s approach to any negotiations or deal.

As for the Israeli demonstrations, Mansour pointed out that they move the issue and keep it under discussion, but they do not have the ability to decide as long as they do not constitute actual pressure on the government or a real threat to its stability or the possibility of its overthrow. Unfortunately, this reality makes their influence weak and ineffective in Netanyahu’s decisions.

Regarding the issue of Trump assuming office, Mansour stressed the need to stop at it. He said: Trump, despite his threats to everyone, focuses primarily on mediators and Hamas in his promises.

He added that Netanyahu may see this stage as an opportunity to get closer to Trump's arrival in power or even wait until after he takes office, in the hope that this will give him additional tools.

Mansour said: These tools may include American pressure on Qatar, Egypt and Hamas, in addition to giving Netanyahu a free hand to intensify humanitarian pressure in Gaza and continue military operations.