Dr. Rafat Sayed Ahmed: What is happening now is just a game to buy time and is not an indication that the end of the war on Gaza is near

Aziz Al-Assa: Reaching a truce in the coming few days is an urgent need for the two major parties in the United States

Dr. Hossam Al-Dajani: Recent political developments greatly support the possibility of reaching a prisoner exchange deal

Wadih Awawdeh: Reports related to the deal contain exaggerations and some of them aim to meet internal Israeli needs

Thaer Abu Ras: Netanyahu is caught between the hammer of American pressure and the anvil of the extreme right, and this explains his hesitation in making decisions

Osama Al-Sharif: Netanyahu is monitoring the internal scene and seeking to secure his government coalition after reaching a ceasefire

There has been much talk recently about an imminent agreement regarding a prisoner exchange deal between the Israeli occupation state and the Palestinian resistance in Gaza, through mediators, which has revived hope in the souls of the people of the Gaza Strip that the war of extermination, whose woes they have tasted in death, terror, destruction, hunger and displacement, will soon end, as has never happened to any people on the face of the earth.

But the deal, as it seems, is stuck at a station it will not leave, the station of procrastination and stalling by the head of the occupation government, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is, as some analysts see it, between the pressures being exerted on him on the one hand by the incoming US President Donald Trump, who wants to start his term in the White House without any troubles, but rather with achievements that he attributes to himself, even if they began during the term of his predecessor Joe Biden, who is preparing to leave, and on the other hand, his partners in the ruling far-right coalition, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and others.

Writers and analysts who spoke to Al-Quds considered what is happening to be a game of buying time by Netanyahu, and not an indication of the imminent end of the war on the Gaza Strip, as long as his government is not exposed to real pressures that force it to stop the war.

They attributed the delay in completing the deal to the Israeli government’s hesitation and inability to make a final decision, and its fear of the day after the war. Some believed that the Israeli government played a role in exaggerating these reports that talk about an imminent agreement, with the aim of easing internal pressure from the Israeli street and the families of the prisoners, especially with the escalation of external pressure on Israel.

Israel does not face a real threat to stop the war

The director of the Jaffa Center for Studies and Research in Cairo, Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed, considered that what is happening now is just a game to buy time, and not an indication that the end of the war on the Gaza Strip is near.

He stressed that Netanyahu does not face a real threat, and that the Israeli extremist government is not under pressure to make any deal at the present time.

Ahmed explained that Israel is working to exploit the transitional period between the current US administration and the next administration led by Trump, as it aims to buy time until next January, the date when Trump officially assumes the presidency.

He pointed out that this Israeli strategy is not affected by any external pressures, whether Arab, regional, or international.

He added: "Netanyahu continues the policy of killing and refusing to make deals, which reflects the lack of seriousness in ending the aggressive war on Gaza."

Ahmed considered that Netanyahu is playing with the time factor in coordination with the US administration, hoping that there will be a possible deal after the new administration takes office, pointing out that this waiting may be accompanied by more killing and destruction of Palestinians, especially innocent civilians.

Sayed Ahmed concluded by saying: “What we are witnessing now is nothing but buying time, not an end to the conflict or war.”

Ensuring absolute security for Israel

For his part, Jerusalemite political analyst Aziz Al-Assa said that reaching a truce in the coming few days represents an urgent need for the two main parties in the United States.

He explained that the current ruling Democratic Party seeks to end the war in Gaza in a way that preserves Israel's security, which strengthens its position in the upcoming presidential elections, while the Republican Party, which will soon assume power, is interested in discussing the post-aggression file on Gaza in a way that guarantees absolute security for Israel.

He added: The party coming to power (the Republican Party) is also concerned with discussing the issue of what comes after the aggression on Gaza, in a way that preserves absolute security for Israel.

Al-Assa stressed that between these and those American goals stands the strong and solid Palestinian will, which has proven its presence in the military field, and which has been sealed with the blood of nearly fifty thousand martyrs - most of whom are children, women and the elderly - and almost four times that number of wounded, disabled and missing. It will have the final say at the negotiating table.

He explained that in all cases, the most important strategic question remains: What about the day after the cessation of aggression on the Gaza Strip? This is a question that will be answered after the end of the first stage, and what measures will be taken on the ground, in terms of the precise and serious implementation of what is signed by all parties.

Israel and the Question of the Day After War

Al-Assa said: “On the ground, there is something that dispels these plans, according to the deception, procrastination and breaches enjoyed by the Israeli right-wing government, in comparison to what it did in Lebanon after the ceasefire agreement, pointing out that this is due to the fact that this government, which raised a dual slogan of “subjugating the Palestinian people and achieving absolute victory over them,” lives with an obsession that worries it, and even makes it revolve around itself in a state of extreme fear and anxiety about the day after the war, when the Gaza Strip emerges victorious with its steadfastness and refusal to surrender - according to the Israeli vision - despite the destruction and the smell of death spread everywhere by the Israeli occupation forces, which has stigmatized Israel and its leadership with the shame of genocide and ethnic cleansing.

He stressed that the threat to all cities of the occupying state, which is still coming from Yemen, adds a security and political burden on the shoulders of the occupying government, which cannot be ignored.

He pointed to the state of security, economic, political - and to some extent social - confusion that the occupying state will suffer from the day after the war, which will burden the Israeli leadership that promised its society an absolute victory that will make the Israeli sleep in honey happily and contentedly.

The stick concluded by stressing that the current right-wing government will squander any solution unless it is imposed on it and forced by the American sponsor to accept it.

Israel and the United States' Priorities

In turn, political analyst Dr. Hossam Al-Dajani said that recent political developments greatly support the possibility of reaching a prisoner exchange deal.

He explained that Donald Trump's rise to power, along with the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and what happened in Syria, showed the Israeli military establishment's awareness of the futility of military action as a means of liberating Israeli prisoners.

Al-Dajani pointed out that the arrangement of priorities for Israel and the United States in the next stage, where the Iranian nuclear program file, the annexation plan in the West Bank, and the promotion of the Abrahamic peace are at the forefront of the political scene, affects other issues and pushes towards concluding a deal.

He added: "The increasing pressure from the families of Israeli prisoners on their government is an additional factor that reinforces this trend."

Information about progress in negotiations

Al-Dajani confirmed that the leaked information indicates some progress in the negotiations, as Israel is demanding a list of the names of the living prisoners, while the resistance is stipulating a one-week truce to list the names or obtain the full list without announcing their fate.

Al-Dajani explained that the political changes internally and externally pushed the negotiations forward, despite the obstacles placed by Israel on the negotiating table, such as its rejection of the temporary truce and its insistence on searching the displaced and revealing the names of the prisoners.

"Despite Israel's attempt to buy time, the mediators are working diligently to push the process forward, which increases the chances of achieving the deal," he said.

Al-Dajani stressed the importance of popular pressure from Israeli society on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push him to overcome the challenges of the extreme right, which seeks to thwart any progress in the negotiations, which is necessary to complete the deal.

Relieving internal pressure from the Israeli street

Israeli affairs expert Wadih Awawdeh said, "From the beginning, he was skeptical about the credibility of the reports related to the prisoner exchange deal, stressing that these reports contain exaggerations and rumors, and some of them aim to meet internal needs."

He added: "The Israeli government played a role in exaggerating these reports with the aim of easing internal pressure from the Israeli street and the families of the prisoners, especially with the escalation of pressure on Israel.

Awawdeh pointed out that there is a large gap between the Palestinian and Israeli positions on some key points in the deal, such as the number of prisoners to be released, the fate of the Palestinians who will be exiled, in addition to Israel’s commitment to complete the second round of the deal and not back down from it. He also mentioned that there are internal doubts in Israel about whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue with this humanitarian deal or back out of it at the last moment.

Israeli fear of the scene of the released Palestinian prisoners

Awawdeh explained that there is a fear within the Israeli government, especially among Netanyahu, that the image of Palestinian prisoners who will leave the occupation prisons with their heads held high may be “unbearable,” in light of the optimistic statements about the victories and gains that have been achieved.

He said: "The release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in one batch could change the picture significantly and leave an impact on the Israeli, Palestinian and global consciousness, which contradicts the desires of Netanyahu, who seeks to appear as the "Churchill of Israel" and ensure his historical status.

He added: "Netanyahu may seek to postpone the deal repeatedly until he finds a major event that will help him pass the deal, balancing the image that may be established about the Palestinians and the prisoners."

He pointed out that the Israeli project includes normalization with Saudi Arabia and striking Iran, which makes the deal a postponed issue until the president changes in the White House, considering that any talk about a real deal will remain within the framework of chatter until this change occurs.

Pressure from the Trump administration on Israel

For his part, Thaer Abu Ras, a researcher specializing in American and Israeli affairs, said that the Israeli government's hesitation reflects its inability so far to make a final decision regarding moving toward a prisoner exchange deal.

He explained that there is tremendous pressure being exerted on Israel by the Trump administration to push it to accept the deal, as Trump wants the deal to start during Biden's term, but to continue and be completed in his next presidential term, so that it is recorded as a political achievement for him with the release of detainees holding Israeli or American citizenship from Gaza.

Abu Ras pointed out that Netanyahu realizes that it is not in his interest to anger Trump, but at the same time he faces strong opposition from his allies on the far right, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who refuse to cease fire or end the war without achieving tangible political gains.

He explained that these allies are pushing towards building settlements in the Gaza Strip, specifically in the north of the Strip, as a symbolic step towards returning to Gaza.

Disagreements over Palestinian prisoners hinder deal

Abu Ras added: Netanyahu finds himself between the hammer of American pressure and the anvil of the demands of the extreme right, which explains the state of hesitation that dominates his decisions.

He stressed that this hesitation is primarily aimed at buying time rather than reflecting an approach to a clear end to the crisis, especially with Trump's insistence on achieving a political accomplishment through the prisoner swap deal.

Abu Ras pointed out that the issue of Palestinian prisoners remains a major obstacle to completing the deal.

He explained that Israel is demanding the deportation of prominent leaders such as Marwan Barghouti, Abbas al-Sayed and Abdullah Barghouti to third countries, such as Qatar, which Hamas rejects. Researcher Abu Ras confirmed that the pending issues and current differences reflect an Israeli attempt to buy more time in light of the pressure of the Trump administration to complete the deal.

Netanyahu delays improving terms of deal

In turn, Jordanian analyst Osama Al-Sharif said that the decision is up to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is trying to procrastinate while seeking to improve the terms of the deal.

He pointed out that Netanyahu is closely monitoring the Israeli domestic scene, especially his partners in the government coalition, and he is seeking to ensure the survival of this coalition after reaching a ceasefire.

Al-Sharif explained that it is not unlikely that Netanyahu will try to jump forward and enter into new electoral calculations if his current government collapses.

He pointed out that Netanyahu is fully aware that there is a specific date set by the next US President, Donald Trump, to complete the deal, and this date is very close, only days away, not weeks.

The Jordanian analyst said: "From here, the agreement becomes a matter of time, and Netanyahu is thinking about what comes after the agreement and how he can circumvent it after achieving it."

He pointed out that this includes thinking about his future options regarding Gaza, and the day after the deal.

Al-Sharif added: "Even completing the deal will not be in the interest of Hamas or the people of Gaza in general, even if a ceasefire is reached, explaining that the challenges will remain, whether in terms of reconstruction or improving living conditions, which requires a clear vision and international will to support the sector.