Amir Makhoul: Israel has been working on the idea of dividing Syria for a long time, and Turkey is seeking to achieve major regional ambitions

Nevin Abu Rahmon: What is happening in Syria has a direct impact on liquidating the Palestinian cause and weakening the Arab environment that supports it

Dr. Hassan Marhej: Talking about the disintegration of the Syrian state is unrealistic and the arrival of the Syrian opposition to Damascus cannot happen

Dr. Munther Hawarat: The Syrian government’s ability to defend what remains of its territory and influence has become highly questionable

Dr. Muhammad Khalifa Siddiq: The rapid developments on the ground indicate that the Syrian opposition is advancing at an unexpected pace

The rapid developments in Syria following the attack initiated by the Syrian opposition factions, starting from the city of Aleppo in the far north, reaching Hama, and other cities and towns, open the door to speculation about the future of the Syrian state wide open, amidst frenzied media campaigns by Arab and foreign media outlets seeking to spread a state of terror among the Syrian people, especially those who support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

In parallel with what is happening on the ground, there has been an intensive diplomatic movement by international parties supporting the Syrian state, such as Russia, Iraq and Iran, which have taken the initiative to make contacts and hold meetings between themselves and regional parties that are likely to be behind the Syrian opposition in its sudden and sweeping attack, especially Turkey and Qatar, the latest of which was the meeting held in Qatar in the presence of Turkey, Russia and Iran, and the information leaked about an agreement between the three parties so that Turkey would do what it must to stop the military attack until the political dialogue between the legitimate opposition and the Syrian government begins.

The opinions of writers and analysts I met varied between those who believed that the fall of Damascus into the hands of the opposition would never happen, and others who saw the rapid collapse of Syrian army units in Aleppo, Hama and elsewhere as a strong indication of the possible collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The partition of Syria is still far from being achieved

Political analyst Amir Makhoul said that the United States, along with Israel, deals with countries, peoples and organizations based on their interests only, far from any values or principles.

He added: "When the United States wants to practice terrorism, it does so, and when it wants to whitewash the image of terrorist organizations, it does so as well. It also deals with some terrorist organizations when they serve its interests."

Makhoul pointed out that the United States considers itself above all standards, as it believes that it has the ability to determine the rules of the world according to its own vision.

Regarding the division of Syria, Makhoul stressed that the matter is still far from being achieved and is not as easy as expected.

He added: "The division depends on field developments, and it is not possible to predict what will happen on the ground in the end.

The question is: Will the Syrian army continue to defend major cities and population centers, or will it retreat? If it retreats, the partition of Syria will become a reality.”

Makhoul added that Israel has long been working on the idea of dividing Syria and is seeking to establish a "region complementary to the Golan" that extends towards Jabal al-Arab, to be a state or mini-state loyal to it. He also pointed out that Israel aims to separate Lebanon geographically from Syria by creating a buffer strip.

In the same context, Makhoul explained that Türkiye seeks to achieve major regional ambitions, such as controlling the Aleppo region and regional expansion, noting that this leads to changes in the regional balance of power.

Israel is the biggest beneficiary

Makhoul said that what is happening in Syria reflects a broader pattern in the region, where countries such as Libya, Sudan, Iraq, and Afghanistan are exposed to the same scheme.

He stressed that the entire region is now subject to continuous attempts at division, and that Israel is the biggest beneficiary of this reality.

He said: "These plans are not random, but have been prepared over a long period of time, and the mistakes of the Syrian regime in dealing with its people were exploited to achieve these goals."

Makhoul stressed that the situation in Syria could ignite the entire region, placing the responsibility on the shoulders of the Arab countries.

He added: "The official Arab position is the decisive factor. Either the Arabs take a unified position defending the Arab state, or the Arab states will remain vulnerable to the active forces in regional and international alliances."

He stressed that the future of Syria and the region is still open, with no final decision yet, stressing that "Gaza and Palestine are paying the price."

Geopolitical change in the region begins in Syria

For her part, political analyst Nevin Abu Rahmon confirmed that geopolitical change in the region begins in Syria.

She said: "The events in Syria cannot be viewed within the equation of internal affairs," noting that targeting Syria comes within the framework of reorganizing the region.

She added: "This move, which is being led by the Israelis, the Americans, and the Turks at their head, will have major consequences on the shape and features of the region, and consequently on the shape of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the status of the resistance."

Abu Rahmon stressed that the Turkish role has become clear in what is happening in northern Syria under the pretext of the "security threat", and this is likely to drag the region into new, endless bloody wars.

Abu Rahmon pointed out that the Justice and Development Party government does not tire of working in coordination with Israel.

She pointed out that the Turkish flag in Aleppo and the boasting about the invasion by pro-AKP writers do not change the fact that Turkey, along with the United States and Israel, is engaged in an effort to dismantle a neighboring country.

The struggle for influence in Syria has reached a decisive stage

Abu Rahmon warned that what is happening in Syria has a direct impact on liquidating the Palestinian cause and weakening the Arab environment that supports it.

She said: There are Israeli and American efforts, and it has become clear that the matter is determining the path of a new Middle East, far from resistance and from dealing with the Palestinian issue.

Regarding the situation on the ground, Abu Rahmon indicated that the struggle for influence in Syria has reached a critical stage, as it appears that the United States has given the green light to armed groups that serve its interests in the region.

“We see attempts to polish the image of Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, by conducting interviews with him and marketing him internationally,” she said.

Abu Rahmoun concluded by saying: “With the insistence on resolving the battle in Syria, these groups appear to be on their way to reaching the capital.”

Damascus is a red line that cannot be crossed at all

In turn, Dr. Hassan Marhej, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, confirmed that talk about the disintegration of the Syrian state is unrealistic and does not conform to the general Syrian society, because Syrians lived and were raised in an institutional state, and by nature Syrians love the institutional system.

He said: It is true that there are crises and suffering on the part of the Syrians, but it is also true that these crises are the result of a long war and siege, and therefore talk about the disintegration of the Syrian state is unrealistic, and the arrival of the Syrian opposition to Damascus cannot happen, because Damascus means a political decision, and the political decision in Damascus differs in essence and content from everything that happened in the other provinces, and from Damascus will be the beginning anew.

Marhej pointed out that the developments that began in Aleppo and continued and continued until they reached the outskirts of Homs city have many reasons, but the Syrian leadership, according to informed sources, considers Damascus a red line that cannot be crossed at all, adding: “All the media hype by the armed factions aims to break the morale of Damascus, and this will not happen.”

He pointed out that the Syrian leadership has put in place military plans around Damascus, and there is a decision by the Syrian state's allies to prevent approaching Damascus, and to prevent the opposition from reaching it except within a consensual political decision. He stressed that the Syrian state cannot disintegrate, and the opposition cannot reach Damascus, the capital, and this is a political and sovereign decision.

Damascus within the Russia-Iran axis

Regarding the current alliances and alignments, Marhej said: “Since the beginning of the war on Syria, new alignments have emerged regionally and have carried various titles. It is noted that with the beginning of the war on Syria, Damascus remained within the axis of Russia and Iran, and the majority of regional and international countries were against Damascus and its alliances. Many times, they tried to politically entice Damascus to break its alliance with Russia and Iran, but Damascus’ position on that was clear.”

He continued, saying: “Today, with what Syria is being subjected to, Damascus has been able to attract more forces to it, meaning that when Damascus was fighting American and Turkish-backed terrorism on its land, it was in defense of everyone, but today there are new alignments that have emerged through Arab, Gulf, and even Western solidarity with what it is being subjected to in terms of a terrorist attack supported by Turkey and with a clear American mandate.”

He added: "Damascus has proven the validity of its alliances, and today the nature and essence of the current alignments are becoming clear, and everyone is looking for ways out of the reality that terrorism is trying to impose from Syria to all the countries of the region, and therefore the new alliances and alignments are in Damascus's interest."

Al-Julani's promotion of the Syrian people as a docile lamb

In his explanation of America’s permission for factions on the terrorist lists to occupy lands and conduct interviews with CNN, Dr. Marhej said that this is the norm of American policy in presenting terrorism as a docile lamb, and more importantly, the United States itself and all countries classify al-Julani as a terrorist who runs a terrorist organization, and thus Washington, as a result of its involvement in establishing and supporting terrorist organizations, works in parallel to produce them politically, meaning to show them as politicians who have taken off the cloak of terrorism, and are capable of integrating with civilians.

He pointed out that the fact that al-Julani appeared on an American channel is like the appearance of many terrorists in interviews on American channels, and this is a message, specifically in Syria with the recent developments. They want to market al-Julani as a political man who has moved away from the terrorist al-Qaeda ideology, and they tell the Syrians that reality has changed and they are trying to program the Syrians that al-Julani carries the banner of peace and love, after he used to carry swords and cut off the heads of Syrians.

Marhej described this as clear American and Turkish hypocrisy, from the appearance of al-Jolani in Aleppo to his appearance on an American channel. In both cases, there is a message to say that al-Jolani has changed and there is no harm in leading the next stage in Syria, but this will never happen, because the Syrians will reject al-Jolani and his gang, who are basically functional tools whose validity will expire when a political solution is approved in Syria.

The opposition is advancing at an unprecedented pace.

For his part, Jordanian political analyst Dr. Munther Hawarat confirmed that the Syrian army is witnessing a major and comprehensive collapse at the current stage, and that what is happening on the ground exceeds even the expectations of the most optimistic about the opposition’s progress.

He added: "What we are seeing now is much faster than any previous agreement, whether between Türkiye, America, Russia, or even Iran."

Dialogues explained that the idea of a comprehensive collapse dominates the current situation, which mixes up the political and military cards in Syria.

He pointed out that the Syrian government's ability to defend what remains of its territory and influence has become highly questionable, in light of the rapid collapse of the Syrian forces.

Dialogues believes that the opposition factions today are stronger than ever, as they possess drones, mechanized armies, and rapid warfare tactics. In contrast, the Syrian army and its allies are facing a state of exhaustion and disintegration that hinders their ability to stand up effectively as they did in 2016.

He added: "Talking about the 'useful Syria' scenario has become more difficult," noting that the opposition may not be satisfied with controlling the outskirts, but may head towards Homs and Damascus.

America and post-Assad scenarios

Dialogues indicated that the American position indicates a growing conviction that the Syrian regime is heading towards collapse, which prompted Washington to open channels of communication with the opposition.

He added: "There are reports that Arab countries, even those that were seeking to normalise relations with the regime, have begun communicating with Syrian opposition factions."

He explained that America may have agreed to move the Syrian file within limits that guarantee the survival of the regime, but its plan did not seem to succeed, which prompted it to think about post-Assad scenarios.

He continued: "The signs of planning began to appear in statements by American officials, including the meeting of the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, with CNN, where he spoke about preparing for the post-Assad era."

“There are negotiations taking place between the armed factions and the Supreme Alawite Council, which is supposed to determine the behavior of the Alawite sect,” Hawarat added. “These negotiations aim to neutralize areas such as Latakia, Jableh, and Qardaha from the conflict, by providing guarantees to their residents that they are part of Syria and not merely affiliated with the regime, which could accelerate the political transition in the country.”

Dialogues pointed to reports that America may seek to re-present the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, in a new image that paves the way for a radical change in its position towards him, especially if the opposition succeeds in achieving gains on the ground.

Successive collapses may pave the way for reaching Damascus

In turn, Dr. Mohamed Khalifa Siddiq, a professor at the International University of Africa in Khartoum, said that the rapid developments on the ground indicate that the Syrian opposition is advancing at an unexpected pace, as it has taken control of several cities without any significant resistance, in an advance that may reach Damascus.

Khalifa pointed out that the control of the border with Jordan and the joining of soldiers from the regime forces in Daraa to the opposition, and even their return to their homes, are all indications of the decline of the regime’s power.

He explained that these successive collapses may pave the way for the opposition to reach Damascus, adding: "Even the opposition itself did not expect this rapid progress."

He also pointed out that Russia's call for its citizens to leave Syria reflects a change in Moscow's position, which may indicate its unwillingness to intervene in favor of the regime at this critical stage.

He added: "Russia may take an initiative that leads to President Bashar al-Assad stepping down or leaving the country to an exile that he accepts, and this may be followed by the formation of a joint military committee between the regime and the opposition to manage the transitional phase."

Regarding the American position, Khalifa said: “Washington seems surprised by what is happening on the ground and is monitoring the situation to see which direction events will take.”

He confirmed that a senior American official told Reuters that the coming hours may witness the collapse of Assad's rule.

Khalifa pointed out that the opposition leadership has begun to take positive steps towards citizens aimed at gaining the support of Syrian public opinion, including its pledge to release all detainees in Hama Central Prison and return them to their families.

He added: "This step carries indications of the opposition's intention to improve its image before the Syrians, and may lead to a dramatic shift in public opinion in its favour."