Will there be a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip?

After reaching a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, the region is witnessing active diplomatic moves to reach a truce in the Gaza Strip. What indicates the possibility of reaching it is Netanyahu's announcement of his readiness to agree to a ceasefire, without stopping the war, because according to analysts, he believes that the conditions are ripe for the release of Israeli prisoners from the grip of Hamas, and maintaining friendly relations with Donald Trump, who asked him to obtain his "victory" before entering the White House on January 20, hoping that it will help him shape his "new Middle East." Behind the scenes, Egypt is conducting intensive efforts, with the support of the Biden administration and the team of President-elect Donald Trump, to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Strip, as it is preparing a draft of this agreement, which includes, in addition to the prisoner exchange deal, arrangements for managing the Strip after the end of the war, to be presented to Israel first, before presenting it to Hamas.

According to leaked information, the Egyptian proposal includes starting with a five-day “truce,” during which Hamas will collect information about the living and dead Israeli prisoners, about whom it does not have information due to Israeli bombing. This will be followed by a transition to a “temporary” truce of 60 days, during which the release of Israeli prisoners and Palestinian detainees will be exchanged, and 200 trucks of humanitarian aid will be brought into the Strip daily.

During this temporary truce, discussions are underway on mechanisms to end Hamas rule over the Gaza Strip, how Israel will withdraw from it, and deploy Palestinian forces assisted by an international mission in order to restore civil order there. The proposal also stipulates that the Palestinian Authority will supervise the civil administration of the Strip after the war, and will be assisted in this mission by an international security mission made up of Arab and European countries.

Whether a temporary truce or a permanent ceasefire is reached, Israel will not withdraw from all areas of the Gaza Strip to create a new reality there, as indicated by a number of indicators, including the ethnic cleansing taking place in the northern Gaza Strip to establish a buffer zone, and the establishment of an infrastructure of camps and roads, which indicate its intention to occupy it for a long period, in addition to the settlement plans, which enjoy the support of the Israeli right-wing government. It will also work to implement what it calls the “bubble plan” in northern Gaza, which was presented by a research center close to the ruling Likud party.

The bubble plan calls for isolating those deemed not to be Hamas supporters in areas where they can live, according to the Wall Street Journal. The newspaper quoted former Israeli army general Israel Ziv, who oversaw the Israeli withdrawal from the Strip in 2005, as saying that “this plan could last for the next five years, during which the Palestinian Authority could regain its security and administrative control over the Strip.”

In addition, Israel is working to implement the "Fingers Plan" launched by Ariel Sharon in 1971, which divided Gaza at the time into 4 isolated areas, interspersed with 5 fingers like the fingers of a hand, consisting of settlements and military zones. According to Haaretz, the Israeli army actually began implementing the Fingers Plan last March, by opening the Netzarim Corridor, 7 kilometers long and 8 kilometers wide, which separates the northern governorate and Gaza City from the center and south of the Gaza Strip, and is equivalent to 15% of the area of the Strip.

Gaza, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, is now facing two scenarios: the first is that the ceasefire in Lebanon may give impetus to Egypt’s efforts, supported by the US and the Arabs, to reach a truce on the way to stopping the war. What reinforces this scenario is the growing pressure inside Israel (especially from the military establishment) demanding an end to the war and the return of the detainees in Gaza. The second scenario is the possibility that Israel will agree to a truce regardless of its duration, but without stopping its war on the Strip, because ending the war may lead to the dismantling of Netanyahu’s government coalition. In addition, the continuation of the war may allow Netanyahu to achieve his “absolute victory,” and thus gain wide popularity among Israeli society, which may provide him with immunity from legal prosecution on the corruption charges that are pursuing him.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had described Israel as "a country with no foreign policy, only domestic policies," which may explain why Netanyahu might accept a limited deal with Hamas to strengthen his position in the domestic political arena, especially since his trial on corruption charges against him will take place in December, which may prompt him to try to disrupt the trial proceedings, due to his involvement in negotiations to reach a truce to release Israeli prisoners from Gaza. In addition, he may work to calm the situation in Gaza (tactically), to confront the repercussions of the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against him and his former Defense Minister Yoav Galant. His involvement in negotiations for a truce in Gaza is also a message to Donald Trump that he is responding to his call to end the war before his inauguration as US President in about 50 days.

Although Hamas has announced its readiness to return to negotiations with Israel to reach a ceasefire, and Netanyahu has announced his readiness to do so without stopping the war, the factors that contributed to reaching the Lebanon agreement are not available to the same extent for the Gaza Strip. Lebanon is a sovereign state with relations with many countries around the world, and Hezbollah has entrusted the Lebanese government with the task of negotiating. In contrast, Hamas is leading the negotiations itself due to the political and geographical division between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and the absence of a sovereign state capable of managing such negotiations.

In light of this reality, Israel will try to have the upper hand in any potential negotiations with Hamas, and will do everything in its power to keep its forces in the Strip to create a new reality.