Dr. Hussein Al-Deek: The coming period may witness an unprecedented escalation in Israeli policies towards the Palestinians with full support from the Trump administration

Dr. Raed Nairat: Trump seeks to focus on confronting China and avoiding direct conflict with Russia, which prompts him not to return to the Middle East

Suleiman Basharat: Trump wants Middle Eastern countries to turn from observers to actors regarding a deal to release Israeli detainees

Dr. Saad Nimr: Trump's fiery statements are an attempt to impose a quick solution to the Gaza crisis and end the file of Israeli detainees before he assumes the presidency

Firas Yaghi: Trump's statements aim to show his interest in ending the war in Gaza, which in itself is a positive sign despite the threatening tone.

The fiery statements made by US President-elect Donald Trump, threatening the Middle East with "hell" if the Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip are not released, before he officially assumes the presidency on the twentieth of next month, come at a critical stage in the region, which is likely to escalate the war instead of stopping it.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts, specialists and university professors believe that Donald Trump’s fiery statements reflect his personality and the ideological and political affinity between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which raises questions about the features of the next phase in American policies towards the Middle East region, with the adoption of more stringent policies and a clearer bias towards Israel compared to the Biden administration.

Although these statements are fiery and unprecedentedly striking towards the region, some analysts and specialists believe that Trump's statements may pave the way for the possibility of achieving a breakthrough in the file of Israeli detainees or a calm in Gaza.

Personal alliance between Trump and Netanyahu

The writer, political analyst and specialist in American affairs, Dr. Hussein Al-Deek, confirms that Trump’s statements threatening the Middle East if the Israeli detainees are not released, reflect the personal alliance between him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and express a deep ideological and political convergence between the American right and the Israeli far right.

Al-Deek explains that these statements were not surprising, as they reflect Trump's true position, which has always been characterised by his hardline policies and absolute support for Israel, especially during his first term in office.

Al-Deek points out that Trump, like many American presidents, makes election promises that differ greatly from his policies after taking office.

Al-Deek describes this contrast as a “historical inevitability” in American politics, where election campaigns are used to attract voters, while priorities are reshaped after reaching power.

Al-Deek points out that Trump's record is full of pro-Israel moves that have sparked controversy, starting with moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, closing the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington, and transforming the US consulate in Jerusalem into the (Palestinian Affairs Unit) under the umbrella of the US embassy in Jerusalem.

These steps, according to Al-Deek, constitute evidence of Trump's commitment to policies that are in line with the aspirations of the right-wing Israeli government.

Al-Deek draws attention to the ideological nature of the Trump administration, which consists of conservative right-wing currents, including evangelical Christians and Zionists, in addition to neo-conservatives.

Al-Deek believes that this composition sent clear messages to the world, including the Palestinians, and even Hamas, that this administration adopts a position consistent with the Israeli government and its extreme right-wing tendencies.

Al-Deek points out that these ideological alliances between the US administration and the Israeli government are not based solely on political interests, but extend to doctrinal and ideological foundations that support the continuation and expansion of the Israeli occupation.

Al-Deek believes that Trump's recent statements reflect the features of the next stage, as Netanyahu confirmed, in his speech before the United Nations, the drawing of a "new Middle East," as this harmony between the two countries indicates difficult days ahead, especially with Trump's return to the White House.

Al-Deek explains that Trump, who runs his policies with a mentality he describes as “arrogant,” will work to implement policies that are more biased toward Israel than the Biden administration, and his new term is expected to be characterized by hostile policies toward the Palestinians, including tightening the siege on the Gaza Strip, and facilitating the supply of weapons to Israel through direct executive decisions without referring to Congress.

Trump's Possible Plans for the Forced Displacement of Palestinians

Al-Deek warns of Trump's potential plans to implement the forced displacement of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, noting that Trump has previously stated that "Israel's areas are small and need to expand."

Al-Deek points out that these policies may include displacing the residents of the Gaza Strip abroad, which he described as very dangerous, and which the Biden administration did not dare to raise.

Al-Deek asserts that the coming period may witness a major and unprecedented escalation in Israeli policies towards the Palestinians, with the full support of the Trump administration, reflecting a more extreme position than ever before, not necessarily by using more lethal weapons, but by achieving Israel’s dream of displacing the Palestinians.

Regarding the possibility of achieving a political settlement between Israel and Hamas, Al-Deek believes that Trump's statements will further complicate the situation.

Al-Deek points out that these statements will push Netanyahu to adopt more extreme positions, which will make it unlikely that a deal will be reached to release the Israeli detainees in Gaza or achieve any calm.

He explains that Netanyahu aims to impose a surrender agreement on the Palestinian resistance that includes the release of detainees, the exit of Hamas leaders from Gaza, and the continuation of the Israeli military occupation of the Strip.

On the international level, Al-Deek believes that the world is taking Trump's statements seriously, but at the same time it is suffering from weakness in confronting American policies.

Al-Deek points to the absence of a multipolar or even bipolar international system as it was in past decades, allowing the United States to act as a global policeman, while Trump acts as a world leader.

An arrogant personality who often bases his positions on unrealistic facts.

Writer and political analyst Dr. Raed Nairat believes that the recent statements of US President-elect Donald Trump regarding Gaza come in the context of his arrogant personality, which often bases its positions on unrealistic facts.

Nairat cites a previous statement by Trump about a month ago, when he said that he did not know that there were any living Israeli detainees in Gaza, to appear today as if he is ignorant of what happened in the region and the comprehensive destruction that Israel has carried out and the exhaustion of all its military options to return these detainees.

Nairat explains that the threat of using force is no longer effective, pointing out that Israel itself has failed to achieve this, despite using all its military capabilities.

"If there is a threat to be made, it should be to the Israelis, to push them to make concessions that will lead to the release of the detainees," Nairat says.

Nairat explains that the families of the Israeli detainees understood Trump's statements in the context of pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, not the Palestinian resistance.

Nairat points out that the families of the Israeli detainees blessed these statements because they realize, after a full year of war, that their sons will not return through military escalation, but rather through a possible exchange deal.

Nairat describes Trump's statements as "empty of content," wondering what he can offer Israel in terms of operations to pressure the resistance to release the detainees in Gaza.

Nairat points out that the administration of President Joe Biden has given Israel full and absolute support, providing it with advanced weapons, including the THAAD air defense system, which the United States has not given to any other country, and even sent a crew to operate it in Israel.

Regarding the contradiction in Trump's statements, Nairat points out that during his election campaign, he stressed that he did not want to ignite wars, but rather sought to extinguish them, which contradicts his recent positions.

"These contradictions are expected from Trump's personality, who often makes incoherent statements and makes political stances that are difficult to predict," Nairat says.

Nairat believes that Trump seeks to focus on confronting China and avoiding a direct clash with Russia, which is what prompts him not to return to the Middle East.

Nairat points out that this approach to returning wars to the Middle East conflicts with the interests of the American institutional state, as it was the American involvement in the Middle East in the past, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq, that allowed China to rise as a global power that threatens the United States.

In the context of talking about concluding an agreement in the Gaza Strip, Nairat explains that there has been a flood of news in the Hebrew media during the past ten days, indicating an Israeli attempt to prepare public opinion for an imminent deal with the Gaza Strip.

"It is not possible to determine the size or nature of this deal, but it is likely to include a truce or a broader agreement that may include a withdrawal from the Gaza Strip," Nairat said.

Nairat explains that Trump's statements regarding the Middle East give many European countries the courage to say "no" to American policies, given the dissatisfaction of many American institutions with them, which was previously reflected in the rejection of the "Deal of the Century."

Nairat asserts that the world has become more aware of the realities of the conflict over Palestine, which enhances its ability to confront political figures like Trump.

Nairat points out that the American return to the Middle East under Trump will remain a source of internal and external controversy, especially given its conflict with European and international interests.

Trump's statements require careful reading within multiple contexts.

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat asserts that US President-elect Donald Trump’s statements regarding the Middle East, and his threats regarding the need to release Israeli detainees before he assumes power next month, require careful reading within multiple contexts.

Basharat explains that Trump's personality is well-known during his first term (2016-2020), characterized by making sudden decisions and implementing them quickly without waiting for agreement or a response from other parties. This characteristic makes his recent statements messages targeting three main parties: Israel, the Palestinians, and countries and mediators in the Middle East region.

Basharat points out that Trump, through his statements, is sending a clear message to the Israelis, that there is no room for maneuver or backtracking on any decisions taken, and this position contradicts the approach taken by President Joe Biden’s administration, which has been criticized for its weak positions and its backtracking on previous decisions under pressure from Israel.

Basharat points out that Trump is seeking to confirm that he will not allow Israel, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to manipulate or back down from any American step, even if it does not fully align with the Israeli vision.

Basharat asserts that this trend reflects a radical difference in approach, as the Trump administration seeks to impose its agenda without providing much room for discussion or amendment, which makes its relationship with Israel more clear in defining common priorities, but without allowing Israeli policies that might affect direct American interests.

The second message is directed towards the Palestinians, especially the resistance factions in the Gaza Strip, where Basharat believes that Trump’s statements carry the character of psychological pressure, as they seek to create a state of anxiety among the Palestinians by waving sanctions and threats. However, the Palestinians, who lived through Trump’s experience in his previous term and were subjected to strict measures such as cutting off aid and closing Palestinian representative offices in Washington, have become more capable of dealing with these threats.

Basharat points out that the Palestinians are already living under the siege and the ongoing war for more than a year, which makes them the party suffering the most from violations and crimes, and therefore they will have nothing to lose if they decide to confront Trump’s policies or challenge his directions.

He points out that the third party targeted by Trump's statements are the mediators and influential countries in the Middle East, whether at the Arab or regional level.

Trump, according to Basharat, wants these parties to shift from an observer position to a direct actor in the issue of the Israeli detainees and their release. This trend explains the recent moves of some countries, such as Turkey, which has begun to show a desire to play a prominent role in any potential talks or deals. Arab countries, such as Egypt, are also witnessing an acceleration in discussing regional issues, which reflects the impact of Trump’s statements in pushing these countries towards finding solutions to the outstanding problems, especially with regard to the Gaza Strip.

Basharat believes that Trump, despite his escalatory rhetoric, may not resort to using direct military force. Instead, he is likely to resort to using political and diplomatic force, such as imposing economic and political sanctions on parties he believes are obstructing any diplomatic effort. He cites his previous experience, where he withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, imposed strict sanctions on it, and cut ties with international institutions such as UNESCO.

The approach of “de-conflicting” through political deals

According to Basharat, Trump is relying on an approach of “de-escalation” through political deals, which could mean offering incentives to parties that cooperate with his vision, while at the same time imposing harsh sanctions on parties that obstruct the implementation of his agenda.

Basharat believes that there are indications that Trump's statements may be an indication of the imminent conclusion of a prisoner exchange deal between the Palestinian resistance and Israel, as Trump seeks to present himself as a strong president capable of achieving accomplishments that the Biden administration was unable to achieve.

This type of rhetoric, according to Basharat, could be used as part of an early election campaign, where Trump appears as a leader who can impose his will and achieve political breakthroughs before he officially takes office.

Questions about Trump's ability to offer anything new in the deal

Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, believes that the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump regarding the Middle East have a fiery character that reflects his usual style of governance. Trump, who is known for his firmness and his efforts to avoid procrastination in issues, seeks, according to his recent statements, to impose a quick solution to the Gaza crisis and end the file of Israeli detainees before assuming the presidency again.

According to Nimr, Trump aims through his statements to send a clear message to the concerned parties, stating that the Middle East may face worse conditions if the Israeli detainees held by the Palestinian resistance are not released.

Despite the severity of his statements, Nimr raises questions about Trump's ability to offer anything new in this file, noting that Israel exerted pressure and committed genocidal massacres during the administration of President Joe Biden and did not achieve anything.

Nimr believes that Trump is relying in his threats on intensifying pressure on Hamas and Gaza, noting that this pressure may manifest itself in an additional Israeli escalation in the Strip.

However, Nimr points out that the Israeli escalation is not new for Gaza, which faces daily massacres and an ongoing war of extermination, which means that Trump's threats may not bring anything new.

Nimr points out that the recent Israeli statements do not carry any encouraging signs regarding the possibility of reaching a comprehensive deal, as Israel sees the temporary truce as a means of releasing the detainees without ending the war, which is something that the Palestinian resistance rejects.

Nimr stresses that the resistance, which has put its conditions on the table and which are clear to the whole world, insists on a complete cessation of the war, the entry of humanitarian aid, the opening of the crossings, and the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation forces from the Gaza Strip as part of any possible deal, and these are legitimate demands.

Nimr believes that this stubborn Israeli position constitutes a major obstacle to achieving progress, especially since Israel believes that it has benefited from the ceasefire in Lebanon to expand its military operations in Gaza, as this escalation reflects an Israeli vision that considers Gaza an open field of operations, which increases the complexity of the situation and makes reaching an agreement more difficult.

Regarding the international community, Nimr expresses his extreme pessimism about the possibility of major countries intervening to stop the Israeli aggression or to pressure for a comprehensive humanitarian and political solution in Gaza. The international community, which includes the United States and the European countries that support it, lacks the political will to take decisive steps against Israeli actions or Trump’s future policies.

Nimr explains that last year witnessed international silence in the face of the ongoing war of extermination and massacres in Gaza, indicating the inability of international institutions to intervene to protect the Palestinians or stop the aggression. Therefore, Nimr doubts the possibility of a fundamental change after Trump takes over the presidency and proposes new plans to end the war in Gaza.

Trump is trying to appear as a strong leader capable of imposing political deals.

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump, which included a threat of “hell” for those who do not release the Israeli prisoners held in the Gaza Strip, come in the context of his attempts to appear as a strong leader capable of imposing deals and political strategies before his arrival to the White House.

Yaghi links these statements to others made by Trump in a meeting with the head of the occupation government, Benjamin Netanyahu, where he seemed surprised by the absence of living Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip. This surprise indicates Trump’s interest in resolving the prisoners’ file in a way that contributes to ending the war, so that he can return to the White House without facing open crises in the Middle East.

Yaghi asserts that Trump’s statements do not target the already devastated Gaza Strip, but rather appear to be directed at the leadership of Hamas abroad, as his threat may carry a signal of the possibility of escalation through assassinations targeting the movement’s leaders, in an attempt to pressure Hamas and its supporters to accept a prisoner exchange deal.

However, Yaghi points out that Hamas is not in a position to fear such threats, as the movement’s leadership is accustomed to dealing with harsh conditions. Yaghi points out that whoever wants to release the detainees alive in a potential deal must take into account the survival of the other party’s leaders to ensure the success of the negotiations.

Yaghi points out that Trump's statements reveal a side of Trump's personality, who seeks to promote his image as a firm man who can impose his will on everyone.

Yaghi asserts that the reality in the Palestinian arena is different, as the Palestinians, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, had previously rejected the “Deal of the Century” proposed by Trump during his first term in office without paying any attention to his threats or political power.

As for Trump’s threatening statements before he took over the reins of power in the White House, Yaghi believes that they aim to show his interest in ending the war in the Gaza Strip, which is a positive sign despite the threatening formula. Trump knows that any solution to the prisoners’ issue will only be through an exchange deal, and he realizes that the continuation of the war deepens the humanitarian and political crisis in the region, which is something he does not want to face after assuming the presidency.

In the same context, Yaghi believes that Israel is aware of the difficulty of achieving its goals of completely eliminating Hamas, but it seeks to remove the movement from power in Gaza and dismantle its military capabilities so that it does not pose a future threat. Hence, it seems that the formation of the “Administrative Community Support Committee” that was agreed upon between Hamas and Fatah to govern Gaza represents a step towards the post-war phase on the Gaza Strip and the form of government there.

Yaghi points out that this committee, which came with the joint approval of Fatah and Hamas, reflects an internal awareness of the inevitability of change in the Gaza Strip after the war, which may be in line with preempting Israeli goals seeking to reshape the political and administrative landscape in the Strip.

Yaghi confirms that the interpretation of Trump’s statements differs between the different parties. While some take his threats seriously due to his record of implementing his promises, the Palestinian resistance forces do not pay much attention to them, as Hamas focuses on tangible agreements and not on political speeches.

Yaghi points out that Hamas is demanding American guarantees to end the war and for the Israeli army to withdraw completely from Gaza, which poses a major challenge to Netanyahu, as the latter, who is facing internal pressures in his government, cannot make clear commitments regarding ending the war once and for all.

Yaghi believes that Trump’s statements and directions reflect a state of international anticipation towards the Gaza Strip, as the region faces two options: either reaching a prisoner exchange deal, or an additional escalation that extends to include other arenas, with Syria as the beginning. However, in most cases, the potential escalation indicates a shift in attention towards Iran as part of the complex regional scene and the Israeli-American directions.

Despite the cautious optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement, Yaghi stresses that there are major obstacles that need to be addressed. For example, the issue of the Rafah crossing and the discussions about the form of administration of Gaza after the war that was decided by the Palestinians through Egyptian mediation are still open, and require an American-Israeli green light in order to determine the framework of the final solution.