Trump the gambler in his political suit

It has been known in history for more than thirty years after a hundred, specifically in the late nineteenth century, that US President Cleveland assumed power for a period of (1883-1889) then lost to Harrison, then assumed power for a period of (1893-1897), and this is what happened with Trump, as he reached the seat of power in two separate periods, the first (2016-2020) then lost to Biden, and now returned again. This calls for saying that Trump’s return is a strong historical return, despite the rising indicators that exclude his candidacy; Being the only president in the history of America who was subjected to two attempts to remove him from Parliament, the first in (2019) in the so-called "Ukraine scandal", and the second in (2021), in addition to his conviction in forty-three criminal cases, most of which are related to crimes of forgery of documents and records, as in his election campaigns in (2016 and 2020) to reach certain results that corrupt the elections, as well as other fraud cases, ending with his direct relationship in the incident of his supporters storming Congress in (2021) after his failure against Biden, and this is a precedent in the history of America that the people try to change the result of the government by force instead of votes.

Trump's First Term By examining Trump's first term (2016-2020) and its reflection in his dealings with Israel, the most prominent step that remains in the minds of the world is his work to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. At that time, Netanyahu and his supporters raised their voices that the Arabs did nothing and that if Jerusalem was taken, they would do nothing. However, the truth is that after 3 years, the "Al-Aqsa Flood" occurred and it became clear then that Trump was surrounded by a misleading entourage. Now the question crystallizes in "Will Trump in his second term be like his first term?" In all cases and changes, the American people elected Trump to solve America's problems, not Israel, even if it is the spoiled son, not the Arabs, even if they are forces that influence and are influenced, and not the Middle East. In fact, what is striking about Trump’s victory this time is the naive joy of the right, despite the unlimited support from the Biden administration to Israel in the form of weapons, ammunition, F35 aircraft, and even the THAAD defense system. It is estimated that more than 70% of the cost of the war was paid by the Biden administration. The support was not limited to material. On the ground, when the Bab al-Mandab was closed to ships heading to Eilat, the Biden administration harnessed its warships, forces, and policies to enhance food and economic security and diplomatic protection for Israel.

Trump's slogan I wrote previously immediately after Biden's victory was "From Trump to Biden, O heart, do not rejoice." I say now that Biden is absolute evil, and Trump is a painted evil. Trump, who claims to bring peace to the Middle East, is the same promoter of the Deal of the Century, and the one who paved the way for normalization. What is hidden is not great, but what is coming is shameful and humiliating for the Middle East.

In an article published in the Jerusalem Post titled “If you support Israel, you should vote for Trump,” the article praised Trump’s positions, especially on sanctions on Iran, and the Deal of the Century, which paved the way for normalizing relations between Arab countries and Israel during his rule.

Since the first media debate between Biden and Trump, the latter stated that "Israel is the one who wants to continue the war, and they must be allowed to finish their work," and he also confirmed his support for Israel and his support for military operations inside the Gaza Strip, and Trump opposed Biden's efforts to end the war.

It is well known that the Gaza war is one of the most prominent foreign issues that strongly influence the course of the US elections, along with the issue of immigration, the economy, the relationship with China, and the Ukraine war. The secret to ending the war: Returning to Trump's election propaganda, we find that he succeeded in making statements that appeal to emotion, especially after a year of a bloody war that occupied the world, statements and pledges in a distinctive style in parallel with a negotiating strategy that suggests ending all wars, not just the Gaza and Lebanon wars, but the return of this propaganda is a landslide victory in the elections. Some scenarios looming on the horizon if Trump decides to make his statements actions that are seen, not words that are heard, and since he is a seasoned politician in deals, he may adopt the following:

1. A comprehensive deal that ends the wars on biased Israeli terms, by disarming Hamas, and the return of the Lebanese to beyond the Litani, in exchange for the reconstruction of the two countries and their economic revival, and thus Israel will have supreme authority.

2. A partial deal to cease fire with strict conditions for the Palestinians and the Lebanese in exchange for promises to ease the siege or improve the living conditions. Thus, the solution is superficial, not radical.

3. Indirect pressure on Iran to stop or reduce its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, thus reducing the risk of escalation between Israel and the Iranian-backed arms, and then stopping the war.

4. An international peace conference with the participation of newly normalized Arab countries, claiming to end the war with a comprehensive initiative that hides in its details its Israeli agreement. A vision for the Middle East in the time of Trump Let us remember that Trump is originally an economic businessman, as he mentioned in his book "The Art Of The Deal" several conditions for the success of any position he takes, the most important of which is the return, meaning that he measures the success of any deal or step by the result of its return, so he thinks and deals as a president in a political position with a negotiating mentality, not a political one.

This is clearly reflected in the impact of his overwhelming victory, which has put the Middle East on a hot plate: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, passing through Turkey and the Gulf, where difficult days await them, tactical changes, and deals looming on the horizon.

Starting in Turkey, where Trump said in his first term that “Turkey is an important regional ally for Washington,” Erdogan is pinning his hopes on giving him more space in Syria to act against the Kurds, especially after Trump promised to withdraw from it, while preserving American interests, re-reaching an agreement on the F35 aircraft that were halted during the Biden era, and supporting the Turkish economy by expanding trade exchange.

In Iraq, a number of American forces are a line of defense against ISIS, but there is a fear that relations will be reversed after the participation of Iranian-backed militias in striking Israel, as they may enter into sub-state militias. In parallel with Yemen, difficult days await it as it is part of a plan to eliminate sub-state militias.

As for Syria, the Syrian regime is concerned because it is considered part of the Iranian axis, but what melts this fear is its failure to confront Israel since October 7. As for the Syrian opposition, its fate is the same as Ankara’s in its relationship with Washington, as its influence could expand in northeastern Syria.

The Gulf States are a strategic partner for security challenges, especially against Iran, during Trump’s first term. With his second victory, Saudi Arabia in particular is betting on the necessity of reaching an agreement that would allow it to enter the nuclear club through pressure in two directions: normalization with Israel and recognition of a Palestinian state.

Finally, Iran is the most important and most tense party since Trump’s first term. His withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2015, in parallel with the “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, led to the imposition of economic sanctions against it. Estimates indicate that his second victory will reactivate this campaign with a focus on reducing Iranian oil sales and isolating Tehran diplomatically. However, this does not negate the possibility that Trump may strike a better deal that includes Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile program, and Tehran’s regional influence.