Analysis | Netanyahu Pushes on With Occupying Gaza, but Trump May Force a Change in the War

By Amos Harel

As Israel lays the infrastructure for a creeping occupation of northern Gaza and plans its next step in Lebanon, it's waiting to see if Biden gets tough in his last two months with stingier arms supplies and a possible harder line at the UN Security Council

Donald Trump's election as U.S. president last week seems to have the best chance to shake things up in the Middle East and maybe extract Israel from its long war of attrition on multiple fronts.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is feeling confident that he can harness Trump and further his own goals, as happened in the past. But since the 45th president's big victory on Tuesday, Trump has been sending hard-to-decipher messages, as usual. Things may only become clearer when he enters the White House on January 20.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is considering harsh moves against Israel during the transition period, including tighter restrictions on arms supplies and a possible failure to veto anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council.

After Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last week, the retired general told the truth to the hostage families in a farewell meeting with them. He said that conditions were ripe for a deal and that there was no security or diplomatic justification for Israel to stay in the Philadelphi corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border.

"There is nothing left to do in Gaza. We've already accomplished the major achievements," Gallant told them, adding that he feared that Netanyahu's refusal to withdraw Israeli forces "comes from a desire to remain there. This isn't a worthy purpose for risking soldiers' lives."

In fact, the picture is even bleaker: The government has no interest in a hostage deal. The far right of the governing coalition opposes the freeing of any Palestinian prisoners, and Netanyahu is completely dependent on the hard right for his political survival, as he keeps trying to postpone his testimony in his corruption trial.

On the other hand, tremendous effort is being put into preparations for long-term control of northern Gaza, which the right seeks to parlay into a full-fledged occupation and the building of settlements.

Last week, Haaretz reported on moves designed to push the entire Palestinian population out of the northern quarter of the Gaza Strip. Over the weekend, Yedioth Ahronoth reporter Yoav Zitun described his impressions from a visit to the east-west Netzarim corridor south of there: The width of this strip that the Israel Defense Forces created during the war has expanded to 7 kilometers (4.3 miles).

The army is putting up outposts there suitable for a permanent presence and is installing water systems and gear for cellular reception. Zitun predicts that "after another 20 or 30 hostages die in captivity, no Israeli leadership will give Hamas the prize in return": a corridor bisecting the Strip "that was initially meant to be a bargaining chip."

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has tapped Yechiel Leiter, his former chief of staff, to be Israel's ambassador to the United States. Leiter is a member of the settlers' ideological wing (and his son Moshe, a reservist deputy battalion commander in the Paratroopers Brigade, was killed in action last year in northern Gaza).

This appointment gives an indication of the prime minister's ambition to win U.S. recognition of an annexation of the West Bank settlements (which he failed to obtain in Trump's 2020 "deal of the century"). Netanyahu also seems to be angling for a creeping occupation of northern Gaza. The basis for this is already being laid.

In Lebanon, the IDF has essentially completed its main mission: surveying and destroying terrorist infrastructure in the first line of villages up to 5 kilometers from the border. Now the army is preparing for the possibility of advancing to the second line.

Such a move would entail two major challenges: the worsening autumn weather and the need for another large call-up of reservists despite the increasing complaints about the burden being shouldered by too small a segment of the population.

Netanyahu's office is projecting optimism about the chances of attaining a diplomatic solution and cease-fire in Lebanon soon, though it's unclear what this prediction is based on. Either way, the aim appears to be an upgraded version of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

This would be far from total victory, but Israel could at take satisfaction in its considerable achievements against Hezbollah in recent months and hope that the next time it will be able to more strictly enforce violations of the agreement by the terror group.

In Gaza, the baton is gradually passing to Trump. It's not hard to imagine that the idea of securing a deal to end both the war and the hostage families' tragedy appeals to him. He surely remembers the precedent of the Iranian regime freeing the American hostages in 1981 on the day Ronald Reagan took office, ending a saga that haunted Jimmy Carter for 14-plus months at the end of his presidency.

Trump and his people have even bigger plans for the future of the region, like expanding the Abraham Accords to include an Israeli-Saudi normalization and massive deals between Washington and Riyadh.

In yet another example of how difficult Trump is to predict, the president-elect has announced that Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley, two of the most prominent figures in his previous administration, will not have roles this time around. They both were on very friendly terms with Netanyahu.

Many of the key people in Trump's orbit have isolationist views and aim to reduce America's military presence around the world. It remains to be seen if one of them receives a key position in the administration.

The aftermath of an Israeli strike in Mashghara, in the western part of Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, on Sunday. Netanyahu's office is projecting optimism about the chances of attaining a diplomatic solution and cease-fire in Lebanon soon, though it's unclear what this prediction is based on.

Waiting for frustration to boil over

In Israel, suspicions continue to pile up about people in Netanyahu's close orbit, and criminal investigations seem to be gradually approaching. This is a long and dreary saga that combines two main trends: evidence of alleged offenses by people at the Prime Minister's Office that dwarf past scandals, and attempts to rewrite history for the boss' sake.

This rewriting would obscure Netanyahu's responsibility for the failures that allowed the October 7 massacre to happen. It would also blur the picture regarding missed opportunities in the hostage talks and shift responsibility for failures to Gallant and other top security officials.

The mounting revelations are heightening the panic at the Prime Minister's Office, especially the assessments that Eli Feldstein, the spokesman who has been arrested, is cooperating with the investigation.

But at this stage, there are no direct suspicions of malfeasance by Netanyahu, and let's remember that he emerged unscathed from similar scandals in the past. Moreover, law enforcement has been significantly weakened since the wave of investigations into Netanyahu began in 2016. This can be seen in the conduct of the police and in the judges' timid responses to his constantly growing demands during his trial.

Netanyahu crossed the fear threshold with his dismissal of Gallant last week, which sparked a pale imitation of the protests that made him backtrack after he tried to fire Gallant in March 2023. It's no wonder that threats are in the air to offload other officials standing in the prime minister's way.

The threat to the government comes from two other issues; the public's disgust over the criminal culture being revealed is still in the background.

The first and perhaps most important issue is the impossible burden being put on the reservists, which includes the dangers that all the combat troops are facing. Against this backdrop, the government is absolutely determined to pass legislation perpetuating the ultra-Orthodox community's dodging of the draft.

The second issue is the public's deep anguish over the fate of the 101 hostages, half of whom are believed to have died. At some point we may reach the stage where frustration from all these things, on top of the economic crisis and the government's complete ineptitude in addressing all areas of the public's needs, bring Israelis back out into the streets.

For now, the coalition appears stable, and Trump seems to be the main person who could force a change in the war – if he has any desire to do so.