“Gaza: Analysis of a Tragedy” – 5 questions for Yves Aubin de La Messuzière

French diplomat, former Ambassador to Italy, Tunisia, Iraq and Chad and specialist in the Middle East, Yves Aubin de La Messuzière answers my questions on the occasion of the publication of his book Gaza: Analysis of a Tragedy published by Maisonneuve Larose and Hemisphères.

You believe that France has lost the credibility it had on the Israeli-Palestinian issue…

France’s loss of credibility on the Israeli-Palestinian issue is clear under Emmanuel Macron’s mandate. I believed, along with others, that France’s voice had gradually faded away on a structuring aspect of our foreign policy. Since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020 between Israel and several Gulf countries, European diplomacy wrongly considered that the Palestinian question had lost its centrality and could be managed as a low-intensity conflict. The improvised initiatives of the President of the Republic, since October 7, 2023, have revealed a lack of global strategic vision on the conflicts that are shaking the Near and Middle East region. Our diplomacy, which has become illegible, due to contradictory presidential statements regarding the Gaza war and the situation in Lebanon, has offended our Israeli and Arab partners. The "at the same time" does not work in foreign policy. The Quai d'Orsay is marginalized, so much so that there is talk of developing a "diplomacy without diplomats".

You believe that Hamas, even weakened, will survive this war.

Hamas’ military wing is largely disorganized, due to its losses and the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, who replaced Ismail Haniyeh at the head of the movement. The political wing, whose leaders are in Qatar, will take over and could be willing to resume negotiations for the conclusion of a ceasefire and the release of the hostages. Hamas, which has permeated Gazan society for decades, is undoubtedly more popular in the West Bank. It will survive this war and we can hope that its new leaders, including Khaled Meshaal, will focus on a form of normalization, which could involve integration into the PLO, which remains for the international community the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.

Is the Palestinian Authority reformable?

From the beginning of the war, Joe Biden called for the return to Gaza of a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority. With the support of Arab countries and Europeans, the Palestinian Authority is reformable, provided that Mahmoud Abbas is removed and corruption within it is eradicated. With the support of Europeans, particularly France, institutions were set up in the 1990s by the Palestinian Authority with a view to creating a state based on the rule of law. 139 UN member countries recognize the Palestinian State. France remains in the background, even though it had been at the forefront of its creation.

Benyamin Netanyahu’s response is unambiguous: “neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan” to rule the enclave. Tsahal has opened a new front in the West Bank, eliminating Fatah leaders, encouraging the expansion of colonization and covering up the exactions of the settlers.

Does the emergence of the “Global South” change the situation?

The Gaza war has opened a new fracture between the West and the "Global South" that is becoming a geopolitical reality, despite its lack of structure. China, which aspires to take the leadership, brought together all the Palestinian factions in Beijing, after having promoted the resumption of relations between Riyadh and Tehran.

Can international justice become efficient?

International justice has set in motion. At the end of 2023, South Africa filed a request with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing Israel of violating the 1948 Convention on the Prevention of the Crime of Genocide. Without ruling on the merits, the UN's supreme legal body issued warnings to Israel urging it to take measures to prevent possible crimes of genocide. A dozen countries have joined Pretoria's approach. By coincidence, the ICJ ruled, in particularly severe terms, in July 2024 on the illegality of the occupation of the Palestinian Territories and of colonization.

For his part, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for three Hamas leaders (since eliminated), as well as Benjamin Netanyahu and the Minister of Defense, for war crimes or crimes against humanity. To be effective, the warrants must be confirmed by three ICC judges, who are subject to strong pressure. Described as anti-Semitic by Netanyahu, the ICC is playing for its credibility.

In his recent speech to the UN General Assembly, the Israeli Prime Minister violently vilified the United Nations, accusing him of “spilling his anti-Semitic bile.” Its Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has been declared persona non grata in Israel. The IDF’s attacks on UNRWA in Gaza and UNIFIL in Lebanon are part of this strategy aimed at removing the United Nations from any prospect of a political solution.