The efforts led by the State of Qatar in its mediation role for more than a year, along with Egypt and the “opposing mediator” the United States, have not succeeded in putting an end to the war of extermination waged by the occupying state on the Gaza Strip, in light of the intransigence shown and still shown by the Prime Minister of the occupation, Benjamin Netanyahu, who wants to achieve through negotiations and politics what his army has not achieved in the field in terms of declared goals, at least.

No one knows exactly what the two Arab mediators are facing or hearing, whether from the aggressor state, Israel, or from the third “mediator,” the United States, or more precisely, the “opponent,” without anyone coming out in public to call things by their names and announce the party that is causing the obstruction of the negotiations that Netanyahu has exploited for thirteen months as a cover for his open massacre.

Political writers and analysts who spoke to "I" dot com believe that what the media reported about Qatar's intention to freeze its mediation, and even ask the Hamas leadership to leave its territory, is an eloquent political message to free itself from the pressures being exerted on it to push it in turn to pressure the Hamas movement to accept the Israeli conditions to end the war, but Qatar denied that it had withdrawn from the negotiations. It also denied that it had asked the Hamas leadership to leave Doha.

Several experiences and close relations with America and Europe

Dr. Omar Rahhal, writer, political analyst and director of the Shams Center for Human Rights, stressed the importance of the Qatari role in the negotiations, considering that Qatar represents the Palestinians and the resistance as “trustworthy brothers.”

He explained that Qatar has close relations with the United States and Europe, in addition to its distinguished relations with the Palestinian resistance, which makes it a trusted mediator for all parties in the ongoing negotiations with the occupation.

Rahhal pointed to Qatar's previous experiences in negotiating and resolving conflicts, whether in Darfur, with the Taliban, or in Lebanon, in addition to its efforts in other conflicts, which gave it extensive experience and prudence in bringing viewpoints closer together and proposing solutions acceptable to the conflicting parties.

He added: "These experiences give it a strong balance in negotiating at the regional and international levels.

Regarding Hamas’s denial of receiving any messages from Qatar asking it to leave Doha, Rahhal said: “Politics is changeable and everything is possible,” noting that Qatar aims to maintain a strong regional role, which makes the presence of the resistance on its territory supportive of these ambitions.

He also expected that the new US administration headed by Trump might exert pressure on Qatar to remove Hamas from its territory, considering this one of the means of pressure to achieve its interests and impose a settlement that suits the US and Israeli vision.

US and Israeli pressure on Qatar

For his part, Oraib Al-Rantawi, Director of the Jerusalem Center for Political Studies, pointed to the challenges facing Qatar as a result of American and Israeli pressure on it, which in turn pressures Hamas, with the aim of pushing it to make concessions and accept Israel’s conditions in the negotiations over Gaza.

“This is not the first time that Qatar has been subjected to pressure from the United States and Israel in the context of its mediation between Hamas and Israel, and it will not be the last, as Washington and Tel Aviv, as part of a negotiating-blackmailing tactic, seek to push Qatar to pressure Hamas to accept extremely difficult Israeli conditions. This pressure, which relies on direct and indirect threats, comes at a sensitive time regionally and internationally, with the approach of a new round of negotiations regarding the future of Gaza,” he said.

Rantawi stressed that Qatar is considered one of the main regional players seeking to keep the door of dialogue open, as it has provided multiple mediations over the years in the Gaza file. However, this mediation places it in a sensitive position, especially since many parties, including Israel and the United States, want Qatar to take a firm stance in pressuring Hamas to accept the “surrender” conditions imposed by the Netanyahu government.

Qatari Foreign Ministry puts an end to rumors

He pointed out that the recent period witnessed a series of media leaks and rumors about Qatar withdrawing from its mediation role, with threats to expel Hamas leaders or close their offices. However, official statements, especially by the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman, put an end to these rumors and confirmed that Qatar's role as a mediator still exists, but with conditions.

He believed that the timing indicates a correlation between the pressures on Qatar and the political transformations in the United States, noting that with Trump’s return to the political scene and his victory in the presidency, Qatari fears of a less flexible American policy are renewed, as Qatar had previously suffered from direct threats to its existence during Trump’s first term in office, including a blockade imposed on it by the Arab “siege quartet,” which was only ended by generous Turkish and Iranian support.

He believed that with Trump’s return, the anti-Qatar lobby in the United States may gain new momentum, especially since there are currently 14 members of Congress calling for sanctions on Qatar, including the expulsion of Hamas leaders from Doha and the extradition of some of them. These calls may increase after the Republican victory in the elections.

According to Rantawi, the recent Qatari leaks came as a message from Qatar expressing its rejection of exploiting its mediation as a cover to pass pressure on the Palestinians. The Qatari leadership is fully aware that its mediation in the Gaza file is desired, especially by the American and Israeli sides, but it is also aware that some parties see this mediation as a tool to ensure Hamas’s submission and acceptance of the Israeli conditions.

A constructive role, not a tool for pressure and submission.

He explained that Qatar believes that its role as a mediator should be constructive and serve the goal of achieving a balanced solution, not as a tool for pressure and submission. This is why Qatar is hinting that it may suspend its role as a mediator if it feels that the pressures are unfair, while it is ready to resume the role if mediation serves a peaceful solution.

Al-Rantawi pointed to the potential repercussions on Hamas and the future of its presence in Doha since the beginning of the last conflict in October 2023, as talk has begun to increase about the possibility that Hamas will be forced to leave Qatar, and this may depend on the results of the negotiations and the length of the crisis.

He added: "If American and Israeli pressure continues, Qatar may be forced to reduce direct support for Hamas, which may push the movement to reconsider the presence of its leaders in Doha."

He said that Hamas has limited options outside Qatar, as countries like Lebanon and Iraq, despite their apparent sympathy, are unable to provide a safe environment due to security and political complexities. As for Iran, it may be a refuge, but moving there may further isolate Hamas and raise concerns about its relationship with other regional parties.

Turkey and Algeria may accept a symbolic presence for the movement, but without providing full support due to their complex regional interests. Therefore, Hamas may have the option of distributing leadership geographically and adopting a decentralized pattern of action.

Qatar's prominent role in supporting the Palestinian people

In turn, former Minister of Jerusalem Affairs Hatem Abdel Qader praised the prominent role played by Qatar in supporting the Palestinian people, especially in the city of Jerusalem, and in its continuous efforts to mediate to stop the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, which is witnessing crimes and genocide.

Abdul Qader stressed that Qatar has sought from the beginning to alleviate the suffering of the Gaza Strip, whether by mediating a ceasefire or by sending humanitarian and relief aid, and attempts to break the siege imposed on the Strip.

He pointed out that Qatar's efforts to support Gaza were not limited to the current crisis, but extended to before October 7, through reconstruction projects and humanitarian aid provided by the Qatari Committee to Support the Strip, which contributed to alleviating the suffering of its residents.

Abdul Qader explained that what is being circulated about Qatar's withdrawal from mediation is inaccurate, stressing that Doha will not abandon the Gaza Strip, and will continue its efforts in cooperation with Egypt and in coordination with the Palestinian Authority to stop the fire and lift the siege.

He stressed that Qatar will not back down from this "historical responsibility" in supporting the Palestinian people and backing them until the aggression stops and Israel withdraws from Gaza.

Abdul Qader denied the existence of any Qatari request for Hamas to leave Doha, pointing out that external pressures, especially American, may increase, but Qatar will remain committed to its message of support for the Palestinian people, including Hamas as part of it.

Abdul Qader added: "The talk about closing the Hamas office in Qatar is exaggerated and inaccurate, stressing the movement's continued presence in Doha and Qatar's continued mediation to end the aggression on the Gaza Strip.

Qatar does not have real means of pressure on Israel

For his part, writer and political analyst Dr. Suleiman Abu Sitta stressed the important role played by Qatar in mediating between Hamas and Israel.

Abu Sitta explained that there is a fundamental obstacle related to the positions of the two parties involved in the negotiations. On the one hand, the Palestinians, represented by Hamas and the resistance factions, stress the need to achieve a comprehensive and final cessation of the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as a precondition for any agreement.

Abu Sitta believes that any deal that does not include ending the war means that Israel will continue its policy of escalation and destruction against the Gaza Strip.

He added: As for the Israeli side, specifically the Netanyahu government, it wants to conclude a deal without ending the state of war. According to Abu Sitta, this position reflects an inconsistent political will within Israeli society, as there are internal parties that reject this approach and demand an end to the war.

Abu Sitta believes that Israel's acceptance of a ceasefire and the start of reconstruction in Gaza may facilitate the position of the Palestinian resistance, opening the way for possible agreements, but Israeli intransigence remains a major obstacle.

Regarding Qatari mediation, Abu Sitta pointed out that Qatar is making efforts to reach an agreement, but is facing difficulties as a result of the intransigence of the Netanyahu government. Qatar lacks real means of pressure on Israel, which led to recent statements indicating the failure of mediation so far.

In the context of the negotiations, Abu Sitta confirmed that Hamas showed flexibility and accepted several proposals, including settlement stages supported by the United States, but requiring real guarantees for a ceasefire, which has not yet been achieved and which the mediators have not been able to achieve.

Despite the Qatari announcement of the possibility of suspending mediation, Abu Sitta believes that these statements may be a Qatari tactic to pressure for an end to the war, citing previous experiences such as the Shalit deal, which succeeded thanks to the intervention of European roles after the failure of the Arab role.

Challenges Facing Qatar as Trump Returns

Abu Sitta pointed out that Qatar is facing additional pressures with the possibility of the return of former President Donald Trump, who may renew his tough stances towards it, putting it in a difficult position.

He pointed out that Qatar may feel that its association with Hamas threatens its strategic interests, which prompts it to issue such statements as an indication of its neutral position.

Abu Sitta denied the existence of a Qatari request for the Hamas office to leave Doha, indicating that this exit is not in Qatar’s interest, because moving it to Tehran, for example, may harm the chances of Qatari mediation. Accordingly, these leaks may be an implicit means of pressure, without any actual intention to implement them.

Qatar is tired of being blamed

As for the Jerusalemite writer and journalist Daoud Kuttab, he believes that Qatar has taken a smart and effective step by announcing the suspension of its mediation in the negotiations regarding the exchange deal and ceasefire.

The book said that this decision came after Qatar appeared to be tired of attempts to blame it for the lack of progress in the deal. While Qatar confirmed that mediation was suspended due to the parties’ lack of seriousness, thereby indicating the lack of seriousness on the Israeli side in particular, it is thus avoiding bearing unfair blame.

The book believes that this Qatari tactic reflects a policy similar to the occupation’s tactics, as it says one thing and does the opposite, a method that puts the ball in the court of the Israeli occupation and its American allies.

This decision is also considered a test of Qatar's neutrality and its positive role in bringing viewpoints closer together.

Regarding Donald Trump's return to the political arena, the book believes that his position on Hamas may be completely different from that of President Biden, who described himself as a "Zionist."

According to the book, Trump is not an ideological figure, and is not very committed to issues such as ideological support for Israel. Rather, he usually focuses on finding solutions and is willing to negotiate with any party if it achieves his goals, as he showed when he met with the North Korean leader previously.

The book pointed out the challenges that Trump might face in this context, as many of the major donors to his election campaign are supporters of the extreme Zionist right, which means that taking any balanced or lenient position towards Hamas might be met with strong opposition from those around him.