Sawsan Sarour: The more days of the first phase of the deal progress, the more difficult it will be for the Israeli government to breach and blow it up.

Jawdat Manaa: The agreement must be submitted to the UN Security Council and a decision must be taken regarding it under Article 7 to oblige Israel to implement it

Ismail Muslimani: There is a widespread feeling in Israel that the deal cost a high price and was considered a disaster on all levels.

Tawfiq Taama: The second stage will be more difficult for Netanyahu, especially in light of international and domestic pressures

Kaid Ghayatha: Israel may resort to repeated violations and Hamas will face pressure to refrain from responding due to the difficult humanitarian conditions in Gaza

Osama Al-Sharif: The start of implementing the agreement will open the doors to international investigations that will reveal the crimes of genocide and ethnic cleansing committed by the occupation

The Israeli occupation state violated the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip from the first moment it came into effect, by targeting citizens returning to their destroyed homes, and eager to regain the simplest basics of life and security, and caused a number of martyrs and wounded, under the pretext of Hamas’s delay in handing over the names of the Israeli female prisoners who are scheduled to be released on the first day of the first phase of the deal.

Such a breach gives an indication of how Israel will deal with the new reality in the Gaza Strip. It also raises the question of the ability of the mediators and guarantors to force it to abide by the agreement, so that the scenario of the agreement signed with Lebanon, which the occupying state violated hundreds of times, is not repeated, by violating the southern villages and towns by bombing and destroying homes in a collective and systematic manner, without the mediators and guarantors moving a finger to prevent these violations.

Writers and analysts who spoke to “I” expected that Israel would resort to repeated violations, especially since there is a widespread feeling in Israel that the deal came at a high price and was considered a disaster on all levels, while Hamas will face pressure to refrain from responding due to the difficult humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Therefore, some called for submitting the agreement to the UN Security Council to take a decision on it under Article Seven to oblige Israel to implement it.

The first Israeli violation of the agreement in the first hours of its implementation

"The Israeli government did not abide by the date set in the ceasefire agreement, at 8:30 a.m. yesterday, Sunday, claiming that it had not yet received a list of the names of the three female detainees who would be released on the same day. The Israeli army continued its aggression and bombardment of several neighborhoods in the Gaza Strip, which led to the deaths of martyrs and dozens of wounded," said Sawsan Surour, who follows the political scene in Israel.

“These few hours, from 8:30 to 11:15 (less than three hours), are the first breach of the agreement, and were an implementation of the threat (a show of force) launched by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday evening (just a day ago), in his first appearance since the deal was announced on Wednesday evening by the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, a deal that has shaken the pillars of the government coalition in a striking way since the government was formed at the end of 2022,” she added.

Sarour confirmed that Netanyahu promised in his speech to return to the war on Gaza to appease the leader of "Religious Zionism", Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, in particular, who threatened to resign from the government if the war on Gaza was not resumed. This is what he presented to him in these few hours to show his "good intentions", although he is fully aware that he is deceiving himself before others, as the tricks he played in the past will not continue in the coming days.

She considered that what Netanyahu did since the beginning of the war on Gaza, until a few days before the deal, of tricks, cunning and evasion of ending the war, for political and personal motives in favor of remaining in power, made him reject every proposal or deal to stop the war, but external pressures this time, mostly, tipped the balance in favor of concluding the deal.

Heavy losses in the ranks of the Israeli army

She said: "Yes, there are the heavy military losses that the Israeli army suffered, especially in its last operation in northern Gaza, which lasted more than a hundred days, reaching 55 dead, including 16 in Beit Hanoun alone. These losses deepened the failure to implement the generals' plan to empty Gaza."

She continued, "In addition to the demonstrations by the families of the kidnapped, which continued intensively, demanding the conclusion of the deal, all of this did not tip the balance in their favor, had it not been for the intervention and direct threat from the US President-elect Trump, who pushed Netanyahu and forced him to accept the deal reluctantly."

Surur pointed out that what has happened and will happen since the start of the ceasefire is a striking scene on the political map in Israel, and will serve as the compass and main guide for Netanyahu's government throughout the days of the first phase of the deal, in particular.

She stressed that the leader of the "Jewish Power" party, Minister of National Security Ben-Gvir, officially submitted his resignation from the government, and the leader of "Religious Zionism" will join him if the war on Gaza does not resume by the end of the first stage of the deal, i.e. on the 43rd day.

She saw that Netanyahu had no escape and had fallen into the trap, the trap of the difficult reality on the ground and the trap of the extreme right-wing parties in his government. On the one hand, either reaching the sixteenth day of the agreement, which stipulates the start of negotiations on the second phase of the deal, and thus succumbing to American pressure and street pressure that will increase the closer we get to this decisive day, and that means continuing with the deal on the one hand, and on the other hand, the withdrawal of Smotrich’s party and its joining Ben-Gvir’s party in the opposition position, which means shaking the foundations of the right-wing government, which could lead to dramatic changes in the government’s formation and could lead to both party members (13 Knesset members) voting against the government and even bringing it down.

Early election scenario

She said: "If this scenario happens, it means going to early elections in the middle of this year.

She added: “To avoid this scene, Netanyahu will try to obstruct the course of the deal, and what we saw hours before the ceasefire, he may try to repeat in the coming days, but Netanyahu fears Trump, as Trump is not like Biden, as

Netanyahu has been able to manipulate and evade him for more than a year, while Trump’s personality is very different. Despite being an unpredictable and volatile personality, he has repeatedly declared that he does not want wars in the region, and aspires to establish security in order to implement his “peaceful” plan in the region.

She continued: Not to mention that it is a guarantor of the agreement in partnership with Egypt and Qatar, which means implementing all three stages of the agreement in full, and working together to ensure that the parties implement their obligations in the agreement and the full continuation of the three stages.

"The more the days of the first phase of the deal advance, the more difficult it will be for the Israeli government to breach and blow it up. There will be many obstacles from the Israeli government, but it will not stop the stages of the deal, not because it does not want to, but because it cannot. Its soldiers are exhausted, the families of the detainees are pressuring, the economic situation is deteriorating, and most importantly, Trump is on the lookout," Surur concluded.

1. Lack of international guarantees threatens implementation and stability
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For his part, political analyst Jawdat Manna said that the credibility of the far-right Israeli government cannot be trusted.

He pointed out that there are previous experiences in agreements between Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Authority on the one hand, and Israel on the other hand. Even the Camp David Accords were violated during the Israeli war of extermination in Palestine, especially in the Gaza Strip.

He added: "Give me one example of an agreement that Israel has committed to implementing, including the recent agreement signed with Lebanon."

He stressed that the failure to document the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas with international guarantees, and not only from regional countries or the United States - which was a partner in the war through direct and indirect military support for Israel - makes the agreement vulnerable to violation. The outgoing President, Joe Biden, has acknowledged this support in more than one press statement.

Manaa suggested submitting the agreement document to the UN Security Council and taking a decision on it under Article 7 to oblige Israel to implement it, considering that this is the only option to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, especially in light of the escalation of international conflicts, such as the conflict in Ukraine, which has reached the brink of a nuclear confrontation, according to experts’ warnings, in addition to other areas witnessing tensions that could explode at any moment.

Fearing that Israel will return to war after recovering its prisoners

He explained that fears are increasing that Israel will achieve its goal of returning the Israeli prisoners to their families and then resume the war, noting that this will not cost it anything from the perspective of redeploying its forces on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip and inside the Strip within a kilometer along the border, including the Philadelphi Corridor.

He stressed that this military situation is not reassuring, which requires extreme caution, with the necessity of avoiding any manifestations that may provide justifications or information that the occupation army can benefit from in any sudden developments.

Among the other concerns that Manna spoke about is the map of forming the right-wing government in Israel. It is no secret to anyone that there are supposed resignations linked to conditions, such as the continuation of the war. If the war resumes, some ministers will remain in the government, but if it does not resume, they will submit their resignations.

He added: "If the resignations occur, Netanyahu's government will not survive. And then, who will guarantee that the ceasefire will continue?"

He pointed to another point related to the behavior of US President-elect Donald Trump, who is scheduled to be inaugurated on Monday. He said: "We do not know how he will act regarding the war on Palestine after assuming his official duties. It is true that he has some reservations about Netanyahu's credibility, but he is trying to curb these reservations in his statements. However, we know about Trump's absolute support for Israel, and the decisions he made in his first term hijacked efforts to resolve the Palestinian issue beyond expectations."

In light of this chaos and conflicting currents that the Middle East region is exposed to, Manaa stressed the need for the Palestinian forces to re-evaluate their internal and external relations, in order to be able to confront the dangerous possibilities that may appear after the ceasefire.

At the end of his speech, Manaa pointed out that these possibilities include the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the entry of humanitarian aid under Israeli supervision, which Israel may obstruct, which may return the situation to what it was before the signing of the ceasefire agreement.

Israel's coalition government nearly collapsed

In turn, the analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Ismail Muslimani, said: “The process of implementing the deal began yesterday after a delay of hours from the start of the ceasefire, as the Israeli media showed that there is a widespread feeling that this deal represented a high price, and was considered a disaster on the security, political, media and governmental levels, to the point where the coalition government almost collapsed.”

“As is the case with every prisoner exchange agreement, there are always obstacles and difficulties, but it seems that previous experiences, such as the Ahmed Jibril deal in 1985, the Shalit deal in 2011, and finally the deal that was implemented in November 2023, proved that there are precise implementation mechanisms that prevented any significant violations. However, Israel continued its military operations after the end of those deals,” Muslimmani added.

He explained that "the current obstacles include concerns among the families of Palestinian prisoners, as well as the families of the Israeli abductees. However, after a delay of several hours, a list of the names of the abductees was delivered, in preparation for the handover of three Israeli abductees.

"The question that worried the Israelis yesterday was: Are these kidnapped girls alive or dead? This possibility was a major dilemma and concern for Israel, especially for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who tried hard to ensure that the first batch of kidnapped girls would be alive," Musalmani added.

Muslimani stressed that "Hamas used this as a strong pressure card in the negotiations, as it did not announce the condition of the kidnapped, which increased Israeli concern and turned the scene upside down. However, there are Arab guarantees, Qatari and Egyptian, in addition to guarantees from the United States, regarding the smooth running of the deal."

Fears of Netanyahu's government disintegrating if Ben Gvir withdraws

“Netanyahu has managed to keep his government going for two years in a row, but there are concerns that the withdrawal of one of the partners, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, could lead to the disintegration of the government. On the other hand, if the first stage of the deal goes smoothly without any violations, things are likely to go towards shortening the implementation period of the rest of the deal,” he continued.

“There is great pressure being exerted to ensure the commitment of both parties, as the Palestinians are usually known for their commitment to such agreements, while there may be violations on the Israeli side,” Musalmani noted. “Netanyahu stated in his security speech that he had received assurances from Presidents Biden and Trump that any violation by Hamas would be met with a resumption of military operations.”

"Ultimately, the biggest concern is that the number of dead abductees is much higher than the number of living ones, which will be a strong blow to Netanyahu on two levels: the first is before the investigation committee, and the second is due to the pressures that may increase as a result of military losses," Musalmani concluded.

The Trump administration played a crucial role in achieving the agreement.

For his part, Tawfiq Taama, a specialist in international and regional relations, said: “There is an agreement reached between all parties, including Hamas and the Israeli side, with the support of parties guarantor of this agreement.

He added: "The agreement includes clear provisions, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must commit to implementing them.

He pointed out that the United States of America, especially the incoming Trump administration, played a decisive role in achieving this agreement, as it pressured Netanyahu through its envoy Stephen Woodcoffe, who visited the region and met with Netanyahu using firm and unconventional language to end the war.

"Trump, who is known as a man of deals and interests, seeks to end the war in Gaza not out of sympathy for the Palestinians or to alleviate their suffering, but to achieve his own agenda in the Middle East and the world," he added. He pointed out that among Trump's priorities is focusing on the normalization files and the Abraham Accords, in addition to other issues such as China, Russia and Iran, as well as internal American files that require his attention.

“The first phase of the agreement is expected to be implemented smoothly without any significant violations, and if violations occur, they are likely to be from the Israeli side,” Taama explained. “Netanyahu recently spoke via recording, not in a press conference, and indicated that he might return to fighting in the second phase, but this threat seems unlikely because the success of the first phase is linked to progress towards the second phase. Even US President Joe Biden indicated the need to continue negotiations during the implementation of the first phase, even if not all issues are resolved.”

70% of Israelis want to stop the war completely

He pointed out that "the agreement includes Israel's complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the continuation of negotiations to achieve final solutions without returning to fighting. However, the Israeli side cannot be trusted, as it has a long history of violating agreements and creating justifications for launching aggression against the Palestinians. This behavior is part of Netanyahu's policies, who always seeks to maintain his political grip."

Taama stressed that "the second stage will be more difficult for Netanyahu, especially in light of international and local pressures.

He pointed out that opinion polls inside Israel show that 70% of Israelis want a complete end to the war, not just a ceasefire. The international community is also pressuring to end the war once and for all. He added: "The pressure on Netanyahu is increasing because there are more than sixty Israeli prisoners, most of them officers and soldiers, which puts him in front of the dilemma of releasing them."

He explained that the biggest challenge facing Netanyahu now is to balance the demands of the Israeli far-right, represented by Smotrich, who is threatening to withdraw from the government if the war is not resumed, and international and American pressure not to return to fighting. The collapse of the government is a scenario that Netanyahu does not want, so it seems that he is forced to abide by the agreement.

“The second phase may be the most difficult, as Netanyahu seeks to satisfy his hardline allies on the one hand, and maintain his relationship with the international community and the United States on the other,” Taama concluded. “But international pressure, especially from the Biden administration, will remain the decisive factor in preventing the resumption of fighting. It seems that the war is over, and we hope it will not return again.”

Trump administration forced Netanyahu to accept deal

For his part, political analyst Kaid Ghayatha confirmed that the circumstances of the war in the Gaza Strip, in addition to the American intervention led by President-elect Donald Trump, were key factors in pushing Israel towards accepting a ceasefire.

Ghayatha explained that the Trump administration used strong pressure cards on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to force him to accept the agreement, pointing to potential threats from the US administration regarding sensitive issues such as protection from international prosecution and military aid.

Ghayatha pointed out that the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden was less able to impose a ceasefire than the Trump administration, describing the Biden administration as “more inclined to support Israel,” with pro-Israel figures within the administration.

He added: "Trump, despite his declared reservations about Netanyahu, has shown a clear desire to end the war by employing international pressure and possible sanctions.

Regarding the implementation of the agreement, Ghayatha expected that Israel would abide by the agreement as long as there were prisoners being held and it sought to release them. However, he indicated that Israel might resort to repeated violations under the pretext of "self-defense," likening the current situation to previous ceasefire agreements with southern Lebanon, which witnessed hundreds of violations.

He added: There are fears that these violations will lead to a new escalation, especially if Israel feels that the agreement did not achieve its security goals.

The second phase of the agreement will require complex negotiations.

Ghayatha stressed that Hamas will face great pressure to refrain from responding to these violations, given the difficult humanitarian conditions in Gaza and the impact of this on the movement's popular base.

Ghayatha believed that the second phase of the agreement would require complex negotiations, expecting that Israel would resort to procrastination in order to maintain the status quo. He explained that Israeli control over the crossings would remain a major obstacle to any long-term stability, noting that Israel might refuse to involve international or regional parties in managing the crossings.

Ghayatha concluded his speech by warning that the current ceasefire does not mean a permanent solution, but rather may be a temporary truce that could collapse at any moment if Israel continues its escalation policies.

He stressed that the continuation of the Israeli siege and restrictions on crossings will remain a major factor in fueling tensions in the region.

Victory for Palestinian steadfastness and a loss for Netanyahu

Jordanian political analyst Osama Al-Sharif believes that the ceasefire coming into effect on Sunday morning represents a turning point after 470 days of Israeli aggression that left unprecedented destruction and tragedies in the Gaza Strip.

He pointed out that this agreement reflects a mixture of contradictory feelings, between sadness over the destruction and human losses caused by the war, and pride in the Palestinian steadfastness that embodied a deep belief in the justice of the cause and adherence to the land despite the challenges.

Al-Sharif explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not achieve any of his declared goals during the war, but was subjected to internal and international pressures that ended with the imposition of a deal that included the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza, the return of the displaced to the northern part of the Strip, the entry of humanitarian aid without obstacles, the start of reconstruction, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.

He added that Israel did not emerge victorious from this war, noting that the start of implementing the agreement would open the door to international investigations that would reveal the crimes committed by the occupation, including genocide and ethnic cleansing.

Al-Sharif expected that calls to hold Israel accountable for these crimes would escalate in the coming period.

Human suffering in Gaza will not end soon

Al-Sharif stressed that the humanitarian suffering in Gaza will not end soon, noting that the Strip will need many years to rebuild and restore normal life.

But at the same time, he pointed out that Gaza may witness a radical change in its political and economic conditions thanks to the expected Arab and international support.

Regarding the American role, Al-Sharif pointed out that US President-elect Donald Trump distanced himself from supporting Netanyahu after the latter lost his credibility before the international community.

He explained that Trump is currently focusing on completing the normalization process between Arab countries and Israel, and imposing a final solution to the Palestinian issue. However, he warned that the West Bank may pay a heavy price for this path.

Al-Sharif concluded his speech by stressing that Netanyahu may try to obstruct the implementation of the agreement after the end of its first phase, but he pointed out that regional and international circumstances will not allow Israel to turn back the clock.