Trump, the Palestinian issue, and the possibility of turning the crisis into an opportunity

There is a great deal of controversy about Trump in his second term, and whether he will be like he was in his first term? Opinions vary between those who believe that he will be the same or worse, and those who assert that there is a new Trump who suits the current situation in America and the world, which is different from what it was eight years ago.

Now it has become more apparent than ever that the world is heading towards a multipolar world order, and this has been reflected in our region, as evidenced by the competition between three projects: the Iranian, the Turkish, the Israeli, and the absent Arab project. This competition has contributed to the convergence with the Chinese and Russian positions that Israel, which used to resolve its wars within days and at most weeks, has not been able, after more than 400 days, to resolve the war, neither on the Palestinian front nor on the Lebanese front nor on any other front. It is true that it launched a war of extermination and caused a second Nakba for the Palestinians and led to the displacement of more than a million Lebanese and the destruction of many villages, homes, and institutions, but it did not eliminate the resistance, and it is suffering great human, economic, and moral losses at all levels, especially in global public opinion, which has witnessed a major shift in favor of adopting and understanding the Palestinian narrative.

It has also not been able to release prisoners and detainees, nor has it been able to return the displaced, nor has it been able to displace Palestinians outside their homeland, nor has it yet been able to find local Palestinian agents or Arab and international parties to administer the Gaza Strip and cover up for the occupation that intends to engineer the Strip geographically and humanely and maintain Israeli control over the Strip.

The question now is: Will the far-right government, after Donald Trump’s victory, be able to achieve what it has not achieved so far, and move further towards annexing the West Bank and implementing a modified Trump deal, after deleting what it stipulates regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state on 70% of the West Bank’s area, even though it will not be a state, but rather isolated, populated enclaves, cut off from each other, through military and security zones, settlements, bypass roads, nature reserves, and religious and archaeological areas?

It is certain that the situation under Trump's second presidency will be worse than it was during his first term, because the owner of the deal of the century, whose goal is to bury the Palestinian cause, who considered that the area of Israel is small and needs to be expanded, and demanded that Netanyahu during his election campaign complete the mission quickly, and considered that the Biden administration is tying the hands of Netanyahu's government; he cannot become an angel or a new person, because he is angry with Netanyahu because he was not loyal to him and did not keep his promise to participate in the assassination of Qassem Soleimani or was not enthusiastic about peace.

Also, you cannot bet on Trump because he is volatile and unpredictable, and he is a deal-maker who does not hesitate to make a deal that benefits him and hesitates twice before taking action that might cause him loss, or because he is strong enough to control both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, the popular vote and the Electoral College, and because he will not need the support of Zionist pressure groups and others, since he will not be able to run again and is not very concerned about the future of the Republican Party, or because he said that he will not ignite wars and will stop existing wars, but his spokeswoman Elizabeth Pipko stated that he wants to resolve the war with the Palestinians quickly but with a decisive victory for Israel.

Everyone should remember that Trump’s philosophy, expressed in his campaign slogans, is based on “America First” and “The Future is for Nationalists, Not Globalists.” Secondly, he called for abandoning military interventionism except when absolutely necessary and replacing it with economic wars, sanctions, protectionism, tariffs, and raising the contribution of everyone, including allied Europe. Thirdly, he focused on the economy, the economy, the economy.

Despite all of the above, and on the basis of it, it is not possible to act on the basis that what will happen in the region and the world after Trump’s return depends only on what he does or does not do, but rather what will happen depends on what the players in each region do or do not do, from China, which is competing for world leadership, to Iran, which seeks to preserve and expand itself, its role and influence, as well as what the Arab countries will do or do not do, specifically Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian leadership and factions of all kinds, and all Palestinian players who must not adopt a strategy of waiting and reactions, but rather a comprehensive vision and effective proactive strategies are required, and leadership must be unified and the national institution embodied by the PLO must be revived, as what will happen depends on the continuation or non-continuation of Arab policies, so the Arabs must try to seduce or force him, and this requires the crystallization of an Arab project that seeks to place Arab rights and interests at the top of priorities.

If we delve deeper into the issue, will the Palestinian leadership repeat what it did during Trump’s first term in office, when it initially bet on him and asked him to present his historic deal, then was shocked by what he did, to the point of calling President Mahmoud Abbas a “son of a dog,” and cutting off American aid to the Authority and UNRWA, closing the PLO office in Washington, closing the American consulate in Jerusalem, and moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, in addition to considering the West Bank not occupied, but rather disputed lands and that settlement there is legitimate, in addition to recognizing the annexation of the Golan Heights and launching the Abraham Accords.

Trump believes in the philosophy of peace, but on the basis of achieving it through force and deterrence and restoring America to its former greatness, and taking what he wants by making deals, wars, economic sanctions, raising customs tariffs, and raising the cost on allies, competitors, and enemies, and this will increase the number of those harmed by him and those opposed to his policies.

Based on the above, the Palestinian leadership can avoid taking the bad advice given to it to choose to make a deal with Trump on the terms he accepts, which is a big mistake, indeed an unforgivable sin; that is, to accept a low ceiling, whether directly or through Riyadh, so that Palestine is part of the larger deal that will be concluded between Trump and bin Salman to normalize relations and integrate Israel into the region as a dominant player, in exchange for crumbs for the Palestinians and Arabs. It can also start now and immediately to gather Palestinian, Arab and international power and pressure cards and establish a global alliance in support of Palestinian rights and act on the basis that failure to meet them is what threatens security, stability and peace in the region and the world, and give priority to putting the Palestinian house in order and immediately starting a comprehensive national dialogue. Form a national consensus government and activate and expand the temporary leadership framework to include representatives of active groups, sectors, figures and movements, in preparation for forming a new National Council through elections where possible and adopting the appointment through objective criteria and national consensus where elections cannot be held.

The arrangement of the Palestinian house includes the unity of the political system, the unity of institutions and authority in one authority, and the unity of strategy and leadership on the basis that the first goal is to stop the war of extermination, annexation, displacement, relief and reconstruction, and the central goal at this stage is to end the occupation and embody the independence of the State of Palestine.

When the Palestinian house is put in order, or in parallel with it, the broadest Arab support will be mobilized, especially from the Arab capitals that have influence, headed by Saudi Arabia, in order to formulate a unified Arab project and position, and negotiate with Trump from a position of strength to reach a comprehensive deal.

Is it possible or difficult to put the Palestinian and Arab house in order? It is undoubtedly difficult, but not impossible. It is based on the fact that the plan is for Israel to be the central state dominating the region. This would limit the Iranian and Turkish roles, prevent the Arab role from increasing, prevent the crystallization of a unified Arab project, and build another position based on China, Russia, the countries of the South, and the old and new powers in the West that reject the continuation of the unilateral American control over the world and Israel’s continued provision of the atmosphere and push towards wars and instability, or reject the continuation of American and Israeli hegemony over the Arab region falsely called the Middle East.

There is a possibility to turn crises and serious challenges into an opportunity. Now, Riyadh and Prince Mohammed bin Salman are in a better position than they were in 2016, and its relationship with Tehran and Ankara is much better than before. Its relations have diversified across the world with Beijing, Moscow, and others, and are not limited to the United States and Europe.

Europe will also be harmed by the American isolationist policy, which will burden Europe with additional burdens, and will enable an opportunity to stop the Ukrainian war on the basis of stabilizing the status quo; that is, at least relatively in Moscow’s favor. This will make Europe or some of its countries more capable of playing a more independent role from Washington.

There is a way to turn Trump's return, which represents a dilemma and a major challenge, into an opportunity if there is a conscious Palestinian and Arab will that does not exaggerate fears or underestimate the cards of strength and ability to influence that it possesses.