Trump's Return and the Palestinian Fate

Most analysts and experts in American politics point out that one of the reasons for the Democrats’ failure in the elections, after Trump’s focus on the economic situation, lies in the bias of the Democratic administration and its participation in the Israeli war of extermination against the Palestinian people, as this caused them to lose the votes of the Arab and Islamic communities, in addition to the younger generations, including a large segment of Democratic supporters, who led the uprising on American universities throughout the past academic year.

The Biden administration was a partner in the war on the Gaza Strip, without Netanyahu taking any of the American proposals into consideration, or taking its interests in the region into consideration, as Biden himself was quick to back down from his declared positions, and swallow his tongue when the occupation government turned its back on these positions, as happened in his initiative to agree on a deal, even though it turned into a resolution issued by the Security Council. This and other things indicate that the administration is not expected to be able, or perhaps it does not want, to make any breakthrough in the remaining period until Trump’s inauguration next January.

The fundamental question that dominates today for all those interested in the Middle East issue and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is that, in light of the agenda that has become clear for Trump's next phase, whether related to internal issues, most notably the US economy, or the Ukrainian war that he promised to resolve, in addition to the files of China, North Korea and the Sudanese war, is: Will Trump be able to give priority to imposing a ceasefire against the Gaza Strip and reaching an agreement that ends the Israeli war on Lebanon? And what is the price that he will seek to achieve from that?

Regarding the war on Lebanon, it is clear that the outlines of an agreement are crystallizing on the horizon, and it seems that the various relevant parties are seeking this, including Israel, which is facing serious resistance from Hezbollah forces, after the party was able to absorb the effects of the painful blow to its leaders, reorganized its ranks, and rebuilt the bases of control and leadership on the military and political levels. Perhaps the integration of the roles of the Lebanese government and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who was authorized by Hezbollah, despite the contradictions of the political map in Lebanon and the fragility of the state’s situation, played a role in opening such a loophole that could end the war, albeit according to new arrangements regarding the implementation of Resolution 1701, especially in terms of providing guarantees to prevent Hezbollah from being armed by Iran through Syrian territory, and this is what the occupation government insists on.

As for the Israeli war of extermination against our people in the Gaza Strip, which is no longer hidden, it is a basic component of the liquidation war plans that the occupation government continues to implement, especially with regard to what is known as the annexation and settlement plan in the West Bank. Observers indicate that the Trump administration will engage in efforts to urgently stop military operations in the Strip, and this is what the Netanyahu government realizes, and therefore it is racing against time to impose its plans on the Strip, in terms of completing the ethnic cleansing of the northern region according to the so-called "Generals' Plan", which could include Gaza City up to the "Netzarim" axis, and confining the people of the Strip to an area that does not exceed half of it, as it seeks to implement a similar plan in the border areas of Rafah Governorate, without abandoning the displacement plans by making the entire Gaza Strip an uninhabitable area, and under Israeli security control, while continuing to give the army and settlers a free hand in daily attacks on various areas of the West Bank, especially its north.

Although Trump was the most "generous" during his previous administration in favor of Israel, as he moved the Washington embassy to Jerusalem, and presented it with what became known as the "deal of the century" under which Israel would annex large areas of the West Bank, and he also stopped Washington's support for UNRWA, which has now become a direct target for Israel to cancel its role in the occupied Palestinian territories, and its connection to trying to eliminate the refugee issue. Despite all of this, Israel, despite its warm welcome and declared support for Trump's campaign, fears what Trump might do in terms of directions that conflict with its aspiration to implement the so-called decisive plan to liquidate the Palestinian issue.

There is no doubt that Trump's relationship with the Gulf states will be a priority, and that he will seek to further normalize their relations with Israel. In this context, the importance of the Saudi role and what its foreign minister is leading in terms of establishing an international coalition for a two-state solution emerges, the achievement of which has become an irreversible Saudi condition for any future normalization process. Will this position constitute a pillar of Arab policy and its relations with Washington in the coming period? The extent to which this policy can be transformed into a working strategy requires addressing many issues in the Palestinian case, foremost among which is stopping the war of extermination against our people in the Gaza Strip, and confronting Netanyahu's policy that seeks to consolidate the separation of the Strip from the national entity, and turning it into a permanent and chronic burden, after it has constituted a basic lever for the national entity since the Nakba, and without confirming its unity, talk about the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state becomes mere talk with no basis in reality. As for the second issue related to the credibility of the two-state solution, it requires an effective confrontation of the monster of settlement expansion and the policy of Judaizing Jerusalem and complete control over its Islamic and Christian sanctities, with what this means in terms of providing the requirements for steadfastness. Here the other question arises: Does the political system of the National Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization, with the fragility of their current reality, possess the elements of the ability to confront these major national tasks, and to prevent them from being bypassed?

A quick look at this reality, and the insistence of the influential leadership on turning its back on the requirements for addressing it, including continuing to put the decisions of the Beijing Declaration in dark drawers, imposes on the Arab brothers to take this matter seriously, especially with regard to helping the Palestinian forces to immediately implement the decisions of the Beijing Declaration by unifying the comprehensive national institutions, and strengthening their legitimacy through the participation of all Palestinians in bearing the responsibility and consequences of national decision-making within the framework of the PLO, and immediately starting the procedures for forming a national consensus government according to work priorities, a reference, and a time frame leading to holding comprehensive general elections.

Implementing these decisions is what strengthens national legitimacy, protects the rights of our people and their just cause, and enables the formulation of a Palestinian, Arab, and even international plan that imposes itself on the international scene. It is what will make Trump and other international parties unable to bypass the Palestinian issue, because achieving stability in the region begins with implementing the requirements of a just solution to the Palestinian issue, in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions and the principles of international law, which guarantee our people freedom, return, and self-determination, and not replacing them with facts of genocide, ethnic cleansing, and colonial annexation that Israel seeks to impose.