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ARAB AND WORLD

Sat 09 Nov 2024 8:26 pm - Jerusalem Time

Biden plans final push for Middle East peace with less leverage

The Biden administration will make last-ditch efforts to strike elusive deals to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, but the election of Donald Trump could leave Washington without enough leverage to bend Israel and other regional players to its will before he becomes president, an informed source told Al-Quds on Friday.


“Senior US officials who have spent months shuttling across the Middle East for peace negotiations are likely to face counterparts who are reluctant to take big steps, preferring instead to wait until President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated in January,” the source, who asked not to be named, believes.


State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Thursday in his first post-election press conference that the administration's priorities on the pressing issues in the "Gaza war" are "getting humanitarian aid into northern Gaza, all of Gaza, continuing efforts to stop the war and release the hostages, and we have a duty to pursue these policies until noon on January 20th."


Trump has promised to bring peace to the Middle East but has not said how. However, if his first term is any indication, he is likely to adopt a strongly pro-Israel approach, going beyond even the strong support that President Joe Biden has extended to Washington’s top regional ally.


But with Biden now a lame duck in American political parlance, neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a close Trump ally, nor Arab leaders are likely to do much to accommodate the outgoing Democratic president and may take their cues from his Republican successor, whose erratic foreign policy in his first term has kept the region on edge.


“They have much less leverage,” Brian Finucane, senior adviser for the United States program at the International Crisis Group, told Reuters on Friday. “People may still be answering their phone calls, but everyone is looking to a new administration, which will have different policies and priorities.”


Since Trump's election victory on Tuesday against Vice President Kamala Harris, Arab and Israeli officials have begun to act with caution and balance toward the outgoing administration and the incoming one.


In the first step that indicates the upcoming political scene, Agence France-Presse quoted a diplomatic source as saying on Saturday that Qatar had withdrawn from its role as the main mediator in reaching an agreement to cease fire in Gaza and release the hostages, and informed Hamas that its office in Doha "no longer serves its purpose."


“The Qataris informed the Israelis and Hamas that as long as there is a refusal to negotiate an agreement in good faith, they will not be able to continue mediation. As a result, Hamas’s political bureau no longer serves its purpose,” the source, who requested anonymity, told the agency.


Reuters reported on Saturday that Qatar will withdraw from mediation efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza until "Hamas and Israel show a sincere willingness to return to the negotiating table."


The official added that Qatar also concluded that Hamas's political bureau in Doha "no longer serves its purpose," in a blow to the Palestinian movement after the assassination and killing of a number of its top leaders by Israel.


"The Qataris have been saying since the beginning of the conflict that they can only mediate when both sides show a genuine interest in finding a solution," the official said, adding that Qatar has notified Hamas, Israel and the US administration of its decision.


As the world watched the US election on Tuesday, Netanyahu — who left no doubt about his preference for Trump and hailed his win as “historic” — fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, depriving the Biden administration of one of its favorite Israeli partners.


The Palestinian Hamas movement, which has been fighting Israel for more than a year in Gaza against the brutal, American-backed Israeli war, and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is waging a parallel conflict with the Israeli occupation army, also appeared to be looking beyond Biden to the incoming Trump administration.


Hamas called on Trump to "learn from Biden's mistakes," and Hezbollah said it did not hold out much hope for a shift in U.S. policy away from support for Israel.


But Palestinian Authority officials say they expect to work with Biden aides until Trump takes office.


Washington says it sought to start ceasefire talks in Gaza after Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on October 16, but the efforts have gone nowhere. In Lebanon, US officials say they have made progress but no final agreement has yet been reached.


Asked about the view that the Biden administration’s influence has eroded after the election, a White House National Security Council spokesman said: “I’m not going to speculate.”


Netanyahu and his allies celebrated the election of Trump, a staunch ally of Israel, hoping that the Republican president, who in his first term achieved major victories for the Israeli leader, would support Israel unconditionally.


Trump strongly supported Netanyahu's goal of destroying Hamas but called on Israel to finish the job quickly.


In his victory speech, Trump said, “I will not start a war. I will stop wars.” But he did not elaborate.


Biden's support for Israel has divided his Democratic Party and cost Harris the votes of many Arab Americans and liberals.


The Democratic president strongly supported Israel while pressing Netanyahu to do more to protect civilians and allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.


But Biden has been unable to end the war, with some critics saying he should have done more to restrict the billions of dollars in military aid the United States sends to Israel each year.


Netanyahu is expected to make a limited effort to meet Biden's demands for some aid to enter Gaza, but he will also be aware of what he must do to appease Trump.


In a letter dated October 13, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called on Israel to take specific measures to improve aid to Gaza within 30 days, or face potential consequences in US military support.

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Biden plans final push for Middle East peace with less leverage