No ceasefire soon on the Lebanese and Gaza fronts

The source of optimism about the imminent reaching of a ceasefire agreement on the northern front and the spread of the illusion of severing the relationship between the Lebanese and Palestinian fronts, is that front which initially participated as a support front for the Gaza Strip front, since the second day of the aggressive war on the Gaza Strip. This optimism comes from the Israeli media and the caretaker Prime Minister Mikati, while Sean Savitt, the spokesman for the US National Security Agency, confirmed that what is being circulated are drafts for negotiations and do not reflect an agreement in the negotiations.

The Israeli leaders and army say that they will stop fighting on the Lebanese and Gaza fronts, after the army has achieved enough accomplishments. Netanyahu wants a ceasefire that meets the priorities of Israeli security, according to him, which is achieving political and security gains for his strategic project that goes beyond Lebanon and Palestine. He wants to amend Security Council Resolution 1701, hollowing it out and emptying it of its content in his favor. Israel has not implemented this resolution for 18 years. It did not withdraw from the occupied part of the Lebanese village of Ghajar, according to the text of the agreement, and rejected the solution of the former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon regarding the dispute over the Shebaa Farms, and violated this resolution 39 thousand times. Netanyahu wants to hollow out this resolution by continuing to violate Lebanese sovereignty on land, air and sea, and to have the authority to form a security belt in southern Lebanon, and to enjoy the approval of the Lebanese state to disarm Hezbollah if the army does not disarm it with a UN mandate. Lebanon's obligations under Resolution 1701 are to cease firing bullets and rockets, deploy the Lebanese army, and refrain from armed resistance south of the Litani, while Israel's obligations are to cease violating Lebanese sovereignty by land, sea, and air, withdraw from the Lebanese part of the village of Ghajar, and implement the solution presented by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon regarding the Shebaa Farms. Therefore, if a ceasefire is necessary, it will begin in the Gaza Strip, which is outside the umbrella of the Security Council and international balances, and is completely subject to the American umbrella.

The settlement on this front is made by America, not the UN Security Council, and the ceasefire and fighting on all fronts will be supported from Gaza. Therefore, all the illusion that the relationship between the two fronts has been severed and that Hezbollah or Iran has abandoned the Gaza Strip is part of a psychological and media war in which various Israeli, "Hebrew", Arab, American and Western European media outlets are participating. Its goal is to serve Netanyahu's electoral goals and his political and personal interests, as well as to serve the Democratic Party by achieving an accomplishment that will improve Harris's chances of winning the US presidential elections. How many times have they spread the false illusion that the negotiations are close to achieving serious breakthroughs that will lead to stopping the aggression and a ceasefire on the Gaza Strip front, and then we find that Netanyahu is running away and wasting time, and America stands by his side, holding the resistance responsible for the failure of the negotiations, while the Arab participants in what is known as the Quartet participating in the negotiations do not have the decision or will to hold Israel responsible for the failure of the negotiations. These are illusions and rumors being spread, as Israel is not yet ready and mature for a political path, and it is the one that has mobilized five divisions on the Lebanese land front and added several brigades to them. Despite the cracks and fissures that have begun to increase between the military and security establishment and the political establishment, due to the inability to achieve the goals of the war neither on the Gaza Strip front nor on the Lebanese front.

There is a question posed to the Lebanese resistance after the election of Sheikh Naim Al-Qassem as Secretary-General: Will the Lebanese resistance accept the separation between the two fronts? That the war on the northern front should stop and continue on the Gaza Strip front, which means that Hezbollah will break its pledges not to separate the two fronts. We are certain that what was rejected by the former Secretary-General of the party, His Eminence Nasrallah, who was assassinated by Israeli aircraft with American guided bombs weighing 900 kg, will not be accepted by the new Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim al-Qassem. The developments that took place on the Lebanese scene, with the widespread assassinations of a number of the party’s security and military leaders, within what was known as the deadly triple package, and hundreds of unprecedented air raids launched by Israeli aircraft that targeted the environment and structure of the resistance, leading to the ascension of the Secretary-General, His Eminence Sayyed Nasrallah, and his deputy, His Eminence Sheikh Hashem Safi al-Din, these developments, in addition to the comprehensive destructive war on the party and the resistance, and the quest to impose security and political conditions on Lebanon, pushed the resistance to modify its tactics, but its strategy did not change and its commitment to Gaza did not change. The Lebanese resistance has enough reasons to be convinced that the occupation cannot accept a ceasefire on the Lebanese front without obtaining gains and privileges related to its strategic project, and not to the course of its war on Gaza, the most important of which is what the occupation leaders are expressing regarding their efforts to amend Resolution 1701, and obtain the powers to pursue and chase the resistance on land inside Lebanese territory, and to overlook its continued occupation of Lebanese territory, and its violation of Lebanese airspace and waters under the pretext of security necessities, and to verify that the resistance is not armed. These aspirations open up the opportunity for the resistance to form a broad Lebanese front to defend Lebanese national sovereignty under the ceiling of the ceasefire and Resolution 1701 without amendment.

The resistance's alignment under this roof is based on the certainty that it is impossible for the occupying state to accept it after its investment in the war on the resistance in Lebanon has greatly inflated, and its costs have increased greatly, whether through the costs of the ground war or the resistance's targeting of the depths of the occupying state with missiles and drones. The occupation will not back down from seeking to achieve gains at the expense of Lebanese sovereignty to justify the size of the prices it has incurred except when forced, that is, when it is defeated.

If the occupation is forced to accept a ceasefire and Resolution 1701 without amendment, which guarantees its withdrawal from the occupied Lebanese territories and the cessation of its violations of Lebanese airspace and waters, it cannot do that and leave its war in Gaza continuing. There is the prisoners’ file and the question that awaits it: Why do you accept in Lebanon the end of the war without gains despite the losses, and continue the war in Gaza while the prisoners are exposed to death there?

Either the occupation is strong, in which case it will continue its war on Lebanon, or it is weak, in which case it will stop its war on Lebanon and Gaza with minimal losses. In this case, it is better for it to leave through the Gaza gate, because it is outside the umbrella of the Security Council and its balances, and under a purely American umbrella, which alone guarantees that if it stops, all other fronts will stop.

The resistance says in all its leaders’ positions that it is committed to Gaza, but it is not obligated to explain in detail how this will be achieved. As long as the war continues on both fronts, there is no need to worry. When someone sees a ceasefire on the Lebanese front but not on the Gaza front, let him ask the resistance how this happened.