Moeen Al-Taher: America and Israel succeeded in achieving a strategic accomplishment by separating the Lebanese file from the Palestinian one

Hatem Al-Falahi: The Israeli strategy towards Hezbollah has proven its failure, and the command and control system is still cohesive

Dr. Khaled Al-Azzi: Hagari’s talk about the imminent ceasefire reflects an Israeli plan to end the war before the US elections

Dr. Munther Hawarat: Indications that Israel may end its ground operations in southern Lebanon in response to American pressure

Contrary to the facts and data on the battlefield in southern Lebanon, the occupying state is raising the ceiling of its demands for accepting a ceasefire, such that it is no longer limited to removing Hezbollah fighters behind the Litani River, but rather extends to redrawing the political map in Lebanon and electing a new president according to considerations different from those set by the party and the political trend it represents.

Despite the passage of about twenty days, the occupation army has not succeeded in recording ground penetrations into Lebanese territory. On the contrary, it is suffering unprecedented losses in its soldiers, officers and tanks, which is urging the Israeli Prime Minister to achieve political gains, with the support of his American and European allies, that are much greater than the achievements of his army on the battle fronts.

But the question is: Is it possible to reach a ceasefire agreement on the Lebanese front in isolation from the Gaza Strip front? Or is what the martyred Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and later his deputy, Naim Qassem, repeatedly said about the two paths being interconnected, and that there will be no halt to the support front except by stopping the aggression on the Gaza Strip, so what about after the confrontation on the Lebanese front has expanded and is no longer just a support front?

Serious negotiations for a ceasefire on the Lebanese front

Researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, Moein Al-Taher, confirmed to “I” that the United States of America and Israel succeeded in achieving a strategic accomplishment by separating the Lebanese file from the Palestinian file, in light of recent developments.

Al-Tahir pointed out that the slogan of linking the ceasefire on the northern front to its cessation on the southern front has begun to fade, as serious negotiations are being conducted to reach a ceasefire agreement.

Al-Taher explained that there is agreement between the United States and Israel that this war should not end merely by weakening Hezbollah's military capabilities, but rather go beyond that to redrawing the political and sectarian map in Lebanon.

He explained that the demands related to the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces behind the Litani River or the Awali River, and the condition that their fighters not return to the south, have no real value from a military standpoint, since most of the fighters are residents of these southern regions, which makes it difficult to achieve such conditions without reformulating the political and sectarian equation in Lebanon.

Al-Tahir stressed that the expected ceasefire may be fragile and temporary, and may only extend until the end of the US elections and the clarity of the future of the next US administration.

A restrained Israeli response to Iran

On the other hand, Al-Taher said that the Israeli response to Iran yesterday morning was controlled according to the American-Israeli agreement, and that Netanyahu had succumbed to American pressure on him to make his response to Iran controlled, so the chances of an Iranian response to this attack may not be high.

He added: Iran has an excuse for this, which is the increasing talk about a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza, which the American administration is working hard to achieve at this stage. It is the same excuse that was used when Ismail Haniyeh was martyred in Iran, and it refrained from responding for a long time under the pretext that there are negotiations to achieve a ceasefire in that region and that it does not want to appear as someone who is obstructing such attempts.

Researcher Taher touched on the efforts made to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, which may extend for two weeks or more, noting that this agreement is driven by a request from the administration of US President Joe Biden, which prefers to calm the situation and stop the escalation during the US election period.

Al-Tahir explained that the US administration believes that the continuation of the battles and the war of extermination may negatively affect its chances of winning the upcoming elections.

He also indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may exploit the temporary ceasefire to portray it as an initial victory, especially after the martyrdom of Yahya Sinwar and the pressure on him regarding the recent exchange deal, in addition to what he considered an achievement in the deportation of the residents of Jabalia camp.

Al-Taher explained that Netanyahu may be inclined to agree to a temporary truce, but it remains hostage to developments in the regional situation and the results of the US elections, as well as the extent to which Israeli goals are achieved on the ground, which makes the ceasefire a temporary possibility with the possibility of resuming fighting later.

Hezbollah has begun to restore its combat capabilities.

In turn, military analyst Hatem Karim Al-Falahi said that the Israeli strategy towards Hezbollah has proven its failure to achieve the desired goals, as Israel relied on the collapse of Hezbollah's command and control system after targeting prominent leaders, including the party's secretary-general. However, Hezbollah has begun to regain its combat capabilities.

Al-Falahi explained to “I” that the battle on the Lebanese front is very different from the Gaza front, which may be one of the mistakes in the Israeli military leadership’s assessment of Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon.

He pointed out that the losses incurred by the Israeli army are increasing, as the army has failed to achieve significant breakthroughs, as it is still swayed in the border strip between the occupied territories and Lebanon.

Al-Falahi stressed that the nature of the mountainous terrain imposes another type of fighting, which the Israeli forces lack, making them unable to advance quickly.

He added: The capabilities of the Israeli military divisions differ significantly, as one division (Division 98) was able to achieve some accomplishments, while the other divisions failed to advance towards Lebanese areas such as Maroun al-Ras and Labbouneh.

Al-Falahi pointed out that Israel has begun to talk about UN Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah, as a means to achieve its goals without completing military operations. Despite Israeli attempts at escalation through the ongoing bombardment of the southern suburbs and the Bekaa, Hezbollah continues to launch its missiles with increasing intensity towards Haifa and Tel Aviv, which increases pressure on the Israeli home front and negatively affects the economy and public support for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Al-Falahi added: "The Israeli plan that was set to start the military campaign has become unworkable, which prompted the Israeli military leadership to talk about the final stages of the operation.

However, Al-Falahi believes that any cessation of fighting requires political conditions, as Hezbollah will not accept a cessation of fighting as long as Israel controls parts of the border strip, which indicates the need for political consensus between the two parties regarding the next stage.

Restricting the party's capabilities and weakening its influence in Lebanon

For his part, Lebanese political analyst Dr. Khaled Al-Azzi said: The statement of the Israeli army spokesman, Daniel Hagari, about the possibility of a ceasefire within a week or two, reflects a deliberate Israeli plan aimed at ending military operations before the US elections.

Al-Azzi explained that these operations are linked to a target bank that includes striking all of Hezbollah’s military, security, health, and logistical infrastructure, explaining that the goal is to restrict the party’s capabilities and weaken its influence in Lebanon.

Al-Azzi added: “The Israeli strategy also focuses on destroying the tunnels, trenches and infrastructure created by Hezbollah, which strengthens Israel’s control in the border areas and allows it to impose a ‘safe zone’.”

He stressed that the intensive attacks aim to implement Security Council Resolution 1701, which includes the deployment of the Lebanese army and international emergency forces in southern Lebanon and preventing the presence of Hezbollah in those areas.

In this context, Al-Azzi pointed out that Israel seeks to achieve these goals with iron and fire under American pressure and support from European countries.

Al-Azzi pointed out that Israel's military moves, in addition to international pressures, come within the framework of Washington and its allies' desire to arrange the political and security situation in Lebanon, which may be reflected in the economic situation there, especially with Lebanon's failure to respond to international conditions related to financial support, after it was placed on the global gray list.

Secret meetings in Paris

Al-Azzi referred to secret meetings that took place recently in Paris, during which France exerted great pressure on the Lebanese delegation, in order to enhance security and restructure the Lebanese political authority.

Al-Azzi said that Israel expects the new US administration to hand over a file that includes all the details about the military and security challenges with Hezbollah, which will allow the new administration to negotiate appropriately with the concerned parties.

This Israeli endeavor indicates that if military operations stop, the ceasefire will not mean the end of the crisis; rather, it is a prelude to future long-term understandings that target the stability of the border region, and perhaps finding radical solutions to the existing tension.

Al-Azzi explained that Israel's statement about stopping military operations is a "mined" strategic statement that carries multiple intentions, including enabling the Israeli negotiator to open the doors of negotiations and impose Israeli conditions on Lebanon in line with the new military and political reality.

International pressure on Washington to stop the war

As for the Jordanian writer and political analyst, Dr. Munther Hawarat, he told “Y”: There are indications that Israel may end its ground military operations in southern Lebanon in response to American pressure.

Dialogues indicated that this trend came as a result of increasing international pressure on the United States to stop the war in Lebanon, which prompted Israel to partially accept this pressure.

Dialogues made it clear that Israel, apparently, has achieved some of its military goals in Lebanon and has begun to sense signs of disintegration in the alliances supporting Hezbollah, as some former allies, such as Gebran Bassil, have turned against it. Figures affiliated with the party have also begun to demand acceptance of the implementation of UN Resolution 1701.

He added that there are questions about whether the solution in Lebanon will depend on implementing Resolution 1701 alone, noting that Israel's response to American pressure was also evident in the limited strike it launched against Iran, which came after the martyrdom of Yahya Sinwar.

Hawarat stressed that these developments may indicate the beginning of a strategic shift in the course of the Israeli aggression on both Gaza and Lebanon, but he believes that the details of this shift will remain unclear and perhaps kept secret in the coming stage.