Dr. Hassan Ayoub: What is currently happening on the ground is more dangerous than the “Deal of the Century,” and Blinken’s plan is nothing new and will not succeed

Bassam Zakarneh: Any attempts to pass political solutions away from the active factions will be doomed to failure

Khalil Shaheen: Blinken's plan is unworkable and trying to decide the fate of the Palestinians behind their backs is doomed to failure

Dr. Dalal Erekat: Any plan must be based on Palestinian national legitimacy and not by imposing solutions from outside

Magda El-Masry: Any plans for “The Next Day” are doomed to fail in advance if they go beyond the Palestinian position

Sulaiman Basharat: Talking about an American plan now reflects the Biden administration’s attempts to promote itself ahead of the elections

Reports of a plan by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken for the so-called "day after" the war on the Gaza Strip, and the possibility of deploying international forces there while marginalizing the role of the Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas, are raising controversy over the possibility of implementing it on the ground, amid fears that it may be more dangerous than the "deal of the century" proposed by former US President Donald Trump years ago.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, analysts and political leaders believe that the plan being promoted comes within the framework of an ongoing American strategy aimed at normalizing relations in the region and establishing a regional alliance to confront Iran and its allies, while trying to eliminate Palestinian and Arab resistance factions.

According to leaders, writers and analysts, the success of this plan depends on the results of the upcoming US presidential elections, as well as the aggression on Gaza and Lebanon and the escalation between Israel and Iran.

They believe that the current situation is more dangerous than the "Deal of the Century", as Israel has succeeded in expanding its influence in the West Bank and signing normalization agreements, while seeking to separate Gaza from the West Bank.

They believe that there are great doubts about the possibility of the success of Blinken's plan, due to the social and factional complexities in Gaza and Israel's desire to control the Strip, and that any attempts to bypass the legitimate Palestinian leadership will be doomed to failure.

Blinken's plan re-promotes old ideas and nothing new

Writer, political analyst and specialist in American affairs, Hassan Ayoub, explains that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s plan comes within the framework of the ongoing US strategy, which focuses on returning to the path of normalizing relations in the region, and establishing a regional alliance to confront Iran and its allies, while seeking to get rid of Palestinian and Arab resistance factions.

Ayoub points out that Israel and its allies believe that the intensity of the aggression on Gaza may pave the way for the passage of a settlement project according to their vision, but they do not know that this may clash with the war in Lebanon or with Iran.

Ayoub stresses that there is nothing new in Blinken's plan, as it re-promotes old ideas, especially talk of commercial and real estate projects in the Gaza Strip.

However, he stresses that the imposition of this plan depends mainly on the results of the upcoming US presidential elections, as they are based on the principle of regional normalization, as well as the results of the ongoing battles on the ground, whether in Gaza or in Lebanon and the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, which may hinder the implementation of these plans, stressing that these developments serve the interest of disrupting any US-Israeli settlement.

On the other hand, Ayoub points out that so far the Palestinian Authority has not issued any response to Blinken's plan.

Israel rejects any kind of political representation for the Palestinians.

Ayoub expresses his concern that the Palestinian Authority is adopting a strategy based on trying to "smart", that is, trying to improve the conditions for the Authority's survival in light of its inability to change the existing reality, but here the Authority must be aware that Israel absolutely rejects any kind of political representation for the Palestinians.

Ayoub believes that what is currently happening on the ground is more dangerous than the “Deal of the Century,” whose provisions were achieved after Israel succeeded in seizing large parts of the West Bank, as well as concluding normalization agreements, and seeks to completely eliminate the option of an independent Palestinian state. At the same time, Israel is trying to separate Gaza from the West Bank by establishing a separate entity in the Strip that has no political dimension, while undermining the work of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

Ayoub explains that implementing Blinken's plan, if it happens, means ending any role for the Palestinian factions, despite the continued rejection of this plan by all components of the Gaza Strip.

Ayoub doubts the success of Blinken's plan due to the complex social and factional structure within the Gaza Strip, and Israel's desire to maintain its complete control over Gaza, and these two factors are likely to ultimately thwart Blinken's plan.

Any solutions that are not in line with the rights of the Palestinian people will be rejected.

Bassam Zakarneh, a member of the Revolutionary Council of the Fatah Movement, confirms that the Palestinian people, with all their components, place among their priorities the end of the ongoing suffering in the Gaza Strip in particular.

Zakarna stresses that any solutions proposed that are not in line with the rights of the Palestinian people will be met with categorical rejection, not only by the Palestinians, but by the Arab nation and the free people of the world.

Zakarneh believes that the plan proposed by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is part of the "illusion-selling" projects that aim to dismantle the Palestinian and regional arena in order to pass policies to reshape the new Middle East according to the American and Israeli vision.

On the other hand, Zakarna explains that there is a positive dialogue between the Fatah and Hamas movements that began in Beijing regarding ending the division and the form of management of the next stage after the end of the aggression against the Palestinian people, which will be carried out by a government of consensus between the two parties, with emphasis on the unity of government and the unity of reference in a way that guarantees the leadership of the Palestinian people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with the aim of confronting any attempts aimed at ending the Palestinian Authority and the national factions or harming the reference of the PLO.

Zakarna confirms that there is a general awareness among all Palestinian forces that there is an attempt to target the representation of the Palestinian people by forming a new authority separate from its people and legitimate factions, led by America and some regional countries.

Zakarneh warns that any attempt to form an administrative committee that is not linked to the PLO and the Palestinian factions will be considered as a cancellation of the role of the factions, which is categorically rejected by everyone.

Zakarna asserts that Israel, America, and those behind them will not find in the Palestinian arena any new “village associations” or local militias like the “Lahad Army,” which Israel used in southern Lebanon during its occupation to pass treasonous projects.

Zakarna points out that the Palestinian people have become united today in the face of the bleeding unity and have set before their eyes one goal, which is to end the Israeli aggression, which must be crowned by the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Zakarna stresses that Blinken's plan, or any other international project, will not succeed if it is not coupled with a political solution that guarantees the rights of the Palestinian people, most notably their right to establish their independent state.

Zakarneh stresses that any attempts to pass political solutions away from the legitimate Palestinian leadership and the active factions, headed by President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestine Liberation Organization, will be doomed to failure.

Factors that make Blinken's plan unworkable

Writer and political analyst Khalil Shaheen believes that the plan currently being discussed by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken does not seem feasible for several factors.

According to Shaheen, the first of these factors is the future of Blinken himself, who may not remain in his position after November 5 in any new administration formation after the elections, whether Trump or Harris wins, which makes it necessary to wait to know his fate, especially in light of the differences within the Democratic Party about how the Biden administration will deal with the Middle East crisis and the war on Gaza.

The other factor, Shaheen explains, is the existence of large gaps between the Emirati and Israeli positions, as well as between the American and Israeli positions. These gaps are primarily related to the issue of the end line of this plan, as the Emirates and the United States talk about a political horizon that includes a two-state solution, which Israel clearly rejects. There are even laws in the Knesset that prevent the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. In addition, there is an Israeli refusal to give any role to the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip, which deepens the gap between the three parties: the United States, the Emirates, and Israel, and makes it difficult to bridge these differences.

Shaheen explains that the plan currently being proposed refers to the establishment of two separate entities: the first in Gaza under direct or indirect Israeli military rule, and the second in the West Bank, parts of which are controlled by the Palestinian Authority. However, the success of this plan would effectively mean separating the West Bank from Gaza, which contradicts the two-state solution that the United States and the Emirates are talking about, and serves Israeli interests that seek to continue the occupation of Gaza and even revive settlements in the northern part of the Strip.

Shaheen also believes that there is a third factor, the regional factor, which plays an important role. Shaheen doubts that influential countries in the region, such as Egypt and Jordan, will accept this plan. These two countries have clearly expressed their refusal to send any forces to Gaza unless fundamental issues are addressed, such as a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip and the unification of the Palestinian Authority to administer both Gaza and the West Bank, with a political horizon.

Another important factor is the exclusion of Palestinian factions and the Palestinian Authority from the ongoing consultations. According to Shaheen, trying to decide the fate of the Palestinians without involving them in these consultations will end in failure. He pointed out that Israel had previously tried to manage Gaza through various initiatives such as managing Gaza’s affairs through families, which was rejected. The ongoing military operations in northern Gaza also demonstrate the continued strength of Hamas.

In this context, Shaheen points out that Hamas and Fatah had agreed to form an administrative committee to administer Gaza, but disagreements over the nature of this committee, its powers and its reference led to a dead end, as happened in the Cairo talks.

More than a year after the war of extermination, Shaheen believes that the main problem is the absence of a clear and comprehensive Palestinian vision to deal with the challenges related to managing Palestinian affairs in the West Bank and Gaza, as well as the major challenges resulting from the war of extermination, including reconstruction, relief, and a ceasefire.

A comprehensive Palestinian dialogue is required.

Shaheen asserts that the absence of a coherent Palestinian vision regarding the day after the war, and how to manage the Gaza Strip as part of the Palestinian political system, leaves a political vacuum that is being filled by plans and ideas put forward behind the Palestinians’ backs.

Shaheen confirms that the Palestinian factions in Gaza continue to play a pivotal role in the resistance against the Israeli occupation, and it is likely to continue as long as the occupation remains, and those factions cannot be bypassed.

Therefore, Shaheen stresses that what is required is a comprehensive Palestinian dialogue that is not limited to the factions, but rather includes civil society and independents to reach a Palestinian vision capable of thwarting any initiative that is put forward, doubting the possibility of implementing these plans in the first place.

Major challenges related to international will

Dr. Dalal Erekat, Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution at the Arab American University, believes that the “day after” plan for war being studied by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, which was developed by the UAE and Israel, faces major challenges related to international will, especially with reliance on the US role in determining the course of events in the region.

Erekat points out that this plan includes the deployment of temporary international forces, and then the formation of a new Palestinian government, with clear marginalization of the role of President Mahmoud Abbas and his government. However, Erekat believes that this marginalization is completely unacceptable, as President Abbas is the legitimate elected representative of the Palestinian people, and the Palestine Liberation Organization is the sole representative on the international scene.

Erekat stresses that any plan must be based on Palestinian national legitimacy and respect for existing institutions, and not by imposing solutions from outside without national consensus.

She believes that imposing a plan without conducting a comprehensive Palestinian dialogue, including all parties and political movements, will deepen the internal division and will not serve the national interest.

Erekat warns of the danger of attempts to separate the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, or to ignore the role of the Palestine Liberation Organization, noting that this could undermine the unity of the Palestinian territories and threaten the Palestinians' right to self-determination.

A sustainable solution must come through comprehensive national unity.

Erekat stresses that the sustainable solution must come through comprehensive national unity and respect for the unity of the Palestinian territories, while strengthening national consensus and rebuilding the Palestinian political system on democratic foundations that accommodate all segments of society, including youth and women.

Erekat calls for caution in dealing with any international plan, demanding that the outcomes of the comprehensive Palestinian dialogue be the basis for any official Palestinian response to international proposals.

She stresses that ignoring the Palestinian factions in any political solution may deepen internal differences and undermine the chances of achieving a sustainable solution to the Palestinian issue.

Erekat believes that the best solution lies in involving all Palestinian parties in a transparent national dialogue to determine the future of Palestine as an integrated geographical unit, far from any attempts to impose solutions from outside without comprehensive consensus.

The Palestinian people will not pass the plan

Magda Al-Masry, Deputy Secretary-General of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, affirms that the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, with their legendary steadfastness for more than a year in the face of the genocide practiced by Israel, and their resistance that has become a symbol of the struggle against the Israeli occupation army, will not pass the new Israeli-American plan that is being promoted by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

Al-Masry says: “This plan, sponsored by Blinken with the support of the Emirates, seeks to legitimize the occupation through an Arab partnership and cover with a normalizing state.”

Al-Masry stresses the need to pressure the Arab League to stop such proposals and uncover them, stressing that the unified Palestinian position will be able to impose its will on some Arab countries that are calling for an end to the division and the restoration of national unity.

It stresses the importance of intensifying Arab and international diplomatic efforts to curb these plans, which essentially aim to liquidate the Palestinian cause.

Al-Masry believes that any plans for the so-called "day after the war" are doomed to failure in advance, as the Palestinian popular and official position and the resistance factions cannot be ignored.

She explains that the basis at this stage is the unity of the Palestinian position, which was adopted in the Beijing Dialogue and the Beijing Declaration, signed by 14 Palestinian factions, which requires immediate implementation of what was stated in it to confront the dangerous scenarios that are being proposed for the so-called “day after the war,” which basically aim to separate Gaza from the West Bank. This is the fundamental goal of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his War Council, which is to separate Gaza from the West Bank, bypass the Palestine Liberation Organization as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and eliminate the resistance.

The need for a rapid convening of the unified and temporary leadership framework

Al-Masry calls for a quick convening of the unified and temporary leadership framework, which includes all the factions of the Palestinian national action and the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and to begin forming a national consensus government that will be the body with legal jurisdiction in the West Bank and Gaza.

Al-Masry warns that any formula proposed to administer Gaza must be based on the Palestine Liberation Organization and the National Consensus Government, stressing that a unified Palestinian position would impose itself on the Arab countries that are calling for an end to the division and the restoration of national unity.

Al-Masry stresses that any formula for managing the Gaza Strip without clear, agreed-upon Palestinian references is rejected, and the Palestinian popular, official and resistance position cannot be ignored.

Al-Masry points out that such a formula for managing the Gaza Strip will contribute to separating the West Bank from Gaza and dividing the Palestinian territories, which essentially serves the Zionist liquidation project adopted by Netanyahu and Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

This project, according to Al-Masry, aims to annex and resolve the final conflict over the land, according to the vision of the occupation government.

Al-Masry explains that Netanyahu has repeatedly announced his vision for the future of the Middle East, from the United Nations General Assembly, that the region be rearranged according to Israeli interests, and under complete Israeli hegemony and control, with the support of the United States.

Blinken's plan is the same as the "Deal of the Century" plan

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat believes that talk of an American plan at this time reflects the Biden administration's attempts to promote itself ahead of the upcoming US elections.

Basharat believes that presenting the plan at this stage, especially with the end of Biden's term approaching and the return of the Democratic administration not guaranteed, is part of a political campaign aimed at demonstrating the administration's presence on the international stage, in an attempt to record a media "achievement" related to the war in Gaza.

Basharat points out that talking about this plan at this time represents an attempt by the US administration to attract critical groups, such as the Arab and Islamic communities, by suggesting that the Democrats are able to provide solutions if they are re-elected.

Basharat doubts the possibility of this plan seeing the light of day, as he considers it merely a marketing attempt by the Biden administration aimed at satisfying the American street, and does not have any serious elements to achieve success.

Basharat believes that this plan will face the same fate as many previous initiatives that failed to end Palestinian rights and provide achievements for Israel, making its fate linked to the desires of the occupation and ignoring the rights of the Palestinian people.

Unrealistic plan

Basharat stresses that the plan that Blinken is talking about is far from realistic, but rather is seen as part of an internal marketing strategy aimed at supporting the Biden administration in the United States.

On the other hand, Basharat believes that the American and Israeli goals are identical regarding the war on Gaza, as the United States aims to end the Palestinian resistance and the entire regional axis of resistance.

Basharat explains that Israel seeks to dismantle the resistance forces in a comprehensive manner, pointing out that what Israel is doing on the ground reflects its desire to continue the war, and not to accept any political solutions even if they are in its favor.

He stresses that the continuation of the war serves the goals of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks to achieve internal political gains and protect his future. In addition, the war aims to reshape the intellectual and ideological structure within Israel, a process that began with judicial reforms and now extends to the army and influences other political currents.

Basharat believes that any American plan presented to Israel at this time will not receive serious attention from the Israeli side, because it is not consistent with Netanyahu's goals and strategy.

Basharat describes US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's plan as merely a "public relations plan" aimed at marketing media achievements, without any realistic basis or acceptance from the concerned parties, whether from Israel or some regional countries that may object to certain provisions in it.

Basharat believes that this plan represents an extension of the “Deal of the Century,” as it seeks to isolate the West Bank from the Gaza Strip and establish a Palestinian entity in the Strip, which aims to empty the Palestinian issue of its political content and transform it into an administrative and humanitarian issue.

This approach, according to Basharat, ignores the basic Palestinian demands for liberation from the occupation, and prefers to present solutions based on managing the status quo.

Regarding the impact of this plan on the unity of the Palestinian territories, Basharat believes that it seeks to establish separation between Gaza and the West Bank, which threatens to undermine the Palestinian political reference made up of Palestinian factions.

Basharat points out that implementing the plan will mean the end of the Palestinian political components and their legitimate umbrella, which is what Israel is looking forward to.