Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed: The war has begun to take on a regional character with Iran’s entry into the conflict, and the possibility of escalation is likely

Dr. Ghaniya Malhis: The current war, despite its high cost, carries indicators of important strategic transformations that may herald a renaissance

Aziz Al-Assa: The scenario that worries America is the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran and the targeting of its nuclear or oil facilities.

Ali Al-Marabi: The "New Middle East" project depends on fragmenting Arab countries, which serves Israeli and Iranian interests

Dr. Mukhaimer Abu Saada: The events of October 7th return the Palestinian cause to the forefront of the international and regional political scene

Dr. Amani Al-Qarm: Current data does not indicate an imminent end to the war, and Netanyahu’s government believes that its continuation achieves greater gains than its cessation

Dr. Hossam Al-Dajani: Geopolitical shifts may contribute to prolonging the current conflict led by Israel and in which Washington has an interest

The war of extermination waged by the occupying state on the Gaza Strip enters its second year today, Monday, without any signs on the horizon of a possible halt in light of the open American support for Israel politically, militarily and diplomatically, which rises to the level of full partnership in this war, without the exposed role it plays as a "mediator" helping it, which places more obstacles in the way of stopping the war than it helps in extinguishing its flames.

What also complicates the scene is the imbalance of international standards and norms, -at the official level- towards the suffering of the Palestinian people, especially in the Gaza Strip, where there is continuous bombing and daily massacres, whether due to fear of America and its striking tool, Israel, or due to sympathy with the criminal and not the victim and justifying his bloody practices as a "legitimate right to self-defense." This was reflected in the inability of the highest international bodies affiliated with the United Nations, specifically the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice and even the Security Council and the General Assembly, which were unable to translate their decisions and oblige the Israeli state of extermination to abide by them.

Israel's decision to expand the scope of the war and escalate it on the Lebanese front, and to replicate the model it followed in the Gaza Strip, in terms of brutal bombing, massacres and displacement, as well as the increased chances of a confrontation between Israel and Iran, especially after the unprecedented Iranian missile attack on it at the beginning of this month, makes the chances of stopping the war in Gaza remote.

The occupation has not achieved its goals after a year of war of extermination

In turn, Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed, a strategic expert in the Arab-Israeli conflict, confirmed that after a year of the “war of extermination” waged by Israel, it has not been able to achieve its main goals, most notably the liberation of Israeli prisoners.

Ahmed told Al-Watan: The occupation's declared goal in Gaza was not achieved, and what happened was the destruction of buildings, infrastructure, mosques and churches, and this is "a criminal act, not an act of war."

Ahmed pointed out that the war is no longer limited to the Gaza Strip, but has extended to other regions, from Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, to the assassinations of leaders in Hezbollah, adding: “The war has begun to take on a regional character, especially with Iran’s entry into the conflict, which means the possibility of escalation and mutual reactions between Israel and Iran.

The strategic expert continued by saying: The Al-Aqsa flood that began in Gaza is expanding to include the entire region, and the Israeli occupation, despite its belief that it is winning, is facing an expansion of the conflict, in light of the absence of a real dialogue within the Israeli occupation state to end this massacre. He expressed his belief that the conflict will continue to expand.

He believed that the intensification of Iranian and Hezbollah strikes against Tel Aviv, and not just on the border strip, could lead to achieving balance and real peace. However, if the situation continues as it is, the Israeli occupation will continue its war without facing any punishment.

The war is long-running and still in its early stages.

For her part, Dr. Ghaniya Malhis, writer and researcher in politics and economics, said: The current war waged by the racist Western colonial Zionist alliance against the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples, despite its high cost, carries within it indications of important strategic transformations that may herald a future renaissance.

Malhis pointed out that the massive destruction and human losses suffered by Palestinian and Lebanese camps and cities, which exceeded in their density and geographical distribution what humanity witnessed during World War II, should not obscure these transformations.

She added: The most prominent of these transformations are: the continued steadfastness of the Gaza Strip, the escalation of resistance in the West Bank, the failure of the Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon, the increase in coordination and unity of the arenas in the axis of resistance, the clarity of the position of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regarding the existential conflict, and the change in regional and international positions, as manifested in the UN General Assembly resolution supported by 124 countries, which called for ending the occupation within a specific time frame of 12 months, and the formation of an Arab coalition to implement the resolution, the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister to Iran to resolve the misunderstanding, and the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Russian community in Israel to return to Russia, and the warning of Russian pilots to revoke their Russian citizenship if they choose to stay.

Malhis stressed that the war is long-term and still in its early stages, noting that the region will face difficult years, but the defeat of the racist Western Zionist colonial alliance has become inevitable in the foreseeable future, as no alliance that relies on continuous wars of extermination can achieve security or survival.

The chances of the conflict expanding in the region are weak.

Writer and researcher Aziz Al-Assa told Al-Arabiya: “With the passage of a year since the war of extermination on Gaza, the expansion of the conflict in the region seems unlikely based on the current perspective and data.”

He explained that the United States is striving to separate the arenas by pushing for a settlement between Israel and Hezbollah, with the aim of enabling Israel to focus on the Gaza Strip.

Al-Assa pointed out that the scenario that worries America, and is difficult to rule out, is the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel to the point of no return, especially if major nuclear or oil facilities in Iran are targeted.

He said: "This escalation could lead to a war that includes other arenas such as Iraq and Yemen, with mutual strikes with Israel that could have a greater impact on Tel Aviv than they have so far."

He added: "Such a scenario would push the United States to enter the war in defense of Israel, to ensure its continued access to energy sources in the Middle East, and to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in the region."

Al-Assa pointed out that the analysis depends on the survival of the current Israeli leadership, which has closed the file of detainees held by the resistance and ruled out any negotiation regarding them, explaining: “If a less extremist Israeli leadership takes over, the file of detainees may be a priority that ends the conflict with serious negotiations and a long-term ceasefire, if not a permanent one.”

The establishment of a Palestinian state is excluded at the present stage

Ali Al-Marabi, Secretary General of the Union of Arab Journalists and Writers in Europe, expressed his solidarity with the Palestinian people in view of the enormous human losses they have suffered in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli war resulted in the martyrdom of more than fifty thousand people, and the injury of hundreds of thousands, in addition to the widespread destruction of the infrastructure, including roads, hospitals and entire cities.

Al-Marabi told Al-Masdar Online: The Gaza Strip may witness major changes after the war stops, suggesting that Hamas will not be able to manage the Strip alone after the war ends due to field, regional and political changes.

It is likely that the role of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza will be expanded, or a joint civil administration will be established, or in the most extreme cases, a comprehensive solution will be considered, but the establishment of a Palestinian state at this stage remains unlikely.

Al-Marabi explained that the Israeli occupation does not seek to establish a Palestinian state, but rather works, as a result of the understandings taking place behind the scenes with Iran and under American sponsorship, to implement plans that aim to divide the region into sectarian and ethnic states, pointing out that the “New Middle East” project is based primarily on fragmenting the Arab states, which serves Israeli and Iranian interests.

Al-Marabi explained that the official Arab system is going through a phase of complete failure and inability to contribute to any changes that contribute positively to protecting Arab national security, expressing his belief that the next phase will be a phase full of challenges and we must all stand together with our Palestinian brothers until the establishment of the independent Palestinian state.

Al-Marabi called on Arab countries to stop the accelerated path of normalization with Israel, warning that this weakens the position of the Palestinians in any negotiations.

The situation in Gaza is tragic and the extent of the destruction and the number of victims is catastrophic.

Political analyst Dr. Mukhaimer Abu Saada, professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, told Al-Arabiya: “A year after the events of October 7 and the subsequent Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, the situation in the Strip is tragic on all levels.”

He added: On the humanitarian level, the scale of the destruction and the number of victims in the Gaza Strip are catastrophic. On the political level, these events have returned the Palestinian issue to the forefront of international and regional attention, as a result of the October 7 attack and Israel's violent response, which Abu Saada described as a "war of extermination."

Regarding the expected developments in the next phase, Abu Saada said: The scene is open to all possibilities, and that Israel may seek to expand the aggression to include Hezbollah and Lebanon to settle old scores. Abu Saada also did not rule out that the confrontation with Iran will escalate, based on the possible Israeli response to the Iranian attacks.

Abu Saada stressed that there is an urgent need for effective international intervention, especially by the United States, to prevent the conflict from expanding and turning into a comprehensive regional confrontation, which would not be in the interest of the international community.

He stressed that the absence of a political settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is what led to the events of October 7, and that without a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue, there will be no stability or security in the region.

According to Abu Saada, one of the lessons that must be drawn from these events is the necessity of reaching a political solution based on international legitimacy resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative, to avoid a recurrence of such events in the future.

Strengthening Israel's position as a central regional power

Dr. Amani Al-Qarm, a writer and political researcher on American affairs, said in an interview with “Y”, that the current data does not indicate that the war is about to end, noting that the conditions for ending the war have not yet matured, for several reasons.

According to Al-Qarm, the first reason is that Netanyahu’s far-right government believes that expanding the war provides greater gains than stopping it. This government, supported by a large segment of the far-right and settlers, views this escalation as a “golden” opportunity to get rid of Israel’s enemies and change the geopolitical reality in the region.

She added: Such a move aims to strengthen Israel's position as a central regional power in the Middle East within an extended Zionist project. The absence of strong opposition within Israel also strengthens the position of Netanyahu and his government, especially after it achieved a number of strategic successes and expanded its governmental base, which increases its legitimacy and strength internally.

She continued: The second reason is related to the United States, the strategic ally and absolute supporter of Israel, noting that its current preoccupation with the election season weakens its ability or desire to pressure Israel to stop the war.

Israel benefits from US electoral competition

Al-Qarm said: Although Washington repeatedly calls for a ceasefire in the media, it provides full military, intelligence and diplomatic support to Israel, which has given the latter the opportunity to escape punishment on the international stage.

Israel also benefits from the electoral competition between Republicans and Democrats, as Netanyahu hopes that Donald Trump will win due to the close relationship that brought them together in the past, which may negatively affect the Democrats’ chances in the elections.

The third reason, according to Al-Qarm, is Israel’s success in achieving difficult strategic goals, including penetrating Hezbollah’s system and assassinating its leader and most of its leaders, in addition to carrying out repeated assassinations of Hamas leaders and liquidating Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. These successes strengthened Israel’s position and enabled it to re-impose the rules of engagement, which prompted voices within the United States to pressure the Biden administration not to talk about a ceasefire, considering that this war also serves the interests of the United States.

Al-Qarm expected that the coming days would witness an additional escalation extending to Syria and Iran, an escalation that would have important geopolitical repercussions at the level of regional alliances, and would also double the suffering of peoples who have tasted the severity of the pain of war and its repercussions throughout a year.

War is in the American interest to weaken Iran's influence in the region

In turn, Dr. Hussam Al-Dajani, Professor of Political Science at Al-Ummah University in Gaza, confirmed in a statement to “I” that there are geopolitical transformations that may contribute to prolonging the current conflict led by Israel.

He pointed out that the American position, which was initially not encouraging to extend the war, is witnessing a change, as this war may serve the interests of the United States by weakening Iran's influence in the region by directing strikes against Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance.

Al-Dajani explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in continuing the war, and is relying on continued American support, and may be waiting for the results of the upcoming American elections.

Al-Dajani expressed his belief that this war may serve the interests of major global powers such as Russia, as Iran's entry into the conflict may lead to an increase in oil prices, which will help Moscow overcome its economic crisis resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war.

He pointed out that the Arab and international position is not encouraging to stop the war, describing it as not influencing Israel to stop its military operations.

Al-Dajani expected that Israel would continue its military campaign without any major internal or external pressures that would push it to retreat, considering that the possibility of the war escalating and extending to a wider scope is very likely, which would have major repercussions on the future of the region and the map of the Middle East.