The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that the intensive strikes launched by the Israeli army on Hezbollah do not give Iran any reason to participate in the fighting, noting that the new phase of the conflict puts Tehran at an inappropriate diplomatic moment.

The newspaper stated that Iran is currently focusing on a diplomatic campaign with the aim of reaching a political solution with the United States regarding its nuclear program.

However, according to the newspaper, it is still too early to ascertain what the Iranian leadership, headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, wants, and whether it is truly seeking to resolve the nuclear issue or whether its goal is merely to buy time until October 2025, the date of the expiration of the clause that allows European countries to renew sanctions on Iran without veto power in the Security Council.

The last thing it wants

In both cases, as the newspaper says, the last thing Iran wants amid its current diplomatic campaign is to be dragged into a direct military confrontation with Israel, let alone the United States.

Iran has sought a ceasefire since the beginning of the war in Gaza, but as the war has continued, it has sought to exhaust Israel in a long, multi-front war without paying too high a price. It has strongly condemned Israel’s actions and called on the international community to work to stop the strikes launched by Israeli forces on Hezbollah targets.

The Iranian president told CNN that Lebanon should not be left to become “another Gaza” at the hands of Israel, and explained that Hezbollah cannot stand alone against a state like Israel, which possesses advanced weapons and enjoys the support of the United States.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was part of the nuclear negotiating team that led to the historic 2015 agreement with the United States, confirmed to New York that Iran will not remain indifferent to the Israeli attacks and said that it will support Lebanon, but it is clear - according to the newspaper - that Iran will not intervene militarily directly on behalf of Hezbollah at this stage, especially since senior Iranian officials have warned in recent days against falling into a trap set by Israel for Iran.

Evasive measures

Pezeshkian accused Israel of seeking a large-scale war in the Middle East and trying to create a situation that would drag his country into a comprehensive confrontation. His foreign minister said that Iran is fully aware that Israel is trying to escape the predicament it faces in Gaza by dragging Iran and the United States into the war, but Tehran has no intention of falling into this trap.

Yedioth Ahronoth expected that Iran would drag Israel into a long-term war of attrition with Hezbollah if Tel Aviv decided to launch a ground operation in Lebanon, which could drain Israel militarily and on the home front, and prevent it from achieving its goals both in Gaza and on the northern front.

However, the severe and prolonged damage to Hezbollah's strategic capabilities could lead to a change in Iran's assessment of its ability to maintain Hezbollah as a primary strategic arm to deter Israel and respond in the event of an attack on its nuclear facilities.

This scenario - according to Raz Zimmt, a researcher and expert on Iranian affairs at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies - may force Iran to intervene directly to save the Hezbollah project that it has sponsored for decades, unless a ceasefire is reached before Iran needs to intervene.

Source: Yedioth Ahronoth+ Al Jazeera