Are we on the verge of a regional war?

The Middle East has been undergoing rapid transformations since the beginning of the Arab-Israeli conflict and after the invasion of Iraq and the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, then the events of the so-called Arab Spring and the emergence of Iran's hegemony over Iraq, and then the spread of clear control of several parties, including Hezbollah, as a party resisting Israel, and fully supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and other countries, and the establishment of militias supported by Iran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, which are under orders from Iran. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, indicated in a speech about the party's strategy, saying: "We must remove the colonial and Israeli situation, and our project, which we have no choice but to adopt, as we are ideological believers, is the project of the Islamic state and the rule of Islam, and that Lebanon is not a single Islamic republic, but rather part of the greater Islamic Republic, which is ruled by the Master of the Age and his deputy, the rightful guardian jurist, Imam Khomeini."

The problem here is that the Arab Islamic countries are characterized by being composed of several races, sects and nationalities, and thus such an approach conflicts with many parties in the Arab countries, especially in Lebanon, where it conflicts with the idea of Lebanon being under the command of the Supreme Leader in Iran, including the Sunni parties present in Lebanon. This intellectual trend has led to an ideological rift between the Sunni and Shiite parties in Lebanon and the Arab countries in general. Hezbollah has entered into a conflict with Israel during several stages in confrontations, including the July 2006 war, and now the Israeli conflict with Hamas in Gaza, which has led to a heated phase currently, specifically on the southern side of Lebanon with Israel. It appears that there are signs of the development of this conflict into a bloody war between them, represented by the firing of missiles deep into Israel and Israeli missiles and shelling in southern Lebanon.

The war between Hezbollah and Israel has evolved and with this course the rules of engagement have changed, from a defensive position by Israel to a new offensive strategy, especially recently, with the aim of exhausting Hezbollah’s military forces, as Israel destroyed the communications network (pager and wireless) that connects Hezbollah members and elements, using cyber warfare technology, where these devices were remotely detonated and many of them were killed and injured, followed by bombing and air targeting operations that targeted the southern suburb, resulting in the killing of Ibrahim Aqil (head of the special operations unit of the Radwan Forces), in addition to the killing of about 30 leaders and members of the Radwan Forces.

The importance of targeting the first ranks of the Radwan forces for Israel, at this particular stage and after months of conflict approaching a year, is to exhaust and perhaps completely eliminate Hezbollah’s military forces and reduce the party’s military capabilities, and of course also eliminate all the armed militias supported by Iran in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen and present in the Arab region. This bloody conflict will inevitably enter a deeper and more intense phase of conflict, and indirectly it will include striking Iran through the most important card that Iran possesses in the Arab region, which is Hezbollah.

Israel has recently targeted weapons depots, command and control centers, and strategic weapons that can be used in war. This new phase will inevitably lead us into the most prominent scenario, which is the opening of several fronts in the region that will directly enter a state of regional war. The first front is, of course, Gaza and the West Bank, and the front of the Houthi Ansar Allah Party in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Consequently, it will lead to a direct war between these fronts on the one hand and Israel on the other. It is known that all of these fronts witness the presence and spread of militias supported by Iran.

The main front of the war is of course the one in Gaza, where the clashes are ongoing, but after that, without a doubt, all the aforementioned fronts will intensify and the intensity of the clashes will escalate, so that we will practically be facing a wide regional war arena with Israel, inevitably, and within the possibility that it will affect the neighboring countries, including the border countries of these already burning fronts, in a way that is heading towards development and in a way that can open the door to war wide open between Israel and Iran, meaning the possibility of Iran responding to the killing of the head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement, Ismail Haniyeh, and through the Syrian front, which has recently become clear, as Israel targeted the Iranian militias present in the border areas with qualitative bombing operations, and recently, Iranian movements were sensed, represented by preparing the factions loyal to it, especially on the border with Israel. These movements by the factions were centered in two military airports inside Syria near Sweida, namely the Tha’la Airport and the Khalkhala Airport near the Golan Heights area that Israel occupied in 1967, and these militias are loyal to Iran. Including armed factions of the Houthis, the Zainabiyoun Brigade, the Fatemiyoun Brigade, the Abbas Forces, and the Iraqi Hezbollah under the banner of the Popular Mobilization Forces, and groups of Afghans and Bengalis. All of these militias and armed groups are waiting for the announcement of zero hour and Iran’s orders for them to launch from this front, which will open from the Syrian border towards the Golan, and thus towards participating in the new regional war.

As for the Sweida region, it has witnessed widespread demonstrations for more than a year, and the Syrian state has not controlled the situation and security of this region, which has made it outside the influence of the Syrian regime and practically isolated from the Syrian political geography. The most important thing is that this southern region of the Syrian desert contains many militias that possess advanced missiles and is about 55 kilometers from the Golan and also close to the Syrian-Jordanian border. This geographical region, which is part of the fire belt surrounding Israel and on the borders of the southern Syrian desert directly adjacent to the Jordanian border, is apparently looking towards Iran to open up this front, which will lead to Jordanian intervention to protect its borders and citizens, especially since Jordan has repeatedly announced that it will not allow the use of Jordanian lands and airspace by any party.

As for the Lebanese front, specifically southern Lebanon, represented by Hezbollah, this front has been on fire and tense since the beginning of the conflict between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. However, in this regional war, matters will escalate and deepen towards a completely open war between the two sides, in a way that makes the previous rules of engagement useless. It is known that Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is in fact an essential part of the fire belt that surrounds Israel from the north. Israel, in preparation for this potential regional confrontation, preempted it by striking Hezbollah’s infrastructure and killing some of its first-line leaders, including the Radwan forces, and apparently dismantling the communication networks between the party’s elements. In response, Hezbollah will intensify its rocket fire to prevent Israel from achieving its goals. Therefore, if Israel is able to eliminate the party’s infrastructure and military through aerial and artillery bombardment, there is a current possibility of a ground invasion, the goal of which, as Israel has repeatedly claimed, is to reach the Litani River and the Blue Line and work to establish a buffer zone, the direct goal of which is the return of the displaced to their areas of residence in The North, and these goals can be achieved through the support of Israel's allies, namely America and Britain, in this regional war that appears to have multiple fronts and parties. If Israel is able to establish this buffer zone in southern Lebanon, there will be an entry into a path of negotiations with the Lebanese state that includes the presence of international forces and forces from the Lebanese army, and work to implement Security Council Resolution No. 1701 of 2006, which is concerned with resolving the Israeli-Lebanese conflict.

The multiplicity of fronts in the Ring of Fire and the confrontations with Israel, consisting of the Yemeni front, its launching of missiles and drones towards Israel, and the restrictions on navigation in the Red Sea, in addition to the Iraqi front represented by the militias and factions loyal to Iran, as well as the front on the southern border of Lebanon and the Syrian front, all of these are data that contribute to a basic scenario and possibility, which is that the region is actually entering a new phase of a broad and comprehensive regional war, inevitably.