Dr. Dalal Erekat: Netanyahu may use the killing of detainees as a pretext to escalate his war and delay reaching a deal

Sari Samour: America is obstructing the negotiations, and whoever believes that it is unable to force Israel to reach an agreement is mistaken

Suleiman Basharat: The differences in positions within Israeli society focus on priorities, not the war itself.

Samir Anabtawi: Abu Obeida’s statements are a warning to Israeli society regarding detainees in Gaza to create counter-pressure on Netanyahu

Speculation continues about the chances of reaching a swap deal that would lead to ending the war of extermination that the occupying state is continuing in the Gaza Strip, amid internal and international political complications, especially after the killing of the six Israeli detainees, and hundreds of thousands of Israelis taking to the streets to protest the obstacles placed by their Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an attempt to obstruct any possible agreement.

On both sides of the conflict, Palestinian and Israeli civilians are hoping that the killing of the six Israeli prisoners will speed up negotiations for a swap deal, amid questions about the ability of Israeli society to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conclude the deal, especially after the Israeli Trade Union Federation (Histadrut) joined and called for a general strike day.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts and specialists believe that in light of this escalation, the chances of reaching a peace agreement or a permanent truce seem very slim, as Netanyahu continues to strengthen his positions rejecting any potential deal.

Writers, analysts and specialists pointed out that fears are increasing within Israel following the resistance’s statements that threatened greater escalation against the Israeli detainees, if military operations against the Gaza Strip continue or if attempts are made to reach those detainees.

Reaching a deal and a permanent ceasefire is unlikely.

Dr. Dalal Erekat, Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution at the Arab American University, said: The success or failure of the deal to stop the war on the Gaza Strip will not be greatly affected by the issue of the killing of the six Israeli detainees.

Erekat explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may use this incident as a pretext to justify his escalation of the war on the Gaza Strip, but the disruption of the negotiations is primarily due to Netanyahu’s desire to continue the war and not reach a deal, despite the international consensus on the Palestinians’ right to administer Gaza and the West Bank.

Although she stressed that reaching a permanent deal and a complete ceasefire is unlikely at the present time, Erekat indicated that the most likely scenario is the possibility of putting pressure on Netanyahu as the US elections and UN meetings approach in September, which could lead to a temporary calm without ending the war completely.

Protests expected to continue... and US pressure on Netanyahu

Regarding the impact of the messages exchanged between the resistance and Israel, Erekat said: The statements of Abu Obeida, the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, the message from Hamas regarding the killing of the six detainees, and the Israeli responses by Netanyahu and Israeli leaders, create a state of confusion within Israeli society.

She pointed out that Abu Obeida's message was clear and aimed to refute Netanyahu's narrative, who uses the issue of the killing of prisoners as a means to stall negotiations, which further incites Israeli society towards protests.

Erekat expected the Israeli protests and demonstrations to continue to pressure Netanyahu, in addition to the continued American pressure on him.

Erekat pointed out that US President Joe Biden has made it clear that Netanyahu does not want the negotiations to advance, which may push the US administration to ally with the Israeli opposition or with Netanyahu's potential successor in the near future.

Netanyahu represents a team, not a person

For his part, writer and political analyst Sari Samour said: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team are not seriously seeking to conclude a deal to end the conflict in Gaza.

He explained that Netanyahu relies heavily on the support he receives, and he would not have been able to control the country in this way if he had been working alone, noting that he represents a team and not an individual.

Samour stressed that the negotiations were suspended by an American decision, and that anyone who believes that the United States is unable to force Israel to reach an agreement is mistaken.

Samour explained that if the United States was interested in concluding a deal, it would have the ability to impose it on Israel, but in the event that there is no American intention in this direction, it is unlikely that any agreement will be reached, especially with the weakness of the Israeli opposition in exerting real pressure on the government.

Hamas's demands are all humanitarian and difficult to abandon.

Regarding Hamas, Samour said that there are calls for the movement to make some concessions, but how can Hamas respond to these calls when its demands are limited to basic humanitarian issues, such as withdrawal, the return of the displaced, and reconstruction, which are demands that Hamas cannot abandon.

He added: "Hamas may show flexibility on the issue of deporting prisoners outside Palestine, while concessions on other aspects are considered difficult."

Samour believed that Netanyahu was using the negotiations as a cover to continue the massacres and aggression, stressing that he did not expect a near end to the war except with an effective decision from the United States.

Regarding the statements of Abu Obeida, the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, Samour said that they reflect the expectations that emerged after the Nuseirat incident, pointing out the similarity of this case to the incident of the killing of the Israeli soldier Nachshon Wachsman in 1994.

Samour stressed that Hamas seeks, through these statements, to send a message that military operations aimed at liberating Israeli detainees will end with their deaths.

He pointed out that Israel may witness wider protests to pressure Netanyahu, but he believes that the latter is taking steps that will weaken this movement, and Netanyahu may carry out assassinations against resistance leaders, not necessarily in the Gaza Strip only.

Little chance for success of ceasefire negotiations

In turn, Suleiman Basharat, a writer and political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, said: The chances of success of the negotiations to stop the war on the Gaza Strip are still very slim.

Basharat pointed out that the incident of recovering the bodies of the six Israeli detainees, who were killed a few days before they were found, did not fundamentally affect the general attitude towards the war within Israeli society.

Basharat explained that the Israeli public anger that followed the discovery of the bodies was linked to the emotional dimension of the event, rather than to a change in the Israelis’ position on the war itself.

He pointed out that the difference in viewpoints within Israeli society is still focused on the priorities of the war and not on supporting it in the first place.

He stressed that the war on the Gaza Strip still enjoys great support, including from the opposition and political elites, which strengthens Netanyahu's continuation of his current approach.

Basharat explained that the incident of retrieving the bodies sparked a broader discussion about the war on Gaza and the detainees’ file, and revived this file after it had been almost forgotten, as the prisoners’ families became the only voice demanding an end to the issue of their detention.

Basharat pointed out that the movement of this file may become stronger if additional factors are available, such as the existence of a real American will, increasing pressures on the Israeli army and government, or changes in the positions of other fronts, such as the northern front, the West Bank, or Iran.

3 possible scenarios for the course of negotiations

Basharat presented several possible scenarios for the course of the negotiations: The first, which he considers the most likely to happen, is that the current negotiating path will remain in a state of stagnation, with offers, proposals and amendments being circulated without achieving tangible progress until the US presidential elections next November.

The second scenario, according to Basharat, is the least likely, and is represented by reaching the first stage of the deal, and the intransigence of the occupation and the lack of guarantees from the resistance reduce the chances of this happening. As for the third scenario, it is related to a sudden development on the ground that may impose great pressure on Israel, forcing it to stop the war and withdraw from Gaza.

Basharat explained that all of these scenarios depend largely on field developments, pointing out that the statements of Abu Obeida, the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, may be a serious warning, but Israeli society seems to be heading towards more extremism.

According to Basharat, current indications suggest that Netanyahu may continue to follow the same approach he is currently taking, with no significant changes on the horizon.

Netanyahu does not care about international and local pressures

Samer Anabtawi, a writer and political analyst, believes that the chances of success of the negotiations to end the war on the Gaza Strip have become almost non-existent after the killing of the six Israeli detainees.

Anbatawi pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is putting all obstacles in place to prevent any deal from being concluded, despite international and local pressures, as he seeks to continue occupying the Gaza Strip, and current data does not indicate the possibility of reaching any agreement.

Anbatawi expected that "Netanyahu will continue to evade and buy time until a year has passed since the "Al-Aqsa Flood", leading up to the US presidential elections," noting that Netanyahu is betting on Donald Trump's return to the presidency, which will strengthen his position.

Anbatawi said that the statements of Abu Obeida, the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, carry clear indications that Israel's continued targeting and killing of Palestinians in Gaza means that everyone is targeted and may put the detainees at risk.

Netanyahu dominated the movement and defeated his opponents

Anbatawi considered that these statements by "Abu Obeida" are a warning to the Israeli society, as the families of the detainees become more concerned about the lives of their sons, which creates counter-pressure on Netanyahu.

Regarding the movement within Israeli society, Anabtawi said that Netanyahu was able to control it and overcome his opponents, pointing out that the Israeli Supreme Court stopped the strike of the Histadrut, the Israeli trade union federation. He also said that there is a weakness in the influence of the opposition and its inability to exert real pressure on Netanyahu.

Anbatawi pointed out that Netanyahu was able to convince the Israeli interior that he is the only one capable of protecting the state, which protected him and his government from any pressure that might push him towards concluding an agreement.

Anbatawi pointed out that the internal Israeli movement, even if it continues and expands, will not be able to confront Netanyahu, despite the crises he faces, unless major developments occur that completely change the political path.