Firas Yaghi: The exchange of strikes between Israel and Hezbollah comes within the framework of the rules of engagement in force.
 Sari Samour: Israel is acting with unprecedented stubbornness and one event could blow up the situation and turn it into a comprehensive war
 Samir Anabtawi: Netanyahu is stalling negotiations to gain time and reach the October 7 anniversary and then the US elections
 Suleiman Basharat: There are regional and international factors that affect the round of negotiations, the most important of which is Hezbollah’s response
 Osama Al-Sharif: Netanyahu benefited from Blinken's visit because it gave him legitimacy for his new conditions, which will not be the last
 Dr. Jamal Salama: Cairo negotiations will be more difficult in light of Netanyahu's new conditions, especially Philadelphia and the crossing
 Fadl Tahboub: The gap is wide between the two sides, and the Cairo negotiations only aim to buy time for Israel and America


Unlike the atmosphere that accompanied the previous round in Doha, and the hesitation of Iran, Hezbollah and Ansar Allah in responding to Israel to give a chance for the success of the negotiations and to stop the war of extermination in Gaza, the Cairo round of negotiations comes simultaneously with the attack launched by Hezbollah, yesterday morning, deep inside Israel in response to the targeting of the southern suburb, the assassination of the senior military commander Fouad Shukr and the martyrdom of a number of civilians more than three weeks ago.

While the Israeli Prime Minister was deliberately escalating and committing massacres in the Gaza Strip with every round of negotiations, in order to exert pressure on the Palestinian resistance and Hamas, this equation was reversed this time, such that Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack made the Cairo round of negotiations under fire in favor of the Palestinian resistance, amidst varying expectations about the possibility of its success or failure, in light of Israel’s adherence to its rejectionist positions and the tense security situation in the Gaza Strip and on the northern front.
In separate interviews with “Al Quds”, writers and political analysts believe that the concerned parties are seeking to achieve progress in the issues raised in the negotiations, but the chances of escalation seem greater in light of Israel’s refusal to stop the war and its continuation of its aggressive policies. They point out that the increasing escalation in the north threatens to slide things towards a comprehensive regional confrontation, but with everyone keen to avoid it and maintain a state of control over things.

Negotiations in Cairo are not encouraging

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi said: The ongoing negotiations in Cairo between the concerned parties do not inspire optimism, and their success cannot be relied upon, and they may fail, especially since Israel refuses to withdraw from the "Philadelphi" and "Netzarim" axes, which makes it difficult for Hamas to accept the new Israeli conditions.
Yaghi explained that there is a framework agreement that was signed on July 2nd, and Hamas is now looking for a mechanism to implement this agreement instead of entering into new negotiations, so the possibility of the negotiations failing seems greater than their success under the current circumstances.
Regarding the possible scenarios in the event that the negotiations fail, Yaghi expected that things would remain as they are, as the field would control what would happen in the future.
Yaghi stressed that if the field situation in the Gaza Strip or other arenas develops, new developments may emerge that affect the course of the negotiations.

Israeli interior with the conclusion of a deal

On the other hand, Yaghi pointed out that the Israeli interior is inclined to conclude a deal and stop the war on the Gaza Strip, to enable the Israeli army to prepare to confront other fronts, especially the northern front, but this trend clashes with the desire of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep the state of war ongoing, although he does not seek to expand it unless the United States intervenes and stands directly by Israel.
He touched on the escalation on the northern front, pointing out that the exchange of strikes between Israel and Hezbollah comes within the framework of the rules of engagement in effect between the two parties.
Yaghi explained that Israel targeted the southern suburb and assassinated Hezbollah's Chief of Staff, Fouad Shukr, while it appears that Hezbollah responded by striking sensitive Israeli sites, the details of which are not yet known.
Regarding the impact of the escalation on the negotiations in Cairo, Yaghi said: The escalation may affect the negotiations if the United States wants to calm the situation and prevent the escalation of tension.
However, Yaghi explained that if Israel does not expand its response, the northern front will remain a support front as it was before, which means that the tension will continue based on developments on the ground.
Yaghi stressed the importance of monitoring other fronts, as no reactions have been issued from Yemen or Iran so far, noting that the coming hours and days may bring new developments.

The parties concerned are keen to continue the negotiations.

In turn, writer and political analyst Sari Samour said: The current round of negotiations in Cairo is not decisive as is rumored with every new round of negotiations, pointing to the possibility of negotiations continuing in other rounds, whether in Cairo or in other places.
Sammour explained that each round of negotiations is sometimes described as decisive in order to increase interest or push the parties towards completing a certain deal, but the reality indicates that the negotiation process may continue for a longer period.
He pointed out that despite the possibility of failure of this round, the concerned parties are keen to continue the negotiation process, while escalation remains an option.
Samour addressed the escalation in northern Palestine, noting that Hezbollah's entry into the confrontation line came as part of a support front to stop the aggression on the Gaza Strip.
He pointed out that Hezbollah is ready to stop the escalation if there is real progress in the negotiations, but Israel's refusal to stop the aggression is what keeps the escalation going.
If the current negotiations in Cairo fail, Samour believes that the support front will continue, and with it the escalation, which may lead to an escalation of matters towards a greater confrontation.
He pointed out that the confrontation in the north has turned into something resembling an open war of attrition, which may continue unless a breakthrough occurs or a deal is reached regarding the Gaza Strip.
Regarding the possibility of the escalation sliding into a large-scale war, Samour said: The matter is not settled even for the parties to the conflict themselves.

The situation is not under control and one event could blow things up.

Despite the rumors that things are under control and subject to rules of engagement, Samour believes that this is inaccurate, as one event could explode the situation and turn it into a comprehensive war that includes mutual shelling between Beirut and Tel Aviv.
Samour stressed that the escalation in the north is largely linked to the Gaza front, explaining that if the war on Gaza does not stop, then escalation in the north and even on other fronts will be expected.
He added: "The ongoing Israeli attacks may lead to an escalation of matters, and the coming days will reveal what will happen, but matters are heading towards escalation, whether gradually, slowly or quickly."
Regarding the position of Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Iraqi resistance, Samour said: They are all prepared to stop attacks and responses if the aggression on the Gaza Strip is stopped and a deal is concluded that meets the conditions of the resistance, which include: stopping the aggression, complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction, lifting the siege, and exchanging prisoners.
Samour continued: "The question remains about whether Israel will accept these conditions," noting that Israel is acting with unprecedented stubbornness, which makes negotiated solutions more complicated.

Cairo negotiations are not decisive

As for the writer and political analyst, Samer Anabtawi, he said: The current Cairo negotiations are not decisive, because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still adhering to his rejectionist positions.
According to Anbatawi, Netanyahu continues to reject pressures and is working to circumvent some clauses, such as amendments related to the deployment of the Israeli army in the Philadelphi corridor, without ending security control, which is rejected by the Palestinian resistance and Egypt alike.
He explained that Netanyahu is seeking to gain time to reach the first anniversary of October 7, and then the American elections, which means that he will procrastinate in the negotiations, and may agree under severe pressure to only the first stage, which aims to release the largest number of Israelis held by the resistance, while continuing the aggressive war.
Anbatawi believes that Netanyahu does not only represent himself, but also represents an extremist Israeli system that enjoys support from the extreme right within Israel.
Despite international pressure, Anbatawi said that Netanyahu still has many tools of power, the most important of which is his ability to mobilize the Israeli interior towards the right and extremism, while convincing the Israelis that this is an existential battle.
Anbatawi pointed out that Netanyahu still enjoys strong support from the Likud Party and the Israeli Knesset, in addition to exploiting the contradictions between Republicans and Democrats in the United States, which allows him to continue with his orientations and not want to end the war except on his own terms.

Last chance before escalation

In the event that the negotiations fail, Anbatawi stressed that escalation will prevail, with the possibility that this will be the last chance before escalation at the regional level, especially after the response of the Lebanese Hezbollah, which may be followed by an Iranian response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and then an escalation by the Houthis in Yemen.
Anbatawi pointed out that Netanyahu seeks escalation and to involve the United States of America in this war, which makes the alternative to the absence of a deal escalation at all levels and stages, and in all locations from Gaza to the West Bank, to the north, to Iran, to Iraq and Syria.
He explained that there is an Israeli will to escalate, as Israel sees this as an opportunity to eliminate the Palestinian cause and liquidate the Palestinian presence, which prompts it to escalate the situation in all directions in order to lure the United States into this stage of confrontation.
Anbatawi pointed out that the occupying state was forced to escalate with Hezbollah due to its lack of a green light from the United States, and therefore Israel tried to carry out preemptive strikes to show the international community that it has the upper hand, and to protect itself from the strong response expected at this stage.
Anbatawi pointed out that Hezbollah confirmed that its responses would come in stages, and that the first stage was just the beginning, indicating the possibility of matters escalating in the future.
He expressed his belief that the escalation in the north might worsen, and then Netanyahu might exploit it to pressure not to complete a deal with the Palestinian resistance.
Anbatawi pointed out that the confrontation is still ongoing in the north, but the extent of the escalation and the possibility of it turning into a comprehensive regional war are still unknown, especially since the occupying state is losing the ability to enter more than one front without American support.

The current round of negotiations is different.

For his part, writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat said: The current round of negotiations in Cairo may differ from previous ones for several reasons, although optimism about its success is still limited.
Basharat explained that the current negotiations focus on specific details and are not comprehensive, as they address executive aspects related to the Israeli military and security presence in the Gaza Strip, the Egyptian-Israeli relationship in the "Philadelphi" axis, in addition to the possibility of stopping the war and concluding a deal.
Basharat pointed out that this round, although it may not be final, could lay important foundations to build on in the future.
He pointed out that there are several regional and international factors that affect this round of negotiations, the most important of which is the response of the Lebanese Hezbollah to Israel and the resulting balance between the two parties, as both parties can market what happened as a strengthening of the deterrence equation without there being a clear loser.

The time factor pressing on the Biden administration

According to Basharat, this development may give the negotiating track additional strength, as well as the time factor that is pressuring the administration of US President Joe Biden, which seeks to achieve a political breakthrough not only for electoral interests, but also to preserve Israel's image, status and future.
On the other hand, Basharat believes that the changes in the resistance strategy in the Gaza Strip over the past weeks, which have inflicted heavy losses on the Israeli army, may impose themselves on the negotiations. Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to market these losses as part of the price for maintaining Israel’s security, the depletion of the Israeli army may lead to major security and political repercussions.
Regarding the possible scenarios if the negotiations in Cairo fail, Basharat explained that Israel realizes its inability to open a comprehensive front, citing its dealings with the response of the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the threats from Iran and Yemen. This reflects the limited ability of Israel to wage a war on multiple fronts, especially with the serious consequences that could affect the security system and the future of Israel.

Hezbollah's response strengthens the position of the Palestinian resistance in the negotiations

Basharat believes that the escalation in the north, although it was controlled, is supposed to strengthen the position of the Palestinian resistance in the negotiations. The strike that Hezbollah dealt, even if its details have not been fully revealed, may be part of establishing the deterrence equation between Israel and the axis of resistance. This escalation also sends a clear message that the Gaza front cannot be neutralized from the rest of the fronts.
Basharat added: The continuation of the war and the failure to reach a calm means that things could slide into a comprehensive confrontation, which facts have proven that Israel is unable to deal with. The United States also realizes that sliding into a comprehensive war will not be a solution to the crisis. Accordingly, the escalation in the north may not directly affect the current round of negotiations in Cairo, but it will strengthen the demands of the Palestinian resistance in the upcoming rounds of negotiations.
He continued: "The escalation in the north will not slide into a comprehensive war, as Hezbollah was quick to describe the response to the assassination of Fouad Shukr as a preliminary response, while Israel confirmed that it will not escalate matters further. This indicates that all parties have come to realize that sliding into a comprehensive war is not in their interest, and that what happened aims to establish the rules of engagement and exploit the field to achieve political goals."
However, Basharat pointed out that the field remains the factor that may force the parties to engage in a comprehensive confrontation, despite their unwillingness to do so, in light of the current attempts to control responses and establish rules for a deterrent equation that serves the political interests of each party.

Hamas will not accept Netanyahu's new conditions

Jordanian journalist and political commentator Osama Al-Sharif told “Al Quds”: “The past weeks witnessed decisive rounds, especially when US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and CIA Director Burns were in the region. There was a round in Doha and then in Cairo, and I don’t think things have changed. It is clear that Hamas is determined to stick to what was agreed upon on July 2.”
He explained that "Netanyahu benefited from Blinken's visit, because it gave him legitimacy for his new conditions, which will not be the last conditions regarding what Blinken called the "bridge of agreement", which are Netanyahu's conditions. According to what was leaked, these conditions have completely changed from what they were in Biden's three-stage initiative."
Al-Sharif believes that “Hamas is not in a position to accept these conditions because it would be a defeat for it, because it has fulfilled all of Netanyahu’s conditions, but has not fulfilled its own, especially those related to the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the Philadelphi Corridor, and the Rafah crossing, the return of the displaced to the north, and the entry of aid, which was not mentioned in Blinken’s agreement.”

Netanyahu wants to prolong the war

Al-Sharif pointed out that "Netanyahu wants to extend the war until November, the date of the US elections, and is awaiting the outcome. Each incident will be discussed," noting that during this period he is continuing to destroy what remains of the Gaza Strip, even if there is no clear military goal such as destroying Hamas. However, he is causing great harm to the Palestinian people in Gaza, through killing and destroying all facilities, besieging two million people in an area of about 35 square kilometers, and perhaps forcing them to emigrate, as he hopes, and a permanent military presence in Gaza, and extending the life of the coalition amidst Netanyahu's rising popularity in Israel.
According to Al-Sharif, “The hostage deal will not happen in the meantime, and I believe that there are many hostages alive, and perhaps Netanyahu realizes this, and therefore he aims to prolong the war, and the American presence could become permanent in the Eastern Mediterranean to deter Iran. Today we saw Hezbollah carry out its threat, and there is ambiguity about how this operation was carried out, whether there was a preemptive Israeli strike or not. Now the ball is in Tehran’s court, will it carry out its response to the assassination of Haniyeh or will it postpone it, and therefore I do not believe that there is a major change regarding the round of negotiations in Cairo.”

Palestinians have no choice but to continue resistance

Dr. Gamal Salama, Professor of Political Science at Suez Canal University, told “Al Quds” that he does not count on the round of negotiations in Cairo, noting that they will be more difficult, especially in light of Netanyahu’s new conditions, including the issue of the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi Corridor.
He stressed that the American mediator is more biased towards Israel, as he is presenting new proposals on the Biden plan, so what is new that the current round of negotiations will bring? I think there is nothing new in it.
Salama said: "If the round of negotiations fails, the Palestinians have no choice but to continue their resistance against the Israeli occupation, but it will be at the expense of the blood of the Palestinian people who are being subjected to a war of extermination in the Gaza Strip, and whose lives have turned into hell, regardless of all the slogans in light of the complicity and silence of the international community, and the support of the American government and European governments for the racist Israeli occupation."

Hezbollah attack has no impact on negotiations

Salama added: "The impact of Hezbollah's launching of rockets yesterday on the round of negotiations in Cairo is, in my opinion, limited, since the party said that it was the first stage of the response to the assassination of Fouad Shukr, and we must know the extent of the impact of the operation, whether it was strong or limited."
He continued: Israel has repeatedly threatened that if Hezbollah's response is strong, the response will be similar to Beirut and not to the southern suburb.
Salama ruled out the possibility of the region sliding into a large-scale war. He said: "I rule that out due to the presence of American warships, and Iran's fear of responding to Haniyeh's assassination, especially since three weeks have passed since the assassination, and there has been no response."

Conspiracy negotiations to implement the plan to kill Palestinians

As for the Jerusalemite political analyst Fadl Tahboub, he told “Al Quds”: “The negotiations in Cairo are useless, and their goal is to buy time for Israel and America in an attempt to enable Netanyahu to kill the Palestinians.”
"It is clear that these negotiations are conspiratorial in order to implement a plan to kill Palestinians. Netanyahu is not interested in the Israeli prisoners, nor in a ceasefire, nor in withdrawing from the Gaza Strip," he added, noting that "the Palestinians are not interested in a prisoner exchange or a deal except by ending the aggression on the Gaza Strip and Israel's withdrawal from it. There is a wide gap in the positions of the two sides, so it is difficult to advance in the negotiations."
Tahboub believed that "if the negotiations fail, the fighting will continue, and this will depend on the resistance from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and perhaps from Iran. When the battle expands, Israel will be in an economic and security crisis, and then things may change."
He concluded by saying: "As long as the balance of power is like this until now, a deal cannot be reached."