Israeli analysts ruled out that the Israeli raids on Lebanon, Sunday morning, which were described as a "preemptive attack", in parallel with a relatively large-scale attack with missiles and drones by Hezbollah, had prevented a large-scale regional war and that Hezbollah is not planning another surprise soon.

Ofer Shelah, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said in a post on the institute’s website that “the successful IDF operation prevented Hezbollah from firing more rockets at northern Israel and targeting selected targets in the center of the country, but that will not change the situation, in which we are approaching a broad regional war every day, even if all parties do not see its benefit.”

"Hezbollah will continue to fire" as long as the war on Gaza continues, added Shelah, a former chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. "Anyone who supports a comprehensive war initiated by Israel must prove that it is possible to remove the threat to the north, or to improve our position in a future settlement. Past experience calls into question this ability."

Shelah stressed that "the real way to return the residents of the north to their homes is the settlement, which comes in the wake of the cessation of fighting in Gaza in its current form. This is the position of the Israeli security apparatus, which does not say it clearly but rather expresses its approval of the return of the kidnapped."

According to Shelah, “Even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to soften the positions supported by the security establishment, the current situation is good for Yahya Sinwar. A war between Israel and Hezbollah brings the region closer to a comprehensive war, which is his great dream. This certainly does not increase his desire for an agreement, which would be a relatively ‘small victory’ compared to the strategic achievement in whose name he initiated the October 7 attack.”

"Israel's operations have created a situation in which the Iranians are conducting a strategic dialogue with the United States over our heads. The Americans only want to keep Iran out of an open confrontation, because in doing so the US administration will relieve itself of the dilemma of what to do. A clash between Israel and Hezbollah only worries them if it leads to Iran entering a full-scale conflagration of the situation," he continued.

He added, "Thus, the Iranians are exacting a price from the United States for something they saw no interest in achieving, namely a direct attack on Israel. The absence of a comprehensive strategy means that the tactical-operational achievement does not improve our overall situation."

For his part, Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz, saw Hezbollah’s statement about “the completion of the first phase” of its response to the assassination of military leader Fouad Shukr as indicating the end of the most dangerous part of the periodic escalation between the party and Israel, and that this is supported by the Israeli Home Front Command’s statement about lifting restrictions on the northern regions and Tel Aviv.

"This does not guarantee that Hezbollah is not preparing other surprises soon," Harel added. "Also, by thwarting the attack, there is no solution to the impossible situation in which the residents of the northern border have been for ten and a half months."

He added that Iran and Hezbollah do not want a large-scale regional war, and that "it has become clear once again that when there is a possibility for Iran and Hezbollah to wage a comprehensive war against Israel, and it may expose them to increased military friction with the United States as well, they prefer to take a step back."

According to Harel, Israel had been aware of Hezbollah's offensive plan for some time, "and Hezbollah may have feared an all-out war, but it was prepared to expand the limits of the risk. The goal was to target heavily the Israeli army bases in the north of the country, along with precise targeting of the Mossad headquarters and the Unit 8200 base in northern Tel Aviv."