The Washington Post reported that the United States insists that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is imminent, but diplomats are skeptical.

Officials involved in the Gaza cease-fire talks disagree on many issues, but they are beginning to find common ground on at least one position: The United States, a major player in the negotiations, has been overstating how close the warring parties are to reaching an agreement.

Whether to prevent an Iranian attack on Israel, to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war, or to boast about progress made at the Democratic National Convention, U.S. officials have insisted in recent weeks that the negotiations are making progress, while ignoring the deep differences between Israel and Hamas, officials familiar with the matter say.

This week, the United States publicly announced that Israel had agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire, a move that surprised Israeli negotiators who have yet to resolve a dispute over whether the Israeli military could remain along the Egypt-Gaza border, a major obstacle to an agreement. The announcement angered Hamas, which assumed the statement meant the United States had capitulated to Israel’s demands, making it harder for mediators to persuade the group to sign on to the proposal.

For months, the United States has sought a deal that would temporarily halt the fighting in the Gaza Strip and release Israeli captives there. It has relied on Egypt and Qatar to mediate with Hamas, and has described the latest negotiations as the last, best chance for an agreement.

Questions about U.S. public optimism about the talks were first raised after a White House call with reporters, including the Jerusalem correspondent, on Aug. 16 when a senior administration official said negotiators would hold a high-level meeting in the coming days to wrap up work on a U.S.-sponsored ceasefire plan that closed “almost all the remaining gaps that were under discussion.”

Then came US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel this week, who emerged from an hours-long meeting with Netanyahu on Monday claiming that the Israeli leader had agreed to the US proposal and that implementation could begin once Hamas agreed.

The proposal includes a six-week ceasefire, the release of dozens of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and an Israeli troop withdrawal from major population centers in Gaza. But shortly after Blinken left, Netanyahu continued to make public statements contradicting the proposal and crossing red lines set by Hamas and mediation partner Egypt.

Specifically, Netanyahu has said he will not give up Israel’s military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow buffer zone created by Israel and Egypt to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza from the Sinai Peninsula. Hamas and Cairo say Israel must withdraw from the area.

"I am not prepared to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor in the face of internal and external pressures. If we leave there, we will be subjected to enormous political pressure that will prevent us from returning there - but there will be no such pressure if we stay there," Netanyahu said at a meeting on Tuesday, according to the newspaper.

Asked about the discrepancy, Blinken said he “can’t speak” to Netanyahu’s public comments. “I can only speak to what I heard directly from him,” Blinken said, noting that the prime minister had signed off on a “detailed plan” that included a “very clear timeline and locations for the withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza.

A person familiar with the meeting in Israel, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to freely discuss sensitive diplomacy, said Blinken came away convinced that Netanyahu was committed to the proposal.

The person said it was clear at the meeting that the prime minister was under pressure to secure the release of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza, and was concerned about an imminent attack by Iran or Hezbollah if the talks failed. He told Blinken that none of those priorities could be addressed without a ceasefire.

The state news agency reported that Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon on Friday killed at least eight people, including a child and several Hezbollah fighters. Hezbollah, which has been exchanging fire almost daily with the Israeli military for months, has also fired a barrage of rockets into Israel. Some Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials say they do not share Blinken’s confidence in Netanyahu and suspect the prime minister is intent on continuing the war — a view shared by prominent analysts.

“Netanyahu has been very clear for months that he has no interest in implementing the full, three-phase ceasefire that would actually end the war,” Frank Lowenstein, who was a negotiator on Israeli-Palestinian affairs during the Obama administration, told the newspaper. “Despite what he told Secretary Blinken, it is increasingly clear that he does not really want a temporary ceasefire and the release of the hostages.”

The war on Gaza began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led fighters stormed the Gaza Envelope area, killing about 1,200 people, including 311 soldiers (according to official Israeli sources) and taking about 250 others hostage. Israel invaded Gaza, in a military campaign that killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, most of them children, women and children. Since then, most of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents have been displaced, aid agencies have warned of famine, and infectious diseases, including polio, have spread, prompting the United Nations to call for an urgent ceasefire so that vaccination campaigns can begin.

Top officials in the talks are expected to meet in Cairo in the coming days to try to bridge the gap, bringing together CIA Director William Burns; David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency; Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel; and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. The talks in Cairo on Friday included U.S., Israeli and Egyptian officials, but progress has been modest, according to diplomats familiar with the matter. Israel has proposed eight watchtowers along the Philadelphi Corridor, the United States has proposed two, and Egypt has “absolutely” rejected any, said a former Egyptian official familiar with the talks. Diplomats said Egypt is likely to stick to its position against an unlimited Israeli presence along the border.

“Egypt will never agree” to any Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, said a former Egyptian official familiar with the talks. “When Sisi decides something, he never changes it,” said the official, who spoke on behalf of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

While the Biden administration continues to project confidence in the talks, it is working hard behind the scenes to try to push the deal forward. President Joe Biden spoke on Friday with the leaders of Egypt and Qatar “to discuss diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire and release the hostages,” the White House said in a statement.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby also said Friday it was “not accurate” that the talks were “on the verge of collapse.” But he acknowledged that the United States still needs “both sides to come together and work toward implementation.”

Within the Israeli government, a long-running rift between Netanyahu and the military and security chiefs over the feasibility of a ceasefire has become more public and violent. But in Israel, a solution is still needed. Military leaders have argued for weeks that their attacks on Hamas have largely destroyed the group’s ability as an organized force, and that while Hamas fighters will continue to pose a threat to the insurgents, there is no compelling military reason to delay an agreement.

Members of Israel’s negotiating team have privately said the prime minister has obstructed their ability to make meaningful offers during the last several rounds of talks, according to reports in Israeli media. Netanyahu has complained that negotiators, including his intelligence chief, are too willing to compromise, and recently told his political allies that they are “showing weakness,” according to Israel’s Channel 12.

But Netanyahu is also under pressure from his key right-wing allies, some of whom have threatened to bring down his government if he suspends the Gaza war too soon.

While his negotiating positions are unpopular, Netanyahu’s overall political standing is actually improving. In recent months, his poll numbers—which had been dented by public anger over the October 7 attacks—have begun to rise.

“Netanyahu is playing for time — and playing with the United States,” said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert who has advised Republican and Democratic administrations. After the United States included new Israeli demands in its latest proposal, Hamas said that was no longer acceptable in a statement accusing the administration of “blind bias” toward Israel. “The Biden administration is stuck in a negotiating dead end with no apparent way out,” Miller said.