Dr. Raed Abu Badawiya: Negotiations are nothing but an American and Israeli tactic to reach the first stage and then resume the war
 Dr. Ashraf Badr: There is an integration of roles between Washington and Tel Aviv to extract the resistance’s approval of specific conditions
 Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad: America and Israel have made a decision to force the Palestinians to surrender and impose a settlement by force
 Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: Israel uses negotiations as an umbrella to cover its ongoing crimes in order to restore deterrence
 Dr. Qusay Hamed: Netanyahu does not see himself forced to reach a comprehensive agreement with Hamas and believes that he is capable of managing his multiple battles
 Adnan Al-Sabah: The current phase will witness an escalation in pressure on Hamas and the axis of resistance to reach a temporary truce


The ongoing negotiations over a possible exchange deal with Hamas reveal deliberate Israeli-American tactics aimed at achieving specific goals by completing the first phase of the desired deal, without committing to a final ceasefire, which opens the door to resuming the conflict at any moment.

In separate interviews with Al-Quds.com and Al-Quds.com, writers and political analysts said that the most important Israeli strategy is to try to impose security control over the Gaza Strip, with the aim of tightening the military grip on the Strip, while using military pressure and massacres as a means to force the Palestinian factions to accept the Israeli conditions.

Writers and political analysts explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to evade achieving his goals without giving US President Joe Biden a political achievement that might affect the upcoming US elections in favor of the Democratic Party. Rather, he will seek to make this an achievement for Donald Trump, who is waiting for him to come to power.

The obstacle of the absence of guarantees to stop the war

Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Arab American University, said: The United States and Israel agree on a common goal for the current negotiations, which is to reach the first stage of the deal, without committing to a final ceasefire, with the aim of achieving military and security plans.

Abu Badawiya believes that these negotiations are nothing but an American and Israeli tactic to reach the first stage, and then resume the war on the Gaza Strip.

He pointed out that any deal that is reached will face the obstacle of the absence of guarantees for a permanent ceasefire, as Israel is exploiting the negotiations to achieve its primary goal, which is security control over the Gaza Strip, without currently seeking civilian control, at least in the short term.

Netanyahu, according to Abu Badawiya, aims to transform the Gaza Strip into a situation similar to the West Bank, and this explains his strategy of clinging to security control and his evasion in reaching a deal.

3 stages of the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip

Abu Badawiya reviewed the stages of the Israeli military attack on the Gaza Strip, which began more than ten months ago, and which are divided into three stages: the first stage relates to entering the Gaza Strip at any cost, followed by the second stage, which includes storming densely populated residential areas, while the third stage relates to achieving precise objectives by committing massacres with the aim of pressuring Hamas in negotiations, without providing any guarantees that the military aggression will not continue.

He said: Netanyahu is interested in negotiations, but on his own terms, as he seeks to force Hamas to accept the first stage of the deal, which includes the release of Israeli detainees, without addressing the following stages.

Abu Badawiya believed that the current US administration is weaker due to the approaching presidential elections, but it remains in agreement with Israel on the issue of security dealings with Hamas.

Expected scenarios

He added: When discussing the expected scenarios for the future of the deal, Israel is striving with all its might to achieve the first stage of the deal, using massacres as a means of pressuring Hamas to accept this matter, but Hamas may refuse this. As for the second possible scenario, it is Hamas accepting the release of a limited number of Israeli detainees, so that they do not constitute a strong pressure card against the movement.

Abu Badawiya pointed out that the prisoners held by Hamas represent a real pressure card in the movement's hands, and losing this card would be tantamount to its voluntary surrender to the gallows.

He added: Netanyahu will not change his goals in the war on Gaza, as he agrees with his government, Israeli society, and even the opposition, on ending the so-called "Hamas threat," but the disagreement between them lies in the timing of accepting the deal related to the release of Israeli prisoners, and continuing the war to achieve the ultimate goal of ending Hamas.

Netanyahu doesn't want to give Biden a chance to achieve a political achievement

For his part, writer and political analyst Dr. Ashraf Badr said: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may adopt a strategy of evasion regarding the issue of a potential deal with the Palestinians, as he is not interested in giving US President Joe Biden the opportunity to achieve a political achievement, and instead is waiting for Donald Trump to come to power again, as he is betting on Trump winning the upcoming elections, and because completing the deal during Biden’s era means that Biden will give his deputy Kamala Harris a strong push in the political future, which is not what Netanyahu wants.

On the other hand, Badr said that Biden is dealing with Netanyahu with excessive flexibility regarding the issue of concluding the deal, as he fears provoking the anger of the Zionist lobby against him during the presidential election period, which may negatively affect Harris's chances in the political future.

Badr pointed out that the massacres committed by the Israeli occupation at the present time are primarily aimed at exerting military pressure on the Palestinian factions during the negotiations, while the United States continues to exert pressure through diplomatic channels.

Badr believed that this reflects the integration of roles between Washington and Tel Aviv with the aim of extracting the Palestinian resistance's approval of specific conditions.

Netanyahu announces he has no intention of withdrawing from Netzarim and Rafah crossing

Badr referred to Netanyahu's statements in his meetings with the families of Israeli prisoners, where he confirmed that he would not withdraw from the "Netzarim" axis or the Rafah crossing.

Badr expressed his belief that the negotiations may reach a dead end, which means that they may be frozen until a major development occurs on the ground, or even new elections are held in the United States, without ruling out that Trump may seek to end the war to satisfy voters.

He pointed to another scenario, which is the possibility of a military escalation by Hezbollah and Iran in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr, which could lead to a severe round of conflict in the region, and may push the United States and other international parties to intervene to calm the situation and conclude a new deal.

He considered that Netanyahu seeks to thwart any proposals for the deal under the pretext of the necessity of remaining in the Netzarim axis to protect Israel's security, despite the opposition of the army and security levels to this decision, pointing out that former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had the same pretexts, but was forced to withdraw in the end.

As for remaining at the Rafah crossing, Badr pointed out that there has been an agreement governing this crossing since 2005, and therefore there may be a need for a new agreement with Egypt since the previous agreement stipulated an Israeli withdrawal and the presence of Egyptian and Palestinian forces.

Netanyahu opposes deal that could lead to tactical loss and collapse of his government

Writer and political analyst Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is evasive for several reasons, most notably his opposition to a deal that would lead to a tactical loss and the collapse of his government, which could lead to his trial and new elections. Netanyahu also fears that Israel will suffer a strategic defeat at the hands of the axis of resistance.

He said: Netanyahu seeks to avoid presenting this deal as a gift to the Democratic Party in the United States and Vice President Kamala Harris, preferring to save this achievement for Donald Trump.

Awad believes that Netanyahu is at his best, having defeated his political opponents and achieved great accomplishments, including getting what he wants from the United States. Hence, Netanyahu avoids making any deal with Hamas, believing that more military and political pressure on the movement will lead to its complete surrender rather than entering into negotiations with it.

Biden doesn't want to upset powerful lobbies for Harris

On the other hand, Awad described US President Joe Biden's position as lax regarding the proposed deal, as Biden seems unwilling to exert significant pressure on Israel, for fear that this would anger powerful lobbies in the United States and lose support for Harris.

“The Biden administration does not want to wage a regional war with the presidential elections approaching, which makes it a weak administration unable to confront Netanyahu or pressure him effectively,” Awad said. “Instead, the US administration is focusing on managing the conflict with the aim of recruiting the region to Israel’s advantage and forcing Hamas to surrender.”

He pointed out that Israel insists in its negotiations that Hamas is defeated and Israel is victorious, which leads it to consider that any initiative must be carried out under fire, believing that this is the way to force the resistance to submit. Awad notes the increase in massacres during the negotiation periods, which confirms this strategy.

He added: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's ninth visit to the region was full of threats, as he warned the Palestinians that rejecting the deal would lead to thirst and starvation. Blinken also called on mediators to exert pressure on Hamas, while giving Israel the green light to increase this pressure. Therefore, Awad described this visit as not for a solution, but for threats.

Awad believes that the United States and Israel have made a decision to end the war by forcing the Palestinians to surrender, dismantling Palestinian society, and imposing a settlement by force.

He added: This American decision aims to break the will of the Palestinian people instead of negotiating with them.

Netanyahu meets with families of Israeli prisoners

In turn, writer and political analyst Hani Abu Al-Sabaa said: The statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his meeting with the families of prisoners show a clear position of his rejection of concluding any exchange deal with the Palestinian factions, indicating that the Israeli army will not withdraw from the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that these statements come at a time when there are increasing indications that Netanyahu has no real intention of reaching an agreement, as he repeatedly seeks to thwart international efforts seeking to conclude a prisoner exchange deal.

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed out that these developments come in light of the decline in American pressure on Israel to move forward with concluding the deal, despite the unprecedented political and military support that Israel receives from the United States.

According to Abu Al-Sabaa, this support was represented in direct statements from American leaders, the most recent of whom was Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who explicitly declared that the United States would defend its ally Israel in the face of any potential response from Iran or its proxies. In addition, this support reinforces the United States’ deployment of more than 30,000 troops to its bases in the Middle East, indicating an intensive military readiness to protect Israeli interests in the region.

Israeli accusations against Netanyahu of obstructing the deal

He said: In light of this support, it seems that the current negotiations aim to give Israel more time to carry out its military operations in Gaza, exploiting the political movement and talk of a prisoner exchange deal as an umbrella to cover its ongoing crimes against civilians. It also seems that Israel is seeking, through these crimes, to restore the deterrent force that received a severe blow during the events of October 7.

Abu Al-Sabaa referred to the statements of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, in which he indicated that Netanyahu is the one obstructing the deal, as well as the statements of former Knesset member Gadi Eisenkot, who confirmed that Netanyahu was the only obstacle to concluding the deal. These statements indicate that the failure to move forward towards a prisoner exchange agreement is primarily due to Netanyahu’s desire to break the resistance in Gaza and force it to surrender, despite his awareness of the difficulty of achieving this goal. This is confirmed by the statements of Israeli military leaders who acknowledge that deciding the battle in Israel’s favor is an illusion, and that the return of the prisoners alive without an agreement is impossible.

long war of attrition

Abu Al-Sabaa added: "In light of these facts, it seems that the region is heading towards a long war of attrition that will witness the Israeli army committing more crimes against the Palestinian people, while the Palestinian resistance will continue to confront the occupation by targeting its soldiers and officers and damaging its military vehicles."

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed to the growing Western fears of a wider escalation in the region, as the United States and its allies seek to reduce tensions, which will lead to more statements giving the impression that there is hope for reaching an agreement, in addition to shuttle diplomacy aimed at calming the situation.

Abu Al-Sabaa said that given the United States' preoccupation with the upcoming presidential elections, Washington seeks to avoid the region sliding into a comprehensive regional war, a war that is being prepared by all parties to the conflict.

Netanyahu is playing for time
For his part, Dr. Qusay Hamed, a professor of political science at Al-Quds Open University, said that Netanyahu believes in the "iron wall" theory in negotiations with Hamas, which is based on four basic pillars, the most important of which is "killing the hope" among Palestinians of the possibility of defeating Israel (which they dreamed of during the Al-Aqsa Flood) and achieving absolute victory over their enemies, which would enable him to negotiate with Hamas on the basis of negotiations between the victor (Israel) and the defeated (Hamas), and thus force it to accept his conditions.

Hamed explained that Netanyahu does not see himself currently compelled to reach a comprehensive agreement with Hamas, and finds himself managing his international, military and local battles for more than ten months with a high degree of maneuvering, and therefore it seems difficult to imagine other options before him, stressing that his primary goal is to conclude a prisoner exchange deal, not to end the war.

Hamed pointed out that Netanyahu's management of the war is evident in escalating pressure on Hamas by targeting civilians and committing massacres on a daily basis, with the aim of inflicting the greatest possible losses among Palestinians to pressure Hamas.

Netanyahu's Strategy vs. Hamas's Strategy

Hamed considered that this strategy is not only to defeat Hamas, but also to change the demographic reality in Gaza and push the Palestinians to leave the Strip, whether through military pressure or by making Gaza an unlivable place full of diseases and poor living conditions.

In contrast, Hamed pointed out that Hamas seeks to end the war completely, including: ending the fighting, concluding the deal, the return of the displaced, and the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which creates a large gap between the two negotiating parties.

Hamed believes that Netanyahu seeks to continue the war even after reaching any agreement with Hamas, stressing that the "temporary" cessation of fighting, for him, aims to rebuild the Israeli army and prepare for other rounds of fighting in Gaza and on other fronts.

He said: "Netanyahu is still adhering to his goals," referring to his attempts to impose a new reality regarding the borders, crossings, and buffer zone, and the possibility of Israel continuing to carry out military operations inside the Strip.

Regarding Biden's role, Hamed said that the US president has begun to lose his influence on decision-making as he approaches the end of his term, and therefore he is not putting much pressure on Netanyahu for fear of affecting the position of the Democratic Party in the upcoming elections. Despite the slight improvement in the Democratic Party's chances after Kamala Harris' nomination, fears still exist of losing the electoral battle in favor of Trump's victory, so the United States continues to pressure Hamas to make concessions and to a lesser extent Israel.

Regarding the future of the negotiations, Hamed said that he was not optimistic about the possibility of the parties reaching an agreement, pointing out that there was a large gap in the demands between the two sides.

Netanyahu awaits Trump's return
Hamed considered that Netanyahu is mainly seeking to gain time, and is anticipating a change in the US administration with the return of Trump, who will be a strong supporter of Israel and help Netanyahu achieve his goals in Gaza.

Hamed proposed four scenarios related to the negotiations and their future in the next stage: the first is reaching an agreement, which he rules out at the present time, the second is Hamas withdrawing from the negotiations due to Israel’s reneging on previous understandings, and the third scenario is related to the escalation of the confrontation on the Hezbollah and Iranian fronts and the increase in tensions in the region, pushing the international community to intervene to pressure to end the war, and this scenario Hamed sees as the most likely to happen, which may link ending the confrontation with Hezbollah and Iran (and its arms in the region) to stopping the aggression on Gaza.

Hamed believes that the hesitation adopted by Hezbollah and Iran after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr was aimed at giving a chance for a ceasefire and ending the aggression on Gaza, but with the continued Israeli intransigence in the negotiations, and indications that Hamas will not return to the negotiations in light of the ongoing Israeli evasion, this could be interpreted as signals to Hezbollah that there is no point in continuing to hesitate, which could lead to a response and escalation.

The fourth scenario, according to Hamed, is that Hamas will return to carrying out bombing operations, especially after it claimed responsibility for the recent bombing attempt in Tel Aviv, which could lead to an increase in the Israeli attack on the West Bank.

Netanyahu is evasive to make the world believe that he has eliminated Hamas
As for the writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah, he said: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is relying on a policy of evasion in the ongoing negotiations, as he aims to exit Gaza in a way that appears to be a victory, to announce to the world his success in eliminating the Hamas movement, even though he did not achieve all of his desired goals.”

Al-Sabah pointed out that this approach coincides with the laxity of the administration of US President Joe Biden, which finds itself unable to exert significant pressure on Israel due to the influence of the Zionist lobby within the United States, in addition to the electoral competition between the Democratic and Republican parties in the upcoming US presidential elections to protect Israel's security.

Al-Sabah explained that the United States still sees Israel as a vital tool for protecting its interests in the Middle East, and it seeks to protect it as it represents the line of defense for its interests in the region.

October 7th Anniversary
Al-Sabah expected that the next stage would witness an escalation in pressure on Hamas and the resistance axis, with the aim of reaching a temporary truce before the US elections, noting that failure to achieve military objectives would lead to a renewal of the war, but not necessarily in Gaza only, but could extend to Lebanon and the West Bank.

Al-Sabah pointed out that Israel will try to prevent the celebration of the first anniversary of the October 7 events to be a Palestinian victory, and Netanyahu wants to exert greater pressure, but he believes that the success or failure of this plan depends largely on the ability of the axis of resistance to withstand and thwart the plans of Israel and the United States of America in the region.