How can we read Netanyahu's intentions?

When Israel assassinated Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, just one day after assassinating senior Hezbollah official Fouad Shukr, I read from some analysts on news sites and commentators on social media that the aim of this operation was to provide Netanyahu with the opportunity to come down from the tree and declare “victory” in the war and end it in order to get out of the Gaza quagmire in which he was entangled.

To be honest, I was surprised by this argument, as the assassinations of Shukr and then Haniyeh clearly indicate the exact opposite, that is, Netanyahu does not intend to stop the war but rather expand it and make it a completely open war. There are several pieces of evidence that prove this, in addition to several reasons that can be inferred when analyzing his behavior.

We must be very honest with ourselves at this critical time. The news that follows the developments in the work to reach a deal to end the war in exchange for a prisoner exchange is following a mirage that has no reality. Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of reaching a deal at all. Rather, his goal is to expand the scope of the war to become an open regional war.

This is a fact as clear as the sun, and many of our nation’s sons do not want to acknowledge it, and instead insist on clinging to the hope that the pressures of the major powers will succeed in completing the deal, or that he will submit to the pressures of the interior, which rejects expanding the war and demands a swap deal as soon as possible, while the evidence of Netanyahu’s desire to escape forward by expanding the scope of the war has become more than can be counted or enumerated.

Perhaps the most recent of these was his response to the Qatari-Egyptian-American tripartite statement about resuming negotiations to stop the war, by committing the massacre at the “Al-Tabi’in” school in the Al-Daraj neighborhood in Gaza, which claimed the lives of more than a hundred civilians, while performing the dawn prayer. Netanyahu’s pattern of behavior has become clear, as whenever there is talk in the corridors of politics about stopping the war or starting negotiations, he resorts to killing more civilians in more heinous ways each time.

The truth that we should start from today in dealing with Benjamin Netanyahu’s personality in brief is that he wants war and nothing else, and he does not feel any real internal pressure in this context, because his enemies today, although they are more numerous, are not the kind that would turn his opposition into a real clash in the street, which makes them relatively weaker than the right wing that supports Netanyahu and is prepared to burn the earth literally, not metaphorically, in order to implement his agenda.

As for the United States of America, the Biden administration, after announcing his withdrawal from the electoral race, has become less influential in Netanyahu’s decisions than ever before. Biden’s days in the presidency are numbered, and the options are open regarding choosing the next president, whether it is Trump, Netanyahu’s preferred candidate, or Kamala Harris, whom he does not prefer.

This strike against Iran - before it was against Hamas - by assassinating an official of the stature of Ismail Haniyeh on its soil and during the occasion of its new president assuming his position, cannot be placed in the category of cooling the Gaza front or searching for an imaginary victory through which a ceasefire can be declared, simply because the size and method of the strike were designed in a way that Iran cannot bear, unless it wants to appear as surrendering to Israel.

Therefore, it must invite an Iranian response, even if that is not its preference, meaning that Netanyahu has forced Iran to respond in a strong and harmful way to Israel, which will subsequently give him the opportunity to respond to the response, which could roll things towards a rapid escalation.

The same can be said about the blow that was dealt to Hezbollah by assassinating a prominent figure in it, as it pushes it to abandon the state of military support, and requires it to enter the battle in one way or another and on a large scale. This is what the party’s Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, referred to in his speech after the assassination incident.

I do not mean to say here that Netanyahu necessarily set a trap for Iran and Hezbollah, but I say that he decided to go as far as possible in this war, and put Iran and Hezbollah in a position where they can only respond, and he is betting that Israel will be able to withstand this response, and then respond to it again, in a scenario that is consistent with his intention to expand the battle while remaining in control of it.

The truth is that the secret behind this trend is the US presidential elections; Netanyahu began these crazy moves as soon as he returned from the United States, and after several meetings, the last and most prominent of which was his long meeting with his preferred candidate, Donald Trump.

I do not rule out that Netanyahu wants to achieve this controlled expansion until next November, in order to drag the Biden administration - against its will - into a confrontation with Iran. This is evidenced by the US deployment of warships in the Red and Mediterranean seas, and its announcement that it will defend Israel against any Iranian response to the assassination of Haniyeh.

According to this perception, involving the current US administration in this war on any level, no matter how small, could weaken it and increase Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming elections. If Trump wins, he will complete the plan and perhaps achieve Netanyahu’s old dream of striking Iran itself, or having the United States enter into a direct confrontation with it in which there is no greater victor than Israel.

It seems that the Biden administration understood this trend, and therefore resorted to trying to cool the fronts, and mitigate the Iranian response in any way, without harming its image as the strongest protector and ally of Israel.

Assuming Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, this means that the current Biden administration’s policy will continue against Netanyahu’s will. However, a Harris victory in November will give Netanyahu a window of time to get out of his predicament during the two full months between the US elections in November and the new president taking office in January of next year. In other words, Netanyahu is the winner in both cases, despite the risk of his adventure and the possibility of its results turning against him, although a Trump victory would mean a lot to him.

In addition, Netanyahu's attempt to replace the leadership of the army and the leadership of the Shin Bet in particular with leadership close to him confirms what we have said about his desire to expand the conflict and open it wide, not cool it down. The Shin Bet has always been the most rational and strategically intelligent in dealing with the reality inside the Palestinians, whether in Jerusalem, inside the Green Line, or even the West Bank.

He is the one who curbed Netanyahu on more than one occasion so that the situation in the Palestinian territories would not descend into a third intifada, as happened in 2017, in the Bab al-Asbat uprising in Jerusalem. Therefore, neutralizing this apparatus opens the way for Netanyahu to move more freely.

Accordingly, we should expect Netanyahu's supporters and allies to seek to heat up the Jerusalem and West Bank front, despite the danger of doing so, especially since we are preparing for a typically violent season in Jerusalem around the so-called "Temple Day" on August 13, which this year comes at the height of the drumbeat of war in the region.

In preparation for this occasion, the religious Zionist movement and its extremist groups are preparing for massive marches around the walls of Jerusalem and inside the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque. If these groups are able to disrupt the sensitive area in a way that does not get things out of Israeli control, this will allow Netanyahu to expand the scope of the clash and gain more support among the poles of the extreme right, which will strengthen his position in the face of his enemies at home.

All of this data indicates - without a doubt - that Netanyahu does not want to stop this war, but rather wants to expand it and directly implicate the United States with him. Some analysts who demand ignoring these Israeli escalations may think that confronting this trend should be done by ignoring Netanyahu's provocations or "not being dragged" into responding to him in a manner commensurate with the extent of the attacks he is carrying out with premeditation.

But this approach is in fact neither realistic nor sound, because it tempts Netanyahu to exert more pressure and move quickly forward to turn the equations in the region, and move towards resolving the deterrence equation in Israel’s favor.

This leads us to one logical conclusion: Netanyahu has only one solution, which is to force him to stop the war through developments on the ground, whether on the Gaza front, the Jerusalem front, the West Bank and the interior, or the northern front, and not by relying on diplomatic pressure from any party.

From Al Jazeera