Firas Yaghi: If the situation explodes as a whole, neither America nor Israel will be able to impose their will on the region.

Samer Anabtawi: The assassinations came after Netanyahu received American support against the "enemies"

Alif Sabbagh: Possible coordination between Israel and America and an attempt to sow discord between the resistance and Tehran

Sari Samour: The axis of resistance is facing a major test to take deterrent steps, otherwise Israel may become more daring

A comprehensive or regional war was not an expected or possible option ten months ago as it is now, in light of the unprecedented Israeli escalation that reached its peak in the assassination carried out by the occupying state in the heart of the Iranian capital, Tehran, against its guest, the head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement, Ismail Haniyeh, which led to his martyrdom and that of one of his companions, a few hours after an attack launched by the Israeli Air Force on the southern suburb of Beirut, the stronghold of Hezbollah, targeting the party’s senior leader, Fouad Shukr.

The events taking place in the region have been unfolding dramatically, starting with the poorly directed “Majdal Shams Play,” which caused huge losses and which all expectations indicate was carried out by the Israeli occupation state, by bombing a football stadium, which resulted in dozens of martyrs and wounded Syrian youth and children in the occupied Golan Heights. Israel was quick to accuse Hezbollah of being responsible for the attack, and granted itself the right to avenge the blood of Syrian Arabs on Hezbollah, which confirmed beyond any doubt that it had nothing to do with the incident.

Two days after committing the crime, Israel began targeting the southern suburb of Beirut with three missiles targeting a residential building located next to a large hospital, for the second time during the war of extermination on Gaza after the assassination of Sheikh Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of the political bureau of Hamas, to announce yesterday morning, Wednesday, the assassination of the head of the political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, at his residence in Tehran.

In separate interviews with Al-Quds.com, writers and political analysts predicted that the region would witness an escalation that could lead to a full-scale war, based on the expected reactions from Iran and its allies. They said that the assassinations and targeting that are taking place indicate an Israeli attempt to confirm its ability to carry out complex operations and send strong messages in the region.

The writers and analysts pointed out that future scenarios depend on the nature of the reactions to these assassinations, as these events are likely to contribute to radical changes in regional policy, with the possibility of major powers, such as the United States, intervening to support Israel and protect its strategic interests in the region.

A major escalation is expected that may reach the level of a comprehensive war.

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi said that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is a clear indication that Iran and its Revolutionary Guards are unable to protect any political leaders, even in the heart of Tehran, and this embarrasses it because it is unable to protect its sovereignty.

Yaghi described the assassination of Haniyeh as part of a strategy aimed at embarrassing Iran, and drew attention to Israel's ability to reach its targets inside Iranian territory.

Yaghi said that future scenarios depend on the nature of the reactions to these assassinations between Israel, Iran and its axis. He expected that the current events would lead to a major escalation that would reach the level of a comprehensive war in the region.

Yaghi cited Russia's position, which believes that the Middle East is on the verge of a large-scale war due to the stalemate in the Gaza Strip and the US administration's failure to exert sufficient pressure on Israel to stop the escalation.

Yaghi added: "Assassinations are not new and Israel has always practiced them. They will not lead to the destruction of any party, but rather it realizes that they lead to reactions that Israel believes it can absorb, but this time things are completely different."

According to Yaghi, Israel is trying to achieve two goals from these assassinations: avoiding entering into a comprehensive war by absorbing the reaction if it is ineffective, and thus achieving the goal before the Israeli public that it can take revenge on Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran.

Ability to perform complex operations that cross borders

Yaghi pointed out that the assassinations of leaders such as Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh, along with the attacks on Baghdad within ten hours, reflect a clear message from Israel, in coordination with the United States, that it is ready for war and that it is capable of carrying out complex operations that cross borders.

Yaghi stressed that the United States succeeded in its maneuver to convince Iran and its axis that it does not encourage escalation but rather works to curb it, but the assassinations that occurred confirm the opposite, and that there is even coordination between Israel and America, as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that America will defend and protect Israel, even though the initiator of the attack was the State of Israel.

Critical days to determine the future of the region

According to Yaghi, the nature of the response to the assassinations and the Israeli response will determine the shape of the next stage, with the possibility that the region will witness radical changes that may lead to destruction, and perhaps to calm. The coming days will be decisive in determining the political and military future of the region, but the scene will not be the same as it was before October 7. Rather, according to the data, it seems that geopolitical changes will occur.

Yaghi believes that the current situation opens the way for new rules of engagement, and may lead to a change in the balance of power in the region, and everything will depend on action on the ground.

He expressed his belief that there are American strategic plans aimed at achieving major changes in the region, according to the vision of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which go beyond controlling the Gaza Strip, and aim to secure Israel for the coming century by weakening the forces that threaten it.

Yaghi pointed out that Israel seeks to extinguish the threats posed by Iran, with the support of America and NATO, so that the region will not be as it was before October 7, as well as to thwart attempts at Chinese and Russian influence in the region, and to protect American interests.

Israel does not take a step without coordination with America

“Israel does not take any step without coordination with the US administration in this regard, which is what we have seen from the statements of US officials about protecting and supporting Israel. It is clear that there is no deal except according to Israeli and US standards, and its basis is Hamas’ surrender and imposing a security update that prevents any threat that Israel might be exposed to. America also wants to send a message that it is the decision-maker in the region, and that it will not allow Israel to be defeated, and that the existence of resistance movements threatens its interests. Therefore, it is working to weaken the axis of resistance (Iran) to impose facts, the most important of which is that this is an area of US influence and is not allowed to be bypassed by other international parties such as Russia and China,” he said.

Yaghi concluded by saying: “There are wrong calculations that the people of the region will pay the price for, but if the region explodes as a whole, neither America nor Israel will be able to impose their will on the region. Rather, the entire political geography will change, and it will not be in America’s interest.”

Netanyahu is trying to escape forward

For his part, writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi said that the timing of Ismail Haniyeh's assassination came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United States, where he received support from Congress and the American deep state for the decision to escalate against those he calls the enemies of Israel and America, as he is the defender of US interests in the region.

Anbatawi pointed out that this escalation comes in light of Netanyahu's exploitation of the weakness of US President Joe Biden and the turnout for the US elections, in addition to the Knesset's summer vacation, which allowed him to work alone and open all fronts.

Anbatawi believes that Netanyahu's goal in this escalation is to escape forward and use US support as a possible way out of his internal crisis.

Escalation message to Iran

Anbatawi said: "It is clear that the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran carries an implicit message indicating escalation against Iran," noting that the assassination policy pursued by the Israeli occupation is both old and new at the same time, and it is the easiest for it because it has no alternatives.

He pointed out that the occupation believes that this policy may shake the factions and strike the morale of the Palestinian people, but previous experiences have proven its failure, as those factions became stronger after the assassination of their leaders.

Anbatawi stressed that the resistance axis, which united after the Battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa on October 7, will not remain silent in the face of Israeli attacks.

He pointed out that as a result of this escalation, things may develop into a comprehensive war, as Netanyahu believes that he is able to ignite the war, but it is important to emphasize that he cannot stop it, and he pointed to the possibility of the United States entering as a direct military party to defend Israel.

Anbatawi pointed out that although a regional war is not desired by most parties, the Israeli occupation's mentality, which is not based on logic, continues to escalate.

"Netanyahu and his allies in the government are not relying on the logic that war will lead to great destruction, but rather on the Talmudic doctrine that guides their policies," he said.

Palestinian unity

Anbatawi pointed out that the current Israeli escalation proves the existence of a comprehensive war on the Palestinian people, stressing the importance of achieving Palestinian national unity and rejecting all tools of division, through developing a unified political program and strengthening political partnership.

Anbatawi stressed that Palestinian unity will be necessary to confront the major challenges facing the Palestinian cause at the present time.

He stressed that national cohesion will enable the Palestinians to present a unified message and clear demands to the world, which will strengthen their position in the international arena and enhance their ability to defend their rights.

broad strategic plan

As for the writer and expert on Israeli affairs, Alif Sabbagh, he pointed out the possible existence of coordination between Israel and the United States regarding the assassinations that took place.

Sabbagh believes that the recent operations, including the assassination in Tehran, may be part of a broad strategic plan agreed upon during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent visit to Washington.

According to Sabbagh, evidence suggests that the United States played a role in encouraging Israel to carry out limited military operations, while reassuring Lebanese leaders that the attacks would not target Beirut.

Sabbagh said that the United States deceived the Lebanese leadership by reassuring them, then publicly declared that it would support Israel militarily if Hezbollah responded.

He pointed out that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran comes in an attempt to sow discord between the Palestinian resistance and Iran, and to promote a message that Iran is unable to protect anyone, even its leaders, even inside Tehran, and all you have to do is accept Israeli hegemony.

Dismantling the unit of squares

Sabbagh said: "The Israeli-American attempts to strip the Palestinian public of its trust in Iran and dismantle the unity of the arenas is a strategic goal they have been striving for for years, especially since the war of extermination was launched on Gaza."

Sabbagh pointed out that the possible scenarios are varied and may be contradictory, including the possibility that Israel has started a war on the axis of resistance without an official declaration, and the resistance may respond in a limited or broad manner.

Sabbagh added: “There is a major Israeli military operation in Yemen, another in Lebanon, a third in Iran, and a fourth carried out by America in Iraq, and this was preceded by an assassination operation in Gaza. If the resistance axis responds in kind, it will undoubtedly be a regional war. If the resistance wants to respond in a limited way, this will not satisfy the resistance audience, and will create a state of frustration and lack of trust in Iran and the leadership of the resistance axis in general, and this is what Israel and America hope for.”

Preparing to pass the Abrahamic Alliance

Sabbagh believes that these events may pave the way for the passage of the Abraham Alliance and the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a goal sought by both the current US administration and Netanyahu. This may require offering some crumbs to Hamas to accept the terms of the deal. Egypt and Qatar are working to convince Hamas of it, and this scenario may be what was agreed upon in Washington.

Sabbagh said: “America and the Democratic Party need this deal on the eve of the elections, and they need a strategic achievement in normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and in establishing the Abrahamic Alliance, and this will help Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the elections, and Netanyahu also wants this alliance, but he wants the normalization alliance to be imposed on the Arabs by force, which satisfies his allies in the government and weakens his opponents inside Israel.”

He added that these indicators may contribute to strengthening Netanyahu's popularity and reducing the influence of his political opponents, because all these opponents do is publicly support the assassinations.

Sabbagh referred to Gantz’s statement immediately after the assassination in Lebanon that he “hopes that the assassination is part of a comprehensive plan followed by other actions,” and this support and vision serves Netanyahu and does not serve the opposition.

Deep political and security implications

In turn, writer and political analyst Sari Samour said that all leaders, wherever they are, are vulnerable to assassination, but the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of the Iranian capital, Tehran, carries deep political and security implications.

According to Samour, the place where the assassination took place, the Iranian capital, is the most sensitive, as it represents a violation of Iranian sovereignty, especially since Haniyeh was a guest at the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president. This incident puts Iran in an embarrassing position and poses a major challenge to it, as it is seen as an attack on Iranian sovereignty.

Sammour pointed out that the assassination of Haniyeh came at a sensitive time after the targeting of the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Fouad Shukr, and the targeting of sites in Iraq and Hodeidah in Yemen, which indicates the targeting of the axis of resistance movements and Iran's allies.

Netanyahu sends two messages

Samour said that Israel may be seeking through these operations to send multiple messages, including confirming its ability to reach any place and showing its ability to carry out operations against large targets anywhere and that its reach is extensive, as well as sending a message to Israeli society “that we assassinated the head of the Hamas movement that carried out the attack on October 7.”

Samour pointed out that assassinations are part of the Israeli doctrine, as it has carried out similar operations in the past.

According to Samour, the symbolism of assassinating a person like Haniyeh is important to Israel, as he has a special status and is the “dynamo” of the Hamas movement. He is considered one of its most prominent leaders and has a major role in trade union, advocacy, academic, military, political, parliamentary and governmental work. He has a remarkable popular presence locally, Arab and in Islamic countries, which reflects the depth of the Israeli targeting.

Possible response scenarios

Regarding the possible response, Samour explained that there are several scenarios that could occur, including limited reactions, or expanding the range of missiles by the resistance’s allies without going to a full-scale war, or perhaps there could be Iranian intervention targeting sensitive facilities, or a strong response from Hezbollah against Israel, which could lead to a full-scale regional war, and major influential countries could enter the war, which could lead to a major escalation, and all possibilities are possible, while Samour expects the United States to intervene to support and protect Israel.

Samour pointed out that Hezbollah, which has previously threatened to respond to Israel, may resort to targeting wider areas or sensitive facilities, and may move towards qualitative operations that lead to a greater escalation or a comprehensive war. Targeting Fouad Shukr places him before his responsibilities, and we may witness a qualitative response in the coming hours and days, and perhaps targeting facilities or burning Israeli ships, as Hezbollah feels that it is being targeted, so the response is not unlikely to be qualitative, and things may roll into a greater escalation or a comprehensive war.

Sammour stressed that the Israeli targeting puts the resistance axis before a major test to reconsider its calculations and take deterrent steps, otherwise Israel may become more daring.