The incident of a rocket falling on a children's playground in the village of Majdal Shams in the occupied Syrian Golan opened the door to political and field challenges following Israel's accusation that Hezbollah launched the rocket from the border village of Shebaa, despite the party's denial of carrying out the operation and considering what happened to be the result of a rocket falling from the Iron Dome, which intercepts missiles coming from Lebanon.

Hence, the repercussions of what happened can be read in a broader sense than a missile error or a planned operation, given that what happened coincided with the negotiations taking place in Rome between the parties to the international mediation to stop the war in Gaza, in parallel with Israel’s preparation of a working paper that will be presented in the negotiating meetings with the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.

Hence, the direct repercussions of the operation appeared directly to observers and analysts, whether they were repercussions in Lebanon, in Israel, or even in the broad regional framework that feared that matters would escalate to include entering into dangerous war paths.

The American position after the "Majdal Shams" operation seemed more rigid in rejecting the path of the large-scale war, considering that it cannot control the pace of any field development, and that there are dangers of the possibility of it turning into a war.

The most important repercussion in Lebanon is the consecration of the state of conflict and internal Lebanese division with the event, which is a continuation of the state of greater division related to the position supporting and opposing the opening of the southern front supporting Gaza since October 8th. This division has extended to Hezbollah’s allies themselves, who have begun to declare in a striking manner the necessity of stopping military operations and entering into direct negotiation tracks that are surrounded by regional and international sponsorship that has appeared through the movement of foreign envoys since the beginning of the war to prevent escalation.

On the other hand, the most important reflection of this blow is the state of differentiation that has occurred between the "Druze" components in the region, specifically between the political situation represented by the Druze of Lebanon, led by Walid Jumblatt, and the Druze of Israel, who are directly involved in supporting Israel in the ongoing battle in Gaza and the south through the sect's sheikh, Muwaffaq Tarif.

It seemed that the increasing pressure on Walid Jumblatt, who had extensive relations with the Druze of Israel and the Golan Heights, was raising fears of an internal sectarian division within the Druze community, which would increase the pressure first on Jumblatt as a historical leader, and second on Hezbollah, which has benefited for years from the unity of the Druze decision in Lebanon and Syria to cover its political and field position since 2006 until today.

But the most important and striking thing was the statement of the Lebanese government, which showed in its brief statement a state of fear and dread of things getting out of hand in the south, through its emphasis on rejecting the targeting of civilians, and demanding an end to the war taking place in Gaza and the south, after more than nine months of political and military reassurance.

This reassurance, which was raising suspicion internally, was linked firstly to the ongoing coordination between its president, Najib Mikati, and Hezbollah to control the pace of the war and prevent its expansion, and secondly through American and Western messages of reassurance that it was not possible to allow a large-scale war between the party and Israel, despite the overwhelming Israeli desire for war with Hezbollah and to deal it painful blows.

On the Israeli level, it is noteworthy that Yoav Galant, the Israeli Minister of War, who preceded Netanyahu’s return from Washington, conducted an assessment of the military situation with the leaders of the security services, and determined the nature of the military response to Hezbollah. This means that the War Council meeting headed by Netanyahu was emptied of any attempt by Netanyahu to seize control of the war, its scope and nature, which proves a basic theory that Galant is committed to American controls regarding Lebanon.
But the most prominent question of all that is happening is: "Will the Majdal Shams strike lead to war?" The logical answer seemed to be no, but what is certain is that what happened will result in an Israeli strike deep inside Lebanon that may be one of the most painful strikes for Hezbollah. However, a more important question may arise here, which is: "How will Hezbollah deal with any strike deep inside?" Considering that Hezbollah is still committed to a field performance whose title is "strike for strike."

On the American level, Washington, which received Netanyahu a few days ago with a showy celebration in Congress, reaffirmed to him its rejection of the option of war with Lebanon for several reasons. Hence, the statements of the American envoy for energy security, Amos Hochstein, emerged hours before the operation, who, during an interview, reaffirmed the idea of the connection between the Lebanese front and the Gaza front.

It is a veiled response to an Israeli attempt to separate the two fronts, either through a diplomatic solution that precedes the cessation of the war in Gaza, and this path is rejected by Hezbollah, or through what Netanyahu proposed during his visit to Washington to launch a limited military operation against Lebanon that would force it to negotiate a ceasefire before the end of the war in the Strip.

In contrast, the American position after Operation Shams seemed more rigid, rejecting the course of the large-scale war, considering that it cannot control the pace of any field development, and that there are dangers of it turning into a war. This position was accompanied by Hochstein’s call yesterday with the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and the White House deliberately leaked the contents of the call.

In addition to Hochstein's positions, there are still signs of American fear, as evidenced by Biden's decision to allow Lebanese whose visas have expired to remain in the United States due to developments in the situation between Hezbollah and Israel. There is a belief that the Americans consider what happened yesterday in Majdal Shams a favorable opportunity to impose the negotiating track by separating the arenas by highlighting the potential state of tension on the Israeli side.

In contrast, the visit of the US Deputy Secretary of State for Human Resources to Lebanon was highlighted, and it was motivated by examining all options for evacuating Americans living in Lebanon and seeing the situation firsthand if the situation develops, which means that Washington is not completely confident about what Benjamin Netanyahu might do.

However, in the medium and long term, what happened yesterday reinforces the Israeli entity’s narrative that Hezbollah has become a strategic security problem whose danger must be removed from the borders, with the matter moving beyond being a displacement crisis for more than 100,000 settlers in the north, and the danger for Israel shifting towards other areas, specifically the occupied Golan Heights. Here, the challenges are mixed, given that resolving this issue is linked first and foremost to the settlement of the dust of the American presidential battle and its repercussions on the Israeli interior, and the nature of the relationship of any future administration in Washington with Iran.

From here, Kamala Harris's speech during her reception of Netanyahu can be understood as an attempt to address the feelings of American youth who are dissatisfied with Biden's position, as the joint speech between Biden and Netanyahu was cancelled after their meeting, and the official position was left to his vice president, the presidential candidate, to announce this position.

But what is certain is that Lebanon, like the entire region, is waiting to see what these pressures will produce, and if they do not succeed, the signs of escalation will be greater, especially since the Majdal Shams incident will open the door to Netanyahu’s attempts to infiltrate the vacuum and conflict extending from Washington to the Middle East.

Sohaib Jawhar
Lebanese journalist