Antoine Shalhat: Escalation of confrontation on the northern front is very strong and may lead to the outbreak of a comprehensive war
 Dr. Ashraf Badr: Excluding a comprehensive war due to the lack of an American green light and because the Israeli army is exhausted
 Jamal Zaqout: Majdal Shams missile is definitely Israeli and Netanyahu wants to involve America in a regional war
 Nihad Abu Ghosh: Israel wants to strike without getting involved in a war with Hezbollah

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spared no trick, incident or pretext to evade the swap deal and continue his war, trying every time to lure the United States into direct combat, hoping to expand the scope of the confrontation to cover up his army’s failure to achieve its declared and hidden goals on a limited combat front, and to settle scores with Hezbollah, which has succeeded over the past ten months in demonstrating the Israeli army’s inability – contrary to its usual behavior – to respond to its attacks, drones, and accurate and inaccurate missiles with their geographical and strategic range.

The incident of the explosion of an "unidentified" missile in one of the playgrounds in the town of Majdal Shams, located on the slopes of Mount Hermon in the occupied Syrian Golan, which resulted in the martyrdom and injury of dozens of children and young men, comes in the context of the Israeli Prime Minister's tricks to prolong the war, which he fears will stop, and in order to expand its scope towards the north and perhaps further, in light of the estimates of the political, military and security levels in Israel that the danger on the northern front is greater than in the Gaza Strip.

In separate interviews with Al-Quds.com, political writers and analysts believe that the Majdal Shams missile explosion incident is a critical test for the region, and that the incident may be a prelude to a major escalation that may lead to the outbreak of a multi-front regional war. They point out that the potential escalation between Israel and Hezbollah may not develop into a comprehensive war, due to the lack of clear American support for Israel and internal pressures related to the lack of resources. Israel may resort to less direct targeting operations instead of expanding the scope of the war, in an attempt to avoid a major escalation, but no one has a complete vision of the fate of the escalation and its paths.

They said: "Despite the pressure on Israel to prevent escalation, Israel may involve the United States in a regional war, in light of warnings of possible repercussions.

Majdal Shams is located in the Golan Heights, southwest of Syria, and was occupied by Israel during the 1967 war, and has remained under its control ever since. According to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, Majdal Shams had a population of 11,458 in 2022, most of whom are Druze.

Despite Israel's attempts to annex the Golan and integrate the people of Majdal Shams, these attempts were met with firm national positions, as they rejected the annexation decision and refused to be conscripted into the occupation army. They also maintained close relations with mother Syria until now.

Israel accuses, Hezbollah denies

The writer, political analyst and specialist in Israeli affairs, Antoine Shalhat, believes that “the most important message from the recent incident in Majdal Shams is that the possibility of escalating the war of attrition on the northern front with Lebanon and Hezbollah is very strong, and may lead to the outbreak of a comprehensive war on multiple fronts.”

After the missile explosion, Israel rushed to accuse Hezbollah of launching it, but the party denied any connection to the incident.

In this context, Shalhat said: Israel has been concealing many details since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip and the outbreak of the war of attrition on the support fronts, and the same may apply to the explosion incident in Majdal Shams, especially since that incident serves its interests and is in line with its military objectives.

One of the most prominent things that it is keeping secret, in this regard, is the failure of the Israeli air defense system to intercept the missile, which resulted in a large number of casualties, dead and wounded.

Need US green light

Shalhat added: It is clear from the reactions in Israel that there is a desire for escalation, but Tel Aviv does not have the green light from the United States to achieve this, indicating that Israel may decide to escalate, especially if it obtains the support of the United States, which may serve the interests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Shalhat pointed out that the possible scenarios include either an Israeli escalation followed by an escalation by Hezbollah, which could lead to a multi-front war, or international intervention, especially from the United States, to curb the escalation and maintain the current status quo of a war of attrition.

Netanyahu seeks justification for escalation

Shalhat believes that Israel is benefiting from the incident because it provides it with a “valid reason” for the escalation it appears to have prepared for, and this is evident in the context of its rejection of Hezbollah’s denial, and its disregard for the fact that the party has not targeted civilians since the beginning of the exchange of fire on October 8, 2023.

According to Shalhat, the escalation serves the Israeli government because it prolongs the war and puts pressure on the displaced population in the north to find solutions to the repercussions of the confrontation with Hezbollah.

Shalhat pointed out that the war remains one of Netanyahu's main goals, as he works to obstruct any measures that might lead to ending it, including reaching a prisoner exchange deal.

Israel vows revenge for Majdal Shams children!

For his part, writer and political analyst Dr. Ashraf Badr said: We are facing two contradictory narratives about the missile explosion in the town of Majdal Shams, between Israel and Hezbollah, while Israel claims that it will respond to the incident to "defend Majdal Shams", and justifies this on the basis of the presence of child victims, and there is an attempt by Israel to use the incident to expand the circle of targeting in Lebanon and criminalize Hezbollah and the resistance.

According to Badr, the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to develop into a full-scale war, for two main reasons: the first is that Israel does not have the green light from the United States to wage war on Lebanon, and the second is that the Israeli occupation army is suffering from exhaustion and a lack of equipment and numbers.

Badr pointed out that Israel may seek to expand the circle of war, but he does not expect matters to reach a regional war or target Beirut and the Lebanese infrastructure.

He added: Instead, Lebanon may witness an Israeli escalation through assassinations, bombing and targeting, suggesting that France will intervene to prevent the outbreak of a comprehensive war, given its role and influence in Lebanon and its interests.

Hezbollah has the courage to apologize if it is responsible

In turn, writer, political analyst, and head of the Land Center for Research and Policy, Jamal Zaqout, said: The missile that fell in Majdal Shams was certainly Israeli, whether by mistake or even intentionally, to seize the opportunity for political and military blackmail of Hezbollah.

He stressed that the party could not have deliberately targeted the town, noting that if Hezbollah were responsible, it would have announced this and offered a public apology. It had previously apologized for a previous incident in one of the Arab towns in the north during the 2006 war.

Zaqout raised two possibilities for the type of missile: either an Iron Dome missile that was launched by mistake, or a missile planned to justify the escalation. Netanyahu also wants to use this incident to push Lebanon towards sectarian strife, something that the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, has warned against decisively.

Incitement to war with a sectarian tone

Zaqout pointed out that Israel is seeking to exploit the incident by mobilizing its society and encouraging it to be aggressive, and promoting the idea that war is coming.

Zaqout explained that the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the United States carried strict and decisive messages regarding the ceasefire, and Netanyahu may seek to exploit the incident to expand the scope of the war and achieve military goals, while trying to blackmail the United States, which sought to contain the escalation in Lebanon.

Zaqout pointed out that Netanyahu's main goal since the beginning of the war on Gaza was to drag the United States into a regional war, and he is well aware that America will not leave Israel alone if a war occurs.

International parties do not want to expand the war.

He pointed out that Israel is not concerned with the potential destruction in Lebanon, although the main parties driving the management of the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, such as the United States and Europe, do not want to expand the war, and Iran does not seek to expand it either.

Zaqout explained that the failure of the United States to stop the war on Gaza raises questions about its ability to restrain Israel and prevent it from getting involved in a regional war.

He pointed out that Netanyahu seeks to achieve victory in Gaza, and the potential war on Lebanon is a means to cover up the failure in Gaza, where he was unable to achieve the main goals except for the genocide and crimes against humanity he committed in the Strip.

Zaqout stressed that international positions reject expanding the scope of the war, but Israel is stubborn, and there is no deterrent to it except the United States, pointing out that all these wars come in the absence of the Arab position that represents a cover for this war and leaves the arena to Israel.

He stressed that Israel needs to feel that war has difficult consequences, and this can only be achieved by transforming international positions rejecting war, including the Security Council resolution, into practical political steps that oblige Israel to do so.


Indications are that the missile was not from Hezbollah.

As for the writer, political analyst and specialist in Israeli affairs, Nihad Abu Ghosh, he said: No one yet knows the full truth behind the rocket incident in Majdal Shams.

Abu Ghosh pointed out that Hezbollah has not targeted any civilian target for ten months, and usually uses drones, small missiles, and small explosive devices.

He added: All indications indicate that the missile was not a Hezbollah missile, but rather may have been an Iron Dome missile, due to the weight of the explosives, which reached 50 kilograms.

Abu Ghosh stressed that if Hezbollah had launched the rocket, it would have admitted to it.

He pointed out that the Israeli right considered the incident an opportunity to achieve its goals, and to emphasize that Hezbollah must be targeted as soon as possible.

fanning the flames of sectarian strife

Abu Ghosh said: The voices of the Israeli right have increased, demanding a response to what happened in the Majdal Shams incident, which resulted in martyrs and wounded, for three reasons: First, to drive a wedge between Hezbollah and the components of the Palestinian and Syrian peoples, as the occupation was keen to show the sectarian identity of the people of Majdal Shams; second, the explosion of the missile in Majdal Shams gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to evade pressure to conclude a swap deal; and third, what happened allowed the occupation to justify the escalation.

Abu Ghosh pointed out that there is an attempt to drag the United States into war, but it is not interested in an escalation of this kind. However, America will not abandon Israel if it goes to war, which could lead to a regional war.

He explained that Israel wants to strike without getting involved in a war with Hezbollah. However, the question remains whether Israel is able to confront Hezbollah's capabilities.

Abu Ghosh pointed out that Israel is interested in escalation in Lebanon as a means of escaping the situation in Gaza and shuffling the cards in the next stage.