Between Biden and Trump: The American elections and their impact on the Middle East....Is Trump an American Gorbachev?

Societal division
The first parameter is the age of both candidates; In the United States, no one who has reached the age of 81 or 78 has ever participated as a candidate in the presidential race. The average age of previous presidents when assuming the presidency was usually between 52 and 65 years. The second thing is that America is experiencing its weakest state as a superpower that came into existence after World War II, as it suffers from an unprecedented societal division, a national debt crisis that continues to expand every day, and a political crisis represented by the emergence of a generation of populists that does not believe in the idea of the state and its institutions, and has the belief That the political and economic decision is hijacked for the benefit of a specific group that works against it.

Therefore, these two matters are directly related to the ability of the United States to play the role assigned to it as a great power in the coming years.

Between the state of blockage in the political horizon based on the presence of two elderly candidates who do not have the ability to address the future and its issues, and between the aspirations of a new generation that believes in freedom and the aspirations of a world that expects America to play a positive role in supporting security and stability, John L. recalled. O'Sullivan, who wrote his famous essay "The Great Nation of Futurity" published in 1839 in the US magazine "Democratic Review" in which he said: "Our national birth was the beginning of a new history, and the formation and progress of a political system." Untried, it separates us from the past and connects us only to the future... We can confidently assume that our country is destined to be the great nation of the future.”

Between that article published in the nineteenth century, which paints a dreamy picture of a democratic homeland based on a political system different from the rest of the world’s systems in terms of its democracy and commitment to human rights, and the keenness of its theorists and leaders to address the future and its issues in a fair manner that benefits the American citizen and the rest of the world’s population, and between the outcomes The last presidential debate is a big difference that requires everyone to pay attention and reconsider the ability of the United States to lead the world to a space of freedom and respect for basic human values, including respect for the choices of other peoples, at the same time as it faces unprecedented internal challenges.

Challenges
As for the second factor, the United States, as it approaches the general elections, faces a number of economic, societal, and political challenges that will play a decisive role, among other factors, in determining the identity of the next president, and the party that will control Congress with its two chambers: (Senate and Representatives), and even that will go beyond the American interior to include The nature of the country's expected foreign policy and its repercussions on the rest of the world.

On the economic and social level, inflation is still continuing and the widening gap between the poor and the rich has become a matter of concern to many economists and politicians alike, because of its role in determining the degree of societal stability, the possibility of the spread of violence and the high crime rate.

This is accompanied by an increase in the national debt, which has now exceeded $34 trillion. According to “Investopedia” (a global financial media site headquartered in New York City, which was founded in 1999 and is considered one of the most reliable sites in its statistics), the total government debt has reached $34.83 trillion as of April 2024, and the foreign countries that The largest amount of US debt is borne by: Japan, China, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, and Canada.

Japan owns $1.15 trillion of the total US debt as the largest creditor, followed by China in second place with a value of $770.7 billion, then followed by the United Kingdom with a value of $710.2 billion, then followed by Luxembourg with a total amount of $384.4 billion, ranking fifth as a country. Canada with a total amount of $338.2 billion. The issue of foreign debt is a complex and multifaceted process that has major implications for the economic future of the United States of America, and thus for its geopolitical movement as a superpower.

The crisis economic reality
This crisis economic reality, which has deepened the gap between the rich who have become richer and the poor who have become poorer, cannot be ignored. Its effects on the electoral process on the one hand, and the ability of any of the debaters, Biden or Trump, if he wins, to lead a country that meets the needs of 37.9 million citizens living in poverty. According to the US Census Bureau - 2022 statistics - it is equivalent to 11% of the total population, which represents a very important electoral bloc.

The ability of the winner in the upcoming elections to provide quality health care and education, and even secure housing and financial stability, cannot be achieved without presenting clear plans and policies to overcome this crisis, and this did not appear at all in the debate that brought together the candidates, which makes the challenge remain.

Political challenge
The political challenge facing America in its election season is the absence of common ground between the two main parties: the Democratic and the Republican on the foundations of the democratic system and its management mechanisms.

It may seem understandable to the observer that there is a difference between the two parties’ perceptions of various political, economic and social issues on the one hand, and the difference in their views on foreign policy issues on the other hand. The difference in viewpoints and the difference in mechanisms for implementing those perceptions is what provides a reasonable space for the voter to differentiate between the competitors, but the crisis has become Existential at the level of the foundations and assets on which the entire American system is based.

Those who voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential elections reached 74 million voters, representing 47% of the total number of voters, as his supporters believe that the elections were not fair, and therefore President Biden is an illegitimate president, even though those who voted for him amounted to 81 million voters who contributed to his arrival in the House. White is president.

Based on this belief, Trump’s supporters believe that the existing institutions are illegitimate and do not represent them, and they attacked the Congress headquarters on January 6, 2020. To prevent the adoption of the results of the general elections.

This thinking has been growing day after day in the minds of the former president’s supporters until this moment. We are on the verge of the next general elections that will be held in November of this year, and they believe in the necessity of creating alternative institutions with different legitimacy to represent them.

Perhaps the greatest threat to the American political system and its ability to maintain the unity of the state is the growth of this hostile feeling towards federal institutions, which Trump supported after leaving the White House in 2020 until the moment he entered the debate hall, and he did not strive in any way with his supporters to create an environment suitable for rational political work. Based on the peaceful transfer of power and recognition of election results.

Trump added to this another problem, which was his questioning of the integrity of the judiciary that now appears before him in major civil and criminal cases, which may lead him to prison, and portraying it as an unfair judiciary that has been politicized to pursue political opponents. These accusations created a passion among his supporters, and thus a tendency to engage in war against state institutions on the grounds that they do not represent them.

Project 2025
The third data is the 2025 project, which emerged as a result of a deep evaluation process carried out by one hundred conservative right-wing organizations with very extremist tendencies, under the auspices and supervision of the Heritage Foundation. This process concluded that the previous presidency of Donald Trump did not succeed in changing the face of America to become more conservative and extremist. Because they have power without a clear plan and individuals loyal enough to implement it. The project sought to address these shortcomings through four main elements:

A clearly defined political agenda that serves as a plan.
Employees who are loyal enough to implement the plan.
The existence of a presidential academy to train these employees to ensure the success of the plan’s implementation.
Having a detailed book of a very specific agenda that must be implemented during the first 180 days of the next Trump administration.
This ultra-conservative project is protected by a judicial system of right-wing conservative judges supervised by the Federalist Society, which includes at least one hundred thousand lawyers and jurists. Among its most notable achievements is that five Supreme Court justices have left it: Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito. Trump appointed the first three of them during his first presidency.

The note worthy of attention here is that this project is very interested in changing the entire structure of the state and its institutions, which will have serious repercussions on the American interior and exterior in general and on the Middle East region in particular. The full ideas for this project are contained in a large, 922-page book called Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.

Scenarios
The question here is: What are the implications of either candidate winning the presidency of the United States on both the internal and external levels? To answer this question, there are two scenarios:

First scenario:
Trump wins, leading Biden in all opinion polls. In this case, Trump will have the opportunity to fully implement the far-right Project 2025 plan. In my personal estimation, if that happens, Trump will be like an American Gorbachev, whose mission will be limited to dismantling the federal government and completely marginalizing its role.

This would be an advanced step towards the dismantling of the United States. Dismantling in this case is not necessarily the collapse of the federal union that includes fifty states, but the escalation of independence and rebellion against the central system may lead in the future to complete dismantling or a return to the confederal system as was the case in the past.

On the external level, America will be more inward-looking with the exception of the China front, which may witness more confrontations on the commercial level, and perhaps a military confrontation at some point, with an almost complete absence from the Middle East.

Second scenario
President Biden's victory. In this case, and against the backdrop of the aforementioned political challenge, he will face great difficulty in recognizing the election results, and this may lead to a type of violent confrontation that may lead to a civil war if the ruling elite in the three state agencies - especially the Republican members of Congress - do not rise to the level of Responsibility and respect for the constitution.

If Biden is recognized as president for a second term, his term will be marked by political conflict with conservatives who will spare no effort in employing the judicial arsenal they have built to obstruct all of Biden’s projects. On the external level, attention will be focused on China, and the attempt to resolve the Ukrainian war in the interest of the Western camp, although heavy involvement in this war may carry with it a growing security threat to Europe if Putin feels any kind of existential threat to his country.

The Middle East and the electoral race
There is a fourth factor: the security dilemma for the countries of the Middle East. This dilemma will remain if either party wins, as the priority will be for China as a real strategic competitor. Anyone who looks at the US defense budget for the year 2024 sees a significant portion of it allocated for this purpose, and thus diversifying the strategic alliances of the countries of the Middle East region remains a very urgent matter. The countries of the region have the ability to maneuver if they use the capabilities and means of pressure at their disposal.

In another context, although the United States spends more on defense than any other country, the Congressional Budget Office expects defense spending as a share of GDP to decline over the coming years – from 2.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.5%. % in 2034.

Therefore, relying on Washington from a security standpoint remains futile in the coming years.

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