The Gaza war and changing political equations

From day to day, the assessment of the situation and the balance of power varies, with the escalation of the stages of the war in the Gaza Strip. The positions of the countries concerned differ with developments on the ground and changing trends in public opinion, which makes assessing the political position a renewed process that requires continuous review.
But there are features that have not changed over the course of the war, as it can be said that the resistance maintained the initiative throughout, and its hand remained the upper hand, superior in the ground war.
Another feature that has not changed is the presence of two separate tracks in this war, one of which is the ground war between the resistance and the Israeli army, and the second is the track of the humanitarian war of genocide waged by the occupation army against civilians. These are two wars running on parallel paths, and the war of extermination is a stand-alone crime that has no connection to the war that Israel is waging against the resistance, and does not achieve any of its goals.
This crime against humanity provoked the global conscience, which rose up against it. It also led to an increase in public opinion’s sympathy for the resistance, the Palestinian people, and the Palestinian cause. This has remained constant throughout the nine months, since October 7, 2023.
The most prominent variable is the change in positions from one day to the next. For example, during the first week of this July, talk stopped about negotiations between America, Egypt, and Qatar to continue advancing the faltering armistice agreement.
A week or more before that, America had withdrawn its project for a truce agreement that had been signed by several countries, and accused Hamas of being solely responsible for the failure of that agreement. It acquitted Netanyahu of any responsibility for that, and claimed that he had agreed to it.
Ironically, it was Hamas that publicly and officially approved the draft agreement, while Netanyahu requested impossible amendments to it, and used reservations about his amendments as an excuse for silent withdrawal, while he never announced at any moment that he agreed to the agreement.

Withdrawal of the American project
America's withdrawal of its project meant relieving Netanyahu of any American or European pressure that would dissuade him - even partially - from his firm decision to continue the war until the end. And holding Hamas responsible for the continuation of this war. Thus, Netanyahu gained two good things: stopping the pressure on him to stop the war, and relieving him at the same time of any responsibility for its continuation, and this is his ultimate goal. While Biden was preoccupied with his defeat in the debate against Trump, the Israeli army, under direct orders from Netanyahu, proceeded with a free hand in the war of extermination against people and inhabited homes, focusing on expanding the famine and stopping the entry of aid to a minimum.

Escalation of resistance operations

But the striking irony was the resistance’s ability to escalate its operations, inflicting heavy losses on the Israeli army, including officers, soldiers, tanks, and equipment, as if it had returned stronger than it had been for nine months.
Netanyahu is not much preoccupied with calculating his losses in the field, whether in Gaza or on the border with Lebanon, or because of the naval blockade led by the Houthis against him. His priority is to remain in power. For fear of being sent to prison if the war ends, the most important thing he is keen on achieving this goal is to maintain a majority of four votes in the Knesset to remain in power, which is what the alliance with Ben Gvir and Smotrich secures for him.
All the developments that have occurred since the start of this war have been in the interests of Israel and its army. It is paying a heavy bill in the military field, whether in Gaza or other fields supporting the resistance, losing the battle for public opinion internally and externally, and eroding its political and moral credibility at the global level.
A few months of these losses were enough to make the decision to stop the aggression, and to acknowledge, even implicitly, defeat, but this did not happen because of calculations that had nothing to do with the war, nor with the principles of conflict management, but rather to satisfy vanity, the lust for revenge, and fear of the consequences of declaring defeat.

Putting the ball back in Netanyahu's court

Before the end of the first week of July 2024, the Hamas leadership, in agreement with the leadership of the other resistance factions in Gaza, presented new proposals to get out of the impasse in the truce negotiations. This initiative immediately changed the equation of the political movement, which had entered the stage of suffocation.
Most importantly, it created confusion for the Americans who tried to throw the ball in Hamas’ court by holding it responsible for the failure of the negotiations and for Netanyahu, who was reassured by that. However, it put the ball back in their court and held them responsible for their actions and decisions.
The leadership of the resistance in the Gaza Strip demonstrated superior skill in managing the political conflict, as much as its skill in the field of ground warfare, which it turned into a network of traps surrounding the Israeli army wherever it went. Perhaps it is not an exaggeration to say that their intelligence and defensive and offensive combat tactics added new chapters to The science of asymmetric warfare and urban combat.
Thus, with a word from Hamas and the leaders of the resistance, the international scene changed in less than 24 hours, and eyes became drawn to the Doha negotiations, waiting for the response of Netanyahu and those behind him, and then the equation will change again, negatively or positively. This change from day to day is a characteristic we have seen repeated during the nine months of war in Gaza.
A final note remains on the sidelines of the above, which is that a careful look at the conditions of the leadership in America, Israel, and the Western world in general, reveals that they are heading day after day towards further decline, decline, and deterioration of the level. On the contrary, if we look at the level of the leadership of the resistance and its soldiers, we will find that it is progressing. Towards growth and prosperity.
We are faced with a child who is growing and becoming more mature in one area, and an old man who is growing weaker as the days pass by... and in this alone is a door to hope.

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The leadership of the resistance in the Gaza Strip demonstrated great skill in managing the political conflict, as much as it was skilled in the field of ground warfare, which it turned into a network of traps surrounding the Israeli army.


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