Despite Israeli statements and threats, and the publication of pictures of training for military operations to invade Lebanon, sources close to the security establishment in Tel Aviv stated that the current approach focuses on ending major military operations in the Gaza Strip, including halting them in the city of Rafah, and making efforts to reach an agreement. Agreement with the Lebanese authorities. But partisan conflicts within the right-wing government are currently obstructing this path.

The sources said that a number of former Israeli generals are launching a semi-organized campaign to warn against the dominance of the rhetoric of political and military threats, and they are publicly calling on the government to stop the war completely, make negotiations successful to conclude a prisoner exchange deal, and devote themselves to the “greatest danger” to Israel, coming from Tehran, according to the sources. Their opinion, and in their speech they are consistent with the American position.

 In this context, the position expressed by the Herzliya Conference, which concluded on Thursday, is highlighted, as it stated that Israel stands at a historic crossroads, “and we must decide how to move forward and combine high military capabilities with political wisdom.” The head of the conference, Reserve General Amos Gilad, said in a speech in which he summarized the conference’s message: “The army is working well in Lebanon and Gaza, but there are those who do not understand. We have tactical achievements, but when that is not accompanied by a strategic political goal, you no longer have achievements. We must not be tempted to establish military rule in Gaza, as this is an area in distress. The Gaza Strip is experiencing a disaster, and I know what I am saying very well. Because I served twice there as coordinator of civil administration and the Ministry of Security. I know that re-occupation, and there are those who want to re-settle, is a predicament, a sinking in the mud. It will make us bear responsibility for the economy and society, and we will not be able to do that. “We will confront the entire international community, and we will undermine our relations with the free world and the United States.”

Gilad added: “Our ally, the United States, is trying to provide us with a historic opportunity by forming a strategic regional axis, and offering us a strategic alliance and a rear front with the Arab countries in confronting Iran. It is a strategic, military, security and economic treasure for Israel, and an opportunity to achieve comprehensive peace. This alliance is proven through existing relations today at various levels, including security, with these countries led by the United States. “There is no better opportunity for our national security.”

He concluded by saying: “We are at a crossroads, from which we are heading towards strengthening existential military capabilities, adopting political wisdom, or deteriorating towards national catastrophe. In such cases, false slogans about victory are of no use, and continuing the war with Hamas and Hezbollah is of no use. If we want to recover from the disaster of October 7, we must take the path of wisdom.

A senior officer in the Israeli Air Force, who is familiar with the details of the war plans, warned in a letter he sent to members of the General Staff in recent days against “launching military operations at any cost,” and asked them to clarify to the political level that the Israeli army is not ready for a continuous war in Lebanon. And launching a war on Lebanon “will lead us to a greater strategic disaster than October 7.” According to what was reported by the military analyst on “Channel 13”, Alon Ben David, in his weekly article in the newspaper “Maariv”, on Friday, this general said: “Since its founding 76 years ago, the Israeli army was not qualified for a war that would last for nine months, but rather as an overwhelming army. He quickly calls up reserve forces, launches a war, resolves it within a short period, and returns to normal. All the military plans drawn up by the Israeli army, before October 7, were for a war that would last for a few weeks. “No one expected a war that would last for a year or years.”

He promised that “when the prime minister creates an unnecessary crisis with the United States over the supply of ammunition, he is fully aware of the meaning of that: this crisis is intended to give him an excuse and accuse others of the reason why he does not initiate a war in Lebanon.” According to him, “Netanyahu realizes that a war against Hezbollah at this time will incur greater costs and fewer achievements. The United States will most likely be on our side in a war like this, but even with American support, there is doubt whether the Israeli army, in its current state, can achieve an achievement against Hezbollah and justify the price that Israeli society will pay, and this is before talking about the lack of... Preparedness of the civilian home front.

The head of the National Security Research Institute in Tel Aviv and the former head of the Military Intelligence Division “Aman”, Tamir Hayman, said that Israel must draw lessons from the war on Gaza before it launches a war on Lebanon, noting that “a failure in the war (on Lebanon) will put... Israel is in a more dangerous situation than its current situation. Therefore, the timing of the war is less important than its completion, and it should be waged only in conditions that guarantee victory.

Regarding the lessons that Israel must learn before launching a wide-scale war on Lebanon, Hayman pointed out that Israel’s position “as a regional superpower has been destabilized, and its image as a militarily strong state has dissipated.” Israel faces the risk of widespread global isolation. American support, which reached its peak during the war on the tactical side, is not felt on the political side, and this is interpreted by those monitoring the situation, including Iran and countries in the Middle East, as cracks in the intimate relations between Washington and Tel Aviv.”

Hayman pointed out that Israel missed the opportunity to end the war on Gaza through political steps. He said: “Without applying the lessons learned from the war in the Gaza Strip and without overcoming the challenges that intensified during it, Israel will find itself in a problematic and complex situation many times more than its current situation: Israeli deterrence will erode further, the economy will be greatly damaged, and Israel will turn into a pariah state in the eyes of the world.” Western relations and soft relations with Arab countries of peace and normalization will continue to deteriorate.”

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after a meeting with former American officers on Thursday, issued a warning about “Iran’s regional goals.” He said that the “Iranian terrorist axis” aims to “invade” the countries of the Middle East, including the Gulf. He added that this was “only a matter of time,” according to the Israeli channel “iNews 24”, on its website. Netanyahu continued: “Iran confronts us on seven fronts: (Hamas), (Hezbollah), the Houthis, militias in Iraq, Syria, the West Bank, and Iran itself. They even seek to destabilize Jordan. The strategy aims to launch a joint ground attack on several fronts, in addition to missile strikes, according to what was stated in a report by the German News Agency. Netanyahu concluded his speech by emphasizing the necessity of neutralizing the Hamas movement. He said: “Our priority is to cut off this hand. (Hamas), those who attack us will not stay where they are. The battle will be long, but it will not end. We will put an end to it.”