PALESTINE
Sat 01 Jun 2024 7:15 am - Jerusalem Time
Israeli analyst talks about a final card in the hands of Netanyahu and his government in the battle of Rafah
Military analyst Alon Ben David expected Israel to fight "a long war that will extend for years, but the Israeli government is doing everything in its power to make us fight the war in a state of isolation and weaker than we were."
Ben David told Hebrew Channel 13 that Israel is "at the beginning of a long, multi-year war," but "the Israeli government is doing everything in its power for us to go to war while we are in a state of isolation and weaker than before."
He considered that "Gaza, without belittling it, is the smallest of our problems," noting that Israel faces seven fronts: Hamas in Gaza, Hamas in the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, in addition to "a direct war between... Iran and Israel.
He added that the seven fronts are “a challenge that will accompany us for years and force us to look differently at our place in the region, at the structure of our army, and at the distribution of national resources. And the issue of the occupation of Rafah, which the Prime Minister (Benjamin Netanyahu) and the ministers of his government turned into the rock of our existence, through the stupid words of his government, "It will in no way reduce the threat on other fronts."
Ben David believed that Israel has not yet decided whether it will occupy central and western Rafah, which according to Israeli estimates contains alive Israeli hostages, "and any military operation there would pose a danger to them with Israeli army fire or their killing at the hands of their captors."
Ben David pointed out that the occupation of Rafah would affect the fate of the Israeli hostages in other ways. “Rafah is the last military pressure card remaining in Israel’s hands against Hamas. The Israeli government’s refusal to establish an alternative to Hamas’ rule in Gaza makes Rafah the last stick remaining in Israel’s hands in the context of the confrontation with Hamas. After that, Israel will have nothing with which to threaten Hamas.
Israel proposes a deal that includes Hamas releasing female soldiers, civilians, and the elderly, with Tel Aviv realizing that it is impossible for Hamas to release the soldiers and young men, as well as the wounded among them, in the near future.
He considered that whether Israel occupies Rafah or not, “the Israeli army will have to work continuously in Gaza in the coming years to prevent the regrowth of Hamas again,” claiming that Hamas forces “were defeated in the war and are not currently operating as an organized army.”
He added, "But as long as two Israeli military divisions are still mired in Gaza, Israel has no possibility of bringing about a change in the situation in the northern front area," while "ending the intensive military operation in Gaza could open an opportunity for negotiations on a corresponding settlement." Hezbollah,” he said.
He continued, "Any agreement with Hezbollah cannot guarantee the security of the people of the north, but it can give the Israeli army time to prepare for the next war. Our army is exhausted from the eight months of intense fighting and worn out, and before we jump into the next war we must revitalize and strengthen it."
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Israeli analyst talks about a final card in the hands of Netanyahu and his government in the battle of Rafah