As a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel began, The New York Times on Saturday published an assessment of the dramatic changes brought about by the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack on October 7, 2023, the shock waves of which have reshaped the region in unexpected ways.

When Hamas fighters launched their unprecedented assault on the Gaza envelope, Israel launched a devastating war on the Gaza Strip that is still ongoing, destroying Gaza, killing tens of thousands of civilians, most of them women and children, and sending shock waves that have reshaped the Middle East in unexpected ways.

The newspaper believes that powerful alliances have been overturned. Established “red lines” have been crossed, and “a decades-old dictatorship in the heart of the region has collapsed.”

The newspaper assesses that after fifteen months since the flood attacks, and with the start of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas on Sunday, the flood resulted in the following:

Israel: The newspaper claims that Israel has reasserted its military dominance but now faces high diplomatic and domestic costs.

Israel’s leaders treated Hamas-led attacks as an existential threat and were determined to defeat Hamas and weaken its main backer, Iran. But was that the case? Not only did Israel succeed in weakening Hamas in Gaza, it also defeated the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah and dealt a major blow to Iran’s network of allies in the Middle East.

In the region, and in the world of international public opinion, Israel’s successes have been more ambiguous. While its war on Gaza has weakened Hamas, it has not destroyed it, as the government has vowed. On the contrary, the movement has recruited as many as it has lost, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the Atlantic Council on Wednesday.

Israel’s economy has also been hit hard by the war, and Israel’s polarized politics, briefly overlooked when the war began, appear to be back in full swing. Indeed, the country’s international standing is in tatters, threatening its diplomatic goals, such as normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.

Those dynamics could change again with the inauguration on Monday of President-elect Donald Trump, who in his first term pushed for normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel and may seek to revive those efforts.

In the longer term, it is difficult to predict the threats Israel might face from a generation of young Lebanese and Palestinians traumatized by the death and destruction that Israeli bombing has wrought on their families and homes.

Hamas: The newspaper claims that Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar at the time, aimed through the flood attacks to ignite a wider regional war between Israel and Hamas’s allies. But Hamas failed to bring its allies to its side with momentum and effectiveness, and failed to assess how the war might end.

For Palestinian civilians, the future looks bleaker than ever. Israeli bombing and invasion have forced nearly all of Gaza’s population from their homes and killed more than 45,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities, most of them women and children, while Israel has reduced vast swaths of the territory to rubble.

Yahya Sinwar was killed in battle with Israeli soldiers, Israel assassinated Hamas’s top military and political leaders, and “the group’s popularity among Gazans has evaporated,” though U.S. officials estimate that Hamas has recruited nearly as many fighters as it has lost over more than 15 months of fighting.

However, its remaining leaders may claim that its survival is a victory.

Israel insists that Hamas cannot rule the Strip after the war, but has resisted calls for a post-war plan for Gaza. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia now say they will not normalize relations with Israel unless it commits to a path toward Palestinian statehood.

Lebanon: Once the crown jewel of Iran’s axis of resistance, the shattered Hezbollah has loosened its grip on Lebanon. But Israel’s invasion and bombardment have left Lebanon facing billions of dollars in reconstruction costs amid an economic crisis that preceded the war.

Hezbollah, once Lebanon’s dominant political and military force, has suffered a dramatic decline in its fortunes since the 2023 attacks. Israel has killed most of its top leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. Its patron, Iran, has been weakened. Its supply lines through Syria are at risk. And more broadly, the group’s core promise to Lebanon—that it alone can protect the country from Israel—has been undermined.

Years of political deadlock, largely blamed on the militant group, eased enough this month for Lebanon’s parliament to elect a new president and appoint a prime minister backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Despite the strikes, Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters and enjoys support from Lebanon’s large Shiite community. It may find a way to rebuild within Lebanon’s fractured political system.

Syria: The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad last month—one of the most dramatic and unexpected consequences of the events of October 7—has dismantled an authoritarian regime. But the inevitable turmoil that has followed has created the conditions for new power struggles.

For nearly 13 years, Assad has largely contained a rebellion against his family's five-decade grip on power — with help from Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.

But with Moscow focused on its war in Ukraine, and Iran and Hezbollah reeling from Israeli attacks, rebels led by Turkey-backed Islamists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham sensed an opportunity. They surged across Syria, toppling the government in a matter of days.

With Iran and Russia on the back foot, Turkey is now in an excellent position to play a pivotal role in Syria. Moscow hopes to retain some of its naval and air bases, but the fate of its negotiations with HTS is uncertain.

Meanwhile, the United States has maintained a small military presence in Syria to fight the Islamic State terrorist group, and has allied itself with Kurdish-led forces that Turkey considers an enemy. Israel has also seized Syrian territory near the Golan Heights as a buffer zone, and has carried out extensive airstrikes on what it says are Syrian military targets and weapons.

Syria's neighbors and European countries - which host millions of Syrian refugees - are watching closely to see whether the country can achieve stability or descend back into violent chaos.

Iran: According to the newspaper, Iran's powerful network of regional alliances has collapsed, leaving the country vulnerable - and perhaps spurring it to build a nuclear weapon.

Long seen as one of the most influential powers in the Middle East, Iran has emerged from the realignment of the past 15 months greatly weakened. It has effectively lost much of its powerful “axis of resistance,” the network of allies it used to counter the influence of the United States and Israel.

Its closest partner, Hezbollah, is now too weak to pose a serious threat to Israel, and with Assad’s ouster from Syria, Iran has lost its influence over the country that provided a vital supply line for weapons and militants.

Previous red lines that kept the region from all-out war have been erased: Ever since Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was a guest in Tehran, Iran and Israel have carried out direct airstrikes against each other.

It’s unclear exactly where that leaves Tehran. An increasingly vulnerable Iranian government may be forced to weaponize its decades-old nuclear program. U.S. officials have warned that Iran could need just a few weeks to enrich uranium to levels suitable for a bomb.