The Independent newspaper published a report in which it said that turning the Israeli military campaign into a comprehensive invasion of the city of Rafah would endanger the lives of more than a million Palestinians and would not bring Israeli prisoners. The only solution is for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire, otherwise he will have nothing. He exposes him to this war that cannot be won.

The newspaper adds: “Netanyahu was said to be in a dilemma regarding the planned attack to invade the city of Rafah. On the one hand, there is the pressure exerted by President Biden, and the remaining friends of Israel and potential allies in the region, the European Union, Britain, the rest of the international community, the judges of the International Criminal Court, the Pope, and most of the opinion.” “The Israeli public, which is desperately demanding a deal to free the prisoners, and the Palestinian people who live in this part of the Middle East.”

This international coalition calls on it, without exception, not to proceed with the inevitable loss of civilian lives, including children, and to deepen the humanitarian crisis. According to humanitarian relief organizations, this will lead to the spread of diseases and man-made famine, as well as the possibility of a confrontation with Iran, and we must not forget Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the rest of the arms of the resistance axis.

On the other side, we find Netanyahu's extremist nationalist allies and supporters, who are a minority in Israel, and the prime minister's political future is in the short term. His uncomfortable allies have the opportunity to remove him from power, not the United States. Losing his government coalition is a risk he cannot take.

His assumptions are that the best way to survive is to destroy what remains of Gaza, and then declare Hamas' defeat, declare victory, and appeal to the Israeli voter to support him in the elections. Currently, the prisoners are still in the hands of Hamas, and Netanyahu is unpopular and cannot avoid disaster, even though he is skilled at getting out of trouble.

For this reason, he needs a nominal victory, not a war dance, whatever its form. Biden suspended some military aid to Israel, but this will not have an impact on the military reality on the field. As Biden himself said, America will remain behind Israel when needed. Abandoning an ally like Israel is not an option, as Netanyahu knows, as he brazenly abuses America's advantage.

It is not possible to predict the role of Netanyahu's conscience in these calculations, as he responded to the Egyptian ceasefire proposal coldly, because it does not give him the opportunity to win. His goal was clear some time ago, even if he postponed it because of Ramadan.

Israeli forces entered Rafah, even if the ceasefire proved to be a turning point, not in this war, but in the attempt to search for peace, to which all parties must return one day. In the end, the war will stop and the demolition of Gaza will stop, because there is nothing to demolish.

Then we will discover three points: First, there is no guarantee that Hamas or another group will not carry out another attack like October 7. As for the second, relations between Israel and its neighbors in the region, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, will remain difficult. As for the third point, and related to Netanyahu, many prisoners will lose their lives as a result of the Israeli air strikes, an action that has military implications. Netanyahu will have nothing left to show by managing an unwinnable war.

Kim Sengupta, an analyst in the same newspaper, believes that Netanyahu went to Rafah to please his extremist alliance, adding that he prepared himself for Hamas to reject the ceasefire proposal, which would have given him the opportunity to launch his attack on Rafah.

He said that the Israeli government's response to Hamas' announcement shows that it was not ready for the movement to agree to the proposal. Netanyahu's response was that the proposal did not respond to Israeli security concerns, and he said that ending the war while Hamas remains active is something that the State of Israel does not accept.

There is no doubt that the Israeli Prime Minister is a hostage of extremists in his government, such as Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. But he may find himself at some point forced to choose between Biden, Ben Gvir, the families of the prisoners, or Smotrich, says former American diplomat Dennis Ross.