Ahmad Khatib

I stand by what I said about the impossibility of accurately assessing Gazans’ beliefs through face-to-face polls and surveys, particularly during a ferocious and destructive war. Though I can appreciate the efforts of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research to capture Palestinian public sentiments, polling 750 people in Gaza will never truly reveal what the coastal enclave’s displaced and battered population thinks about Hamas, October 7, and critical issues. Nevertheless, here are the key findings as described by the PCPSR (pcpsr.org/en/node/969) – the most obvious thing to me, based on this survey and numerous threads I’ve been piecing together for weeks based on conversations with people on the ground, is that Gazans no longer believe Israel will win the war and increasingly think that Hamas will survive, curtailing peoples’ willingness to speak out against the group and challenge its authority:

1— According to the poll, two findings are worth noting: support for the two-state solution has increased significantly, and support for armed struggle has dropped considerably. However, while dramatic, the increased support for the two-state solution came only from the Gaza Strip, a 27-point increase, while remaining stable in the West Bank. Given three choices for ending the Israeli occupation, the current findings indicate a 17-point decrease in support for armed struggle, a 5-point rise in support for negotiations, and a 5-point increase in support for non-violence. The three-month drop in support for armed struggle comes equally from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

2— With humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip worsening, support for Hamas declines in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as support for armed struggle drops in both places.

3— The sample size of this poll is 1580 adults, of whom 830 were interviewed face to face in the West Bank (in 83 locations) and 750 in the Gaza Strip (in 75 locations).

4— 80% of Gazans report that at least one of their family members has been killed or injured in the war.

5— Support for October 7th remains high, with most believing that it brought the Palestinian-Israeli issue to the center of international attention after years of neglect. The endorsement for the offensive has less to do with support for Hamas and more with the outcomes forcing the Palestinian issue upon the international community.

6— More than 90% believe that Hamas did not commit any atrocities against Israeli civilians during its October 7 offensive. Only one in five Palestinians have seen videos showing atrocities committed by Hamas. Only one-fifth of those who did not see the videos had access to such videos but decided not to see them; the rest reported that the media they watched did not show these videos. The findings show that those who have seen the videos are almost 10 times more likely to think that Hamas fighters committed atrocities on October 7.

7— Most in Rafah (70%) would not seek shelter in Egypt during a Rafah invasion, with most believing that the Egyptian military & police would shoot at them.

8— Less Gazans believe that Israel will win the war, and more believe that Hamas will win - as in, survive the war.

9— More Gazans (60%) believe that Hamas will remain in control of Gaza, and more have expressed support for Hamas's continued rule - both of these points rose together in Gaza.

10— Satisfaction with Sinwar and Hamas remains high in Gaza, with support for Yemen and Qatar increasing, while support for Iran, Jordan, and Egypt remains low.

11— Overall, and in total, only one-third of the Palestinians support Hamas today, an 11-point drop that's equal in Gaza and the West Bank.

12— Support for Marwan Barghouti is high. Abbas continues to poll low, even compared with Hamas's Haniyeh.

13— The resignation of the Shtayyeh Palestinian Authority government is not seen as a sign of reform, and the vast majority reject Mohammad Mustafa's appointment as prime minister and any control Abbas has over a new government.

14— Palestinians’ sense of safety and security in the West Bank keeps dropping, with 9 out of 10 saying they do not feel safe or secure.

15— The majority of Gazans are unable to find adequate food. There are also significant complaints of discrimination in the distribution of humanitarian aid based on political affiliations (mainly that Hamas members and affiliates receive more assistance than the general public).