Veteran Lebanese diplomat Ghassan Salame published a new book covering world developments and crises in the 21st century. Published in French by Fayard, “The Temptation of Mars” provides Salame’s reading of world events, backing it up with his decades of academic, political and diplomatic experience and his wide global network of relations.

Asharq Al-Awsat sat down with Salame to discuss the book, whose, title, he explained, refers to Greek and Roman mythology and implies that several countries, even small ones, have succumbed to the temptation of power and wars.

“The conclusion I reached is that events that have taken place since 1990 cannot be summarized in one term,” he said. “Many have tried, such as Francis Fukuyama, who spoke of ‘the end of history’ and Samuel Huntington described it as the ‘clash of civilizations.’ But these descriptions are not enough.”

“After much examination and thought, I found that the period stretching from 1990 until 2024 can in fact be divided into two contradictory periods. The first, I called ‘the phase of wishes’, extends from 1990 to 2006, and the second, ‘the phase of disappointment’, extends from 2006 until this day,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I based my assessment on six standards: The spread of democracy, globalization, the technological revolution, culture, absence of a basis to resort to force and finally, nuclear power.” The comprehensive review found that the first third of the century was filled with positive elements, but not so much in the second part.

Explaining the “basis to resort to force”, he said the 1991 war on Kuwait was waged with the backing of 12 United Nations Security Council resolutions that allowed 65 countries to take part in the liberation of the country.

George Bush Sr. was asked at the time why he wouldn’t forge ahead towards Baghdad, to which he replied that the resolutions give him the right to restore the sovereignty of Kuwait, not destroy the sovereignty of Iraq, continued Salame.

“The war waged by George W. Bush against Iraq in 2003 was completely different. It was not based on any legal foundation, went ahead without a UN resolution, did not lead to the formation of a large international coalition and its objectives were oscillating. At first, the goal was to destroy the alleged weapons of mass destruction. It was then followed with the goal of eliminating a dangerous dictator and spreading democracy. In the end, it failed in creating a stable political entity,” he added.

“I believe that the ‘original sin’ in the American-British attack on Iraq was that it paved the way for similar practices in other countries. We have seen Russia use the same excuse to attack Georgia in 2008. President Vladimir Putin used it again to attack Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022,” he noted.

“We have seen other countries, such as Iran, Türkiye and Israel, not hesitate in using force. Even small countries like Rwanda are carrying out military operations in several African countries without any legal basis,” he remarked.

On the nuclear level, Salame cited the 1995 indefinite extension of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and several countries, led by the United States and Russia, agreed to decrease their nuclear arsenal. They cooperated together to tackle the fallout from the Chernobyl disaster to ensure that it never happens again.

Even more, four former US secretaries of state, including George Shultz and Henry Kissinger, called for a world without nuclear weapons, added Salame.

“But what do we have today? Britain is spending billions to modernize its nuclear weapons. France is doing the same. China wants to double is nuclear warheads from 1,500 to 3,000 before 2030. Putin, meanwhile, isn’t backing down from his threat to use nuclear arms,” he stated.

The US also wants to increase its nuclear arsenal. Even ministers in a small country such as Israel have threatened to drop a nuclear bomb on Gaza, he noted to Asharq Al-Awsat.

What used to be a red line when it came to nuclear weapons has been gradually chipped away over the past ten years, he said.

Several poles

Commenting on the debate about whether the world is still unipolar, bipolar, multipolar, or even non-polar, Salame said there are several sources of power and power hubs, but they are unbalanced. Some countries have started to make the shift towards become a pole, such as China and India, but the US still has a wide margin ahead of them. On paper, it is the greatest and top pole, but it is not the only one.

Salame stressed that the US has vast financial and military means, but its decision-making is severely unfocused, reflecting inner turmoil.

Moreover, the US does not want to become involved in long wars, which is increasing pressure on its decision-making power that is in turn, leading to pressure from the public. So, it has turned to military withdrawals as a means to appease the public, such as what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. The United States’ points of weakness are overshadowing its financial superiority in the world order, said Salame.

China, the US’ main rival, has achieved a leap forward in its military might in the past 30 years. It has increased its nuclear warheads and developed its weapons, but they remain inferior to western capabilities. India has doubled its military budget four times in the past 20 years. In Europe, Germany and Italy are also aiming to increase their military budget. “We mustn’t forget North Korea that is spending big on bolstering its forces,” he added.

“So, we have several players aspiring to have influence on the world order, while the US is no longer capable of imposing its views except in certain cases,” stated Salame.

“We must be aware of Washington’s problems with its allies. As for its rivals, the issues are clear: It fears the rise of China and is doing everything it can to reign it in and prevent it from emerging as a global power.” Salame also noted that the map of arms sales was changing. South Korea is selling weapons to Poland and North Korea is selling to Russia. The numbers are massive. South Korea has topped France as a weapons exporter. Türkiye is now exporting drones to 50 countries around the world and Iran is sending drones to Russia.

So, the global arms market is rapidly changing. “I can conclude that the post-Cold War phase is not over yet. The phase has not yet formed a stable and permanent reality, but as it stands, the US will remain the top superpower in the world, while its ability to rein in its allies and contain its rivals wanes,” stressed Salame.