Hebrew Newspaper: Area C will never be Israeli

Since 2009, both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have been waging a struggle to impose field facts in Area C, even though the Oslo Accords defined its status: Area C is the areas in the West Bank outside Areas A and B. “With the exception of issues that will be discussed during the final negotiations, they will be transferred to the Palestinian Authority gradually, based on this agreement.” Israel is preparing with all its might for the conflict over these areas through several tools, the most important of which is the recent transfer of the “Civil Administration” to the control of Bezalel Smotrich as minister in the Ministry of Defense. 

In 2009, the Palestinians put forward the “Fayyad Plan” in order to establish Palestinian infrastructure and institutions, in preparation for the establishment of a de facto Palestinian state in all areas of the West Bank, with political and financial support estimated at more than half a billion euros, provided by the countries of the European Union.

Our research addresses the issue of Israeli versus Palestinian control in Area C in 4 areas - demographic, geographic, economic and social (mass support). On the demographic level, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of Israelis living in the West Bank rose from 311,300 in 2010, to 491,548 in 2023 - an increase of 58%. 

Despite the presence of a “full right” government, the increase in 2023 was 13,345 people, 4% less than the annual average in this period. The number of Palestinians in Area C rose from 77,220 in 2010 to 354,000 this year - a 504% increase. This factor explains the dramatic decline in the number of Israelis living in Area C. It also became clear that in 2010, the percentage of Jews in Area C was 81.6%, and it declined in 2023 to 58.1%.

This reality is the result of several factors: The continuing decline in the population growth of Israelis living beyond the Green Line - from 5% at the beginning of the period to 2.7% at its end. As for the immigration balance, which includes immigration to Area C, there is a decline from 4,160 Jews in 2010 to a few hundred in the last four years. Even in 2020, there was negative migration (that is, more Israelis left the area than moved to live in it) and the opposite Palestinian process was observed: a significant migration from Areas A and B to Areas C.

On the geographical level, after the “legalization” of 34 illegal settlement outposts during this period - a small number of which were defined as towns or independent institutions, and most of them as neighborhoods in existing settlements - the number of settlements reached 127 settlements, and the number of illegal outposts reached 121. epicenter. 

In contrast, the number of homes belonging to Palestinians increased (from one house to dozens). The number was 12,522 in 2010, and doubled to reach approximately 28,000 in 2023. This is despite the fact that Israel demolished 8,000 homes in the same period. The total Israeli built-up area, which includes settlements, outposts, industrial areas, military bases, and crossings, reached 80 thousand dunums this year (only 2.4% of Area C), while the Palestinian built-up area in Area C reached 148 thousand dunums (4.44%). 

On the economic level, two opposite trends can be noted. Due to the continuous increase in the proportion of the Haredi population among the settlers (39% today), the number of Israelis allocated to “Eshkol 1” - the lowest on the social index scale - is rising, and has reached approximately half of the community. At the same time, the socio-economic rate of all towns in the West Bank has risen in recent years, as a result of unprecedented government aid in the form of various grants, and today it has reached 4.3 on the socio-economic scale. 

The annual increase in the number of Israeli residents in the West Bank - which in recent years has been based, for the most part, on natural growth, of which the Haredi community contributed 43% - indicates that this trend of weakness and increasing polarization between the Haredim and the national religious and secularists will remain prevalent and distinguish settlers, and will require increased investment in state support.

It is true that the Palestinian community is weaker than the settlers on the economic level, but the Palestinian geographical spread within Area C occurs, essentially, thanks to the private ownership of the Palestinians in the majority of the areas, and also due to external support from Arab countries and European Union countries.

The Israeli policy regarding Area C failed, and not only on the practical level: the attempt to “settle in the hearts” within Israeli society in order to normalize life in the West Bank as an integral part of the State of Israel - failed. Despite the development of more than 100 cultural, tourist and religious resorts in the West Bank, and despite the transformation of the college located in the heart of the West Bank into Ariel University, and despite the obliteration of the green line in official maps and educational textbooks in schools, and despite the overwhelming support from the political elite for the settlement project, Israeli society, for the most part, still has reservations about the policy of supporting settlements.

First, even after the October 7 attack, the Jewish community, in its majority, prefers separation from the Palestinians (55%) over annexation, or the continuation of the existing policy. 

Secondly, Israeli society is cautious about the privileges that settlements receive in exchange for towns inside Israel. When we presented the per capita budget of the local authorities in the West Bank in the year 2023, it turned out to be 3,200 shekels, compared to 2,400 inside Israel, and only a quarter of the Jewish public supports the preference of the local authorities in the West Bank. When we compared, we noticed that for development towns, settlement budgets are higher, with a gap that has been growing over the years - support for this policy is declining, and now includes less than a quarter of the Jewish community in Israel.

From here, it can be concluded that the recent Israeli governments have tried to carry out a camouflage operation, not only against the Palestinians, but also against Israeli society, which, in its majority, opposes the policy of favoring settlements and the violent attempt to control lands in the West Bank.

The shock that occurred on October 7 was an opportunity to reexamine Israeli policy towards the Palestinians and learn from the mistakes of the past. Instead of waging a messianic and losing war over a vast area inhabited by Palestinians who will never be part of the Jewish and democratic State of Israel, and instead of continuing to waste state resources on historically very failed housing projects - the current crisis should be used to change direction. 

If Israel will return to the commitments it signed in the interim agreement; If you treat Area C as a temporary land reserve, it will form part of the Palestinian state in the future. If it adopts broad security thinking, this means ensuring the state’s existence as a safe, democratic state with a Jewish majority; If it wants to return to developing the Negev in general, and the Western Negev in particular, such as the Galilee - it can manage a conflict through a joint effort with all of society in Israel, and stop being captive to a goal that cannot be achieved in the first place.

Source: Haaretz