ARAB AND WORLD
Sun 18 Feb 2024 7:54 pm - Jerusalem Time
Egyptian estimates that Netanyahu will continue the war on Gaza, even if Hamas backs down from its conditions
Sources familiar with the Egyptian and regional movements to reach an agreement to stop the war on Gaza and a prisoner exchange deal said, “It seems that the internal political differences in the Israeli government have moved to the regional circles working to reach an agreement.”
An Egyptian source said, in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, that “a high-ranking Israeli security figure affiliated with the camp of the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, made contacts with Egyptian officials, following the faltering of the recent negotiations that Cairo received, due to Netanyahu preventing security delegations from going to Cairo to continue negotiating the controversial points regarding the Paris Framework Agreement and Hamas’ response to it.”
The source revealed that "the Israeli security official was keen to stress that progress in any negotiating path to stop the war on Gaza is mainly linked to the position of the Prime Minister, and not to the positions of other parties in the war government or the security services."
The source said, "The communications came after Egyptian officials concerned with the mediation file communicated with the minister in the war government, Benny Gantz, during the past few days, as part of Cairo's efforts to advance efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement."
Cairo contacted Hezbollah to calm the scene and prevent it from sliding into a widespread confrontation
He added, "It appears that the contacts made by Egypt and other regional parties with Gantz angered Netanyahu, who sensed that there were attempts to push Gantz to the forefront, in the face of Netanyahu's insistence on adopting an approach that leads to expanding the circle of conflict and confrontation in the region."
The source continued, "As part of Cairo's efforts at the present time, communication has been made with the Lebanese Hezbollah, in the wake of the recent escalation on the northern front, in order to calm the scene and prevent it from sliding into a wide confrontation." He revealed that Cairo "assured Hezbollah officials of continuing pressure on the Israeli side to prevent the invasion of Rafah, as well as to prevent the expansion of the confrontation on the Lebanese front."
The Egyptian source explained that “the day after the quadrilateral Cairo meeting (last Tuesday), which included the head of the Egyptian intelligence service, Major General Abbas Kamel, the Qatari prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, the heads of the Mossad, David Barnea, the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, and the director of the CIA, William Burns witnessed a call between Abbas Kamel and Burns, in order for Washington to play a role in moving Netanyahu’s position and putting pressure on him in parallel with the role played by the mediators with Hamas in order to quickly reach an agreement.”
The source pointed out that "the current situation is not related to the conditions presented, as much as it is related to Netanyahu's position on the idea of negotiating in general, and reaching an agreement at the present time."
Netanyahu wants to continue the war in Gaza
He stressed that "Netanyahu is unwilling to reach an agreement, even if Hamas announces its withdrawal from its conditions, because he wants to end the Gaza scene with a massacre and more blood, to present an image of absolute victory in the minds of the Israeli street, in a way that makes it forget its political and security failure."
The source added: “What encourages Netanyahu to go ahead with his vision and escape forward is that none of the Western powers and even Washington have shown real intentions to restrain Tel Aviv, other than the fact that there are parties in the occupation army that support Netanyahu’s approach to circumvent the military failure and defeat that befell them on July 7.” Last October.
Hamas is committed to a positive approach
For his part, a Hamas leader said that the movement "remains committed to a positive approach to the mediators' proposals and efforts for a ceasefire." He stressed, at the same time, that “it is possible to respond to some of the proposals put forward in the negotiations, but there are clear constants that can never be undone, and we stressed them before the mediators went to the Paris meeting, which are a comprehensive ceasefire, Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza, and reconstruction."
He explained that "what is being leaked in the Hebrew media, regarding taking a step toward negotiations to reach a prisoner exchange agreement and then taking a step back, has the main goal of escaping international and internal pressures, and not portraying the Israeli government as obstructing the agreement."
The leader revealed that “the resistance is currently being subjected to regional and Arab pressures, in order to make concessions and back off some of the conditions it adheres to,” noting at the same time that “these pressures come despite those parties’ conviction of the justice of the proposals put forward by the resistance.” The importance of the cards held by the resistance, particularly the prisoners, as well as its ability to withstand and confront despite the long period of aggression.”
Yesterday, Saturday, the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, said that the movement “responded in a positive spirit with the mediators in order to stop the aggression against our people, end the siege, and allow the flow of aid and reconstruction, but Israel continues to maneuver and procrastinate.”
He stressed, in a statement, that the resistance "will not accept anything less than a complete cessation of aggression, the withdrawal of the Israeli army outside the Gaza Strip, the lifting of the siege, the return of the displaced, especially to the northern Gaza Strip, an end to the starvation policy, and a commitment to reconstruction."
In this context, the Palestinian politician, academic, and former member of the Knesset, Jamal Zahalka, said in an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, “The ball is now in the Israeli court, and there are severe differences in the war council between Netanyahu and Gantz. The former practically does not want the deal, but he also does not want to show that he does not want it, so he makes statements to the families of detainees in the Gaza Strip that he is making efforts, and that he is ready for a deal, if this deal does not tie the hands of the occupation in military operations.”
He pointed out that “Gantz and Minister in the War Council, Gadi Eisenkot, want there to be a deal, because of the pressure of the families, and the security establishment is also interested in a deal, because the Israeli army is exhausted and wants to rest a little and prepare itself to invade Rafah, and it is actually preparing for this direction, because "There is no indication that Israel will not overrun Rafah."
He explained, “There is an opinion within the security establishment that the issue should be postponed until after Ramadan (starting in the second week of next March) because it is a very charged period, especially in the city of Jerusalem and also in other places, and this will have repercussions and open new fronts as well as concern.” "For the Israeli forces. This is why I see that the Israeli military establishment and the security establishment want there to be no fighting during this period, and this is why they are talking about a 35-day truce, which is less than what they committed to in Paris."
Zahalka continued: “Israeli interactions may result in approval - in the end - of the first phase of this deal, but Israel will not, under any circumstances, accept a commitment to a permanent ceasefire.”
In his turn, Samer Mukhaimer, professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, “Egyptian and Qatari efforts are still continuing, because there is no other alternative.” He added, "The continuation of these efforts comes in order to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Rafah, if Israel launches a ground invasion of the region," noting that "they are also continuing with American blessing, as Washington is pushing for a temporary ceasefire, leading to the release of the hostages, but this does not mean that the efforts will be crowned with success.”
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Egyptian estimates that Netanyahu will continue the war on Gaza, even if Hamas backs down from its conditions