Turkish writer Hamza Rifaat says that Israel cannot launch a ground attack on Rafah because such an action would lead to increased pressure on it from the International Court of Justice, threaten to undermine the Camp David Accords, undermine the search for detainees, and weaken the possibility of regional normalization.

Rifaat mentioned in his article on the “TRT World” website that the attacks launched by Israel on Rafah this week prompted South Africa - which had previously submitted a petition to the International Court of Justice regarding the acts of genocide committed by Israel in Gaza - to request intervention again.

He pointed out that despite international pressure and the ruling issued by the court, the administration of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu challenges this and continues its quest to achieve “complete victory,” commenting that this is a kind of fantasy, and that Netanyahu and his war cabinet and advisors are ignoring many variables that make “ Victory is impossible.

Variables on the ground

Rifaat explained that these changes include the swelling of the population in Rafah from a few hundred thousand people to 1.4 million Palestinians, and that carrying out the ground attack will result in large human losses among civilians in order to kill a few Hamas activists.

He added that even if we take the matter seriously, Israel will operate in an area where it is difficult to determine the locations of the four brigades of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) that it claimed were present there, with heavy losses expected for the Israeli forces. More Israeli military deaths would contribute to Netanyahu's popularity at home, and could thwart the attack halfway to the city.

Detainees held by the resistance

The writer continued to mention the reasons why carrying out a ground attack was unlikely, and addressed the issue of releasing Israeli detainees held by the Palestinian resistance, saying that any attack would jeopardize the efforts undertaken by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, and leave the fate of these detainees in limbo.

Threat of the Camp David Accords

He added that the recent attack on Rafah led Egypt to mobilize its forces along its border with Israel with the deployment of 40 tanks, including rapid fortifications on the Sinai side, along with the threat to suspend the Camp David Accords.

He referred to Egypt's warning to suspend the agreements if Israel occupied the Philadelphia Corridor or the narrow strip of land that passes through its borders with the Gaza Strip. Another unacceptable outcome for Egypt is that the border with Israel will be breached and this will cause an influx of Palestinians into the country, which constitutes a test for regional peace and threatens to upend the Camp David Accords, as these agreements depend on their assurance that Egyptian national security will not be threatened.

Finally, the writer emphasized that the ground attack on Rafah jeopardizes Israel's efforts for regional normalization, noting that Jordan and Saudi Arabia warned Israel against launching an attack on Rafah.

Source: Turkish press+ Aljazeera