The Hamas movement is still studying the Egyptian-Qatari proposal regarding the next phase of the prisoner exchange deal, as its leaders stress the principle of a complete and final cessation of the war in the Gaza Strip, in an attempt to ensure that the Israeli aggression against Gaza does not resume after the completion of the planned first phase, which includes releasing 35 elderly and injured women and men during a six-week truce.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz says that on Thursday, February 1, the expanded security ministerial council in Israel discussed the proposal put forward by the mediators, but the two sides did not reach a final agreement on some details, such as the “key,” that is, the ratio of the number of liberated hostages to the number of prisoners. The Palestinians released in the deal, as well as their identities.

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ministers from the Likud Party and the far right continue to present a unified approach, which is that Israel will not stop the war and will not release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, which hinders any possible agreement, according to Haaretz.

Biden offers Netanyahu a lifeline, but the latter rejects it

The Hebrew newspaper says that the Egyptian-Qatari proposal has the support of the United States, which is working to promote the proposal as part of a larger, comprehensive regional deal. In addition to resolving the hostage issue, the American move means that such a deal may include the formation of a new government in the Gaza Strip, which will include the Palestinian Authority, renewed efforts to revive the two-state solution, normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the formation of a strong regional axis that confronts Iran.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is scheduled to arrive in the region on Sunday, February 4, to promote this initiative.

The American administration works within a restrictive and narrow time frame that the Israelis do not understand. First, Arab countries are putting pressure on them to stop the war in Gaza before the month of Ramadan, which begins in the second week of March. Second, the ambitious regional plan must begin to advance during the spring, before the US presidential race enters its final months before the November elections.

“Biden’s Middle East Doctrine” fails in the face of “Netanyahu’s Doctrine”

President Joe Biden's team has embarked on a long media campaign among senior American media commentators in order to present this initiative, which has already been dubbed in the media as the "Biden Doctrine for the Middle East." Although the plan is very complex, full of different elements that depend on the good faith of all parties (a doubtful prospect), the White House is trying to be optimistic.

Washington assumes that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is interested in signing a defense agreement with the United States, along with a normalization agreement with Israel, before the November elections.

In parallel, the United States views the regional initiative as a potential lifeline for Netanyahu, whose internal standing was greatly weakened after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, but at the present time, Netanyahu is adopting a contrary and stubborn position, and presents himself as ready to do everything necessary to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state and to thwart any attempt to include the Palestinian Authority or others in the solution “the day after the end of the war” in the Gaza Strip, in clear defiance of the American administration.

America does not want escalation in the region

In this context, it is important to look at the targets that the United States avoided bombing in response to an attack carried out by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, in which three American soldiers were killed by a suicide drone on the Jordanian-Syrian border. The United States did not bomb targets on Iranian territory, repeating its claims that it is not interested in a comprehensive military confrontation with Iran. It was keen to issue early warnings so that Iran could evacuate senior officers who might be injured in these air strikes.

The attacks focused on command and control centers, logistics routes and weapons depots. This was very similar to Israeli strikes against similar targets (a similar attack occurred in the Damascus area on Sunday, February 4), although the US attack was larger in scope.

The morning before the attack, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reportedly spoke by phone with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

The Biden administration sent a message indicating that this is not the end of the reprisals, and that it will carry out more strikes, and at the same time the militias responded with special attacks against US military bases in Iraq.

The Israeli defense establishment was aware of the nature of the attack planned by the United States in advance, but it hopes that the Americans will intensify their reactions if the pro-Iranian militias and the Houthis continue their attacks, as Haaretz says. During the war on the Gaza Strip, there were reports of a relatively large number of Israeli air strikes against Iranian targets in Syria, in which a number of senior members of the Revolutionary Guard were killed.