Israeli Writer: The kidnapped deal has not been completed, and the conflict in Israel over it is at its peak

By Amos Harel

This morning, a lot of caution was required, as despite the optimistic forecasts published by sources in the United States, Egypt and Qatar, it appears that the deal to release the kidnapped people has not yet been completed. 

Last week, real progress occurred after the United States and the two Arab mediating countries presented an agreed-upon proposal regarding the two parties, Israel and Hamas, but the distance to the negotiations is still long, and today there is no indication that the contacts will end in an agreement, or a clear timetable for achieving it. .

Before concluding the Shalit deal in 2011, Egyptian intelligence personnel were keen to hold “close conversations” with the two parties in Cairo, and on that day the representatives of Israel and Hamas refused to be in the same room, and stayed in separate floors of the hotel, and mediators moved between the two delegations to reach an agreed formula for the deal.

When we hear about the start of a close round of negotiations, this is an indication of real progress in the negotiations, and it is difficult to finalize a complex agreement without the physical presence of delegations in Cairo, while Sinwar is hiding in the tunnels and does not have permanent contact with the outside world.

The first important step towards a new deal took place at the weekend at the Paris summit, without the presence of Hamas, as a series of proposals were presented by the mediators to the Israeli delegates.

In the meantime, it is not in the interest of both parties to enter into a dispute with the mediators; Israel needs them to advance the deal, and Hamas needs them more to secure its needs (money from Qatar, and entry and exit from the Gaza Strip via Egypt). In Paris, the mechanisms and framework to advance the agreement have been formulated, and the game of accusing failure, led implicitly by the mediators, has begun. It is not in the interest of Israel and Hamas to appear as if they are working to thwart the deal.

In recent days, details about the deal began to leak out, some of them coming from Israel, most likely the Prime Minister's Office, and this was a process of several stages: first, initial lines were published warning of the deal ("thousands of 'saboteurs' released"), and after that, Channel 12 published a report stating that a large majority of the public was against the initial lines. Then came Netanyahu’s statement during his visit to the Eli settlement (“We will not liberate thousands of ‘terrorists’”). Finally, Netanyahu held a meeting with the families of the kidnapped in which he said: “All efforts to release "The kidnapped persons will remain secret, and there are great chances of their success."

Netanyahu is trying to control all stages of the process, and there is suspicion that he is not in a hurry to advance the deal for fear of finding himself on a collision course with the far-right wing of his coalition...

This week, far-right ministers, along with some Likud ministers, joined those publicly criticizing the plan. According to the leaked details, what is meant is a deal with several stages; initially, the “humanitarian” cases among the kidnapped are released, including 35-40 women (it is not clear if they mean kidnapped female soldiers) and elderly people, and this part will last 6 weeks. In the coming stages, kidnapped persons and the bodies of Israelis will be released, while the soldiers will eventually be released. What is meant here is that the matter will be completed in two or three stages, over a period of approximately two months, during which a complete ceasefire will take place. In contrast to previous demands, it currently appears that Hamas is not demanding a complete withdrawal of Israeli army forces from the Gaza Strip in order to approve the deal, or as a condition for its implementation.

Hamas is holding 136 kidnapped Israelis and foreigners, and the Israeli army announced the death of 30 of them based on evidence collected. It is plausible that the actual death toll is much higher. In the negotiations, no number was determined, and it is not known how many prisoners Israel will release in exchange. Every kidnapped person, and it is reasonable that the number of Palestinian prisoners who will be released in the final stages of the deal will increase. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is still able to fulfill his promises (not to stop the fighting, and not to release thousands of prisoners, at least in the first phase). But continuing to implement the deal will increase his political difficulties with the right wing of the government, and also with a section of his voters. In the background, Netanyahu faces a political threat, and he continues to talk about the idea of a major political deal that includes normalization with Saudi Arabia, which in his opinion entails risks.

Thomas Friedman, a journalist very close to President Biden, estimated yesterday in the "New York Times" that the American administration will soon present a new doctrine in the Middle East, the basis of which is to push for a Palestinian state and an American-Saudi defense alliance (along with normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv) and a "strong position" confronting Iran. What are the chances of moving forward with this initiative with Israeli approval as long as Netanyahu is in power? It seems very small.

Netanyahu hopes to safely pass the winter session of the Knesset, which ends in two months, without storms leading to the downfall of his impossible war coalition, and his method for survival is based on publishing conflicting promises and constant ambiguity about his intentions. In the street and in the government, it becomes difficult for him to achieve his goals.