Israeli analysts unanimously agreed today, Friday, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to thwart the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas, which was crystallized during a meeting between the heads of the Israeli, American, and Egyptian intelligence services and the Prime Minister of Qatar in Paris, last Sunday.

According to the military analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Amos Harel, "It appears that the upcoming deal to free the kidnapped persons is still unfinished." Despite the optimistic expectations of American, Egyptian and Qatari sources, “there is now no certainty that the contacts will end with understandings or even a clear timetable for their implementation.”

Harel pointed out that it is difficult to reach an agreement on a prisoner exchange deal without the actual and simultaneous presence of delegations from Israel and Hamas in Cairo.

He added that some of the leaks about the deal in the media “sourced from Israel and from the office of Prime Minister Netanyahu.”

It was a multi-stage step: beginning with publishing a deterrent plan for the deal - such as releasing thousands of saboteurs; Then the poll published by Channel 12 indicated that a large majority of the Israeli public opposes such a deal. And then Netanyahu's statement that 'We will not liberate thousands of terrorists; Finally, Netanyahu met with the families of the kidnapped and said that “the more the liberation effort is kept secret, the greater the chances of its success.”

Harel continued, “Netanyahu is trying to control all stages of this process, and suspicions are rising that he is not in a hurry to advance a deal, because such a step would put him on a collision course with the extreme right wing of his coalition. He ignores that the heads of the security apparatus, whom he sent to Paris, They had coordinated in advance with the mediators, and many details of the deal were crystallized with Israel’s approval.”

Far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich and from Likud joined the public criticism of the deal. According to Harel, "No equation has yet been agreed upon in the negotiations. It is not known how many Palestinian prisoners Israel will release for each one of the kidnapped. It is likely that the number of Palestinians liberated will increase significantly in the final stages of the deal."

He added: “It seems that Netanyahu can still fulfill his promises that he made this week, not to stop the war completely and not to release thousands of terrorists, at least in the first phase. But the continued implementation of the deal will increase the political difficulty for him in the right wing of the government, as well as for a section of his constituency in government.” 

Harel pointed out that, “In the background, he is also struggling against a political threat. Although the prime minister continues to flirt with the idea of a major political deal, including normalization with Saudi Arabia, for him there are also risks in it. The United States and Britain are considering official recognition of a Palestinian state.” This is a clear means of pressure on Israel, and it has not been exercised against any other Israeli prime minister.”

For his part, Nahum Barnea, a political analyst in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, pointed out that “Netanyahu is fighting a complex battle, and the goal is to thwart the deal without anyone being able to accuse him of thwarting it. He is not prepared to pay the price of the deal or the price of thwarting it.”

Barnea also stressed that “Netanyahu is not only fighting for the price he demands to pay in the deal, but mainly for the price he will have to pay if the deal is implemented. They talk (in press reports) about the number of prisoners who will be freed, their quality, and their danger. They talk about integrating "Hamas has a future Palestinian government. These are not small prices for Israel's security. But what worries Netanyahu, perhaps primarily, is the political price. His government, his survival, and his legacy will be in danger."

Barnea referred to how Biden's post-war plan for Gaza emerged. “The events of October 7 led to conclusions in Washington that were completely different from those that were expressed in the Kriya in Tel Aviv (the headquarters of the Ministry of Security and the Army). The weakness shown by the Israeli army that morning and its absolute dependence on American emergency supplies led to the conclusion that Israel could not cope on its own. Netanyahu's continued abstention from making decisions reinforces this conclusion. Its American friends are obligated to decide in its place and for it."

In turn, Tal Shalev, a political analyst on the Walla website, said that the slogan “until absolute victory” in the war on Gaza, which Netanyahu repeats, comes in order to repel “internal and external pressures in order to advance another kidnapped deal and make a decision about what will happen in Gaza the day after the end of the war.

She added, "Netanyahu decided to escalate the victory campaign in an attempt to recover from his collapse in public opinion since the October 7 massacre. Whenever he repeats 'victory', he hopes that the words disaster, failure, calamity, or defeat that Israel suffered under his leadership will be obscured in public consciousness." 

She pointed out that this campaign "does not succeed in deceiving public opinion, and his support rates continue to deteriorate. But other than simple awareness engineering, the pledge to fight until 'absolute victory' has a clear political goal, which is to procrastinate as much as possible and prevent elections that might pose a threat to his seat."

Shalev continued, “Netanyahu, who built his political career on fighting terrorism, knows that in history there is no absolute victory over terrorist organizations like Hamas, whose goal is to remain as terrorist and resistance organizations. But the pledge of absolute victory guarantees that the war will not end soon, and delays the next day’s political scenarios which will knock on his door, from the dismantling of the war cabinet with Gantz and Eisenkot, through the investigation into responsibility for the October 7 failure with an official investigation committee, and ending with the protest movements that are preparing to return to the streets to demand new elections.”

She added, "The pledge of absolute victory gives hope to his extremist partners on the right, who dream and dance to the impact of reoccupying and establishing settlements in the Gaza Strip, and ignites his supporters who fear that a deal to free the kidnapped will herald the end of the war."