The solitude of the genocide

By Dominique Vidal

Sometimes a photograph speaks louder than long speeches. This is the case: it represents Benjamin Netanyahu addressing the United Nations General Assembly last fall – in this case facing an overwhelming majority of empty seats. There is no better way to symbolize the loneliness of the Israeli Prime Minister in the midst of the Gaza War, which he hoped would save him.This is not an optical effect: within the UN enclosure, Israel has never been so isolated. Certainly, the United States has, on several occasions, used its right of veto to spare its “strategic ally” condemnation from the Security Council, or even sanctions.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter – one of the most powerful tools at his disposal – to urge the Security Council to help end the carnage in the Palestinian enclave ravaged by war.

Faced with the blocking of the Security Council by the United States, an emergency meeting of the General Assembly was therefore convened on December 12. Before the vote, General Assembly President Dennis Francis said the world was witnessing an "unprecedented collapse" of a humanitarian system "in real time" and said it was high time to establish an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. “We have one priority – just one –: saving lives,” he stressed. “We must stop this violence now ([1])”. The Assembly therefore adopted – by 153 votes for, 10 against and 23 abstentions, more than the required two-thirds majority – a resolution which, in addition to a cease and desist -immediate humanitarian fire, demanded the unconditional release of all hostages and the guarantee of humanitarian access. It also reiterated the demand that all parties respect their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, “particularly with regard to the protection of civilians”

A few days later, Israel suffered another diplomatic defeat. On December 19, 2023, the General Assembly adopted, as every year, a resolution supporting “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and to a state” by 172 votes in favor, 10 abstentions and only 4 against: Israel, the United States , Micronesia and Nauru[2]…

Without forgetting the first response of the International Court of Justice to the complaint for “genocide” filed by South Africa and supported by around sixty States by calling on Israel, on January 26, to take “all measures in its power to prevent and punish direct and public incitement to commit genocide[3]”

This quasi-UN consensus reflects the accelerated evolution of public opinions vis-à-vis Israel. The latter declined massively for the first time in 1982, after the invasion of Lebanon and the massacre of the Palestinian camps of Sabra and Chatila, south of Beirut. Anger grew further with the repression of the First Intifada (from December 1987) then the Second (from September 2000). Without forgetting the incessant Israeli offensives against the Gaza Strip: 20o8-2009, 20112, 2014, 2021. This time, tens, even hundreds of thousands of demonstrators flooded into the streets of the capitals of all continents : from Washington to London, from Berlin to Montreal, from Dublin to Cairo, from Saana, and Tunis to Rabat, from Beirut to Amman That the most massive crowds marched in the major Arab cities will only surprise those who believed in the cause Palestinian buried under the Abraham Accords.

But never has the gap between leaders and ruled seemed as deep in the Maghreb as in Machrek. Thus the latest survey by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (CAREP) carried out among 8,000 respondents in January 2024 and published under the title “Arab Punic opinion and Israel's war against Gaza[4]” confirms -the massive refusal (89%) of any normalization with Israel at the expense of the Palestinian people: only 8% of respondents in sixteen Arab countries “would support diplomatic recognition of Israel by their state”, 84% would “oppose” it ". And for good reason: 92% believe that “the Palestinian cause concerns all Arabs and not just the Palestinian people”. Concerning the current war in Gaza, 69% of respondents said they support “the population of Gaza and Hamas”, 90% of whom believe that it is “different from the Islamic State”.

This survey also reveals a hardening of Arab opinion regarding United States policy in the region: 76% present it as “more negative than before the war”; In particular, 68% of respondents consider their commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state “not at all serious”. In the same spirit, 79%, 78% and 75% of respondents evaluate the positions of France, the United Kingdom and Germany negatively. As for the debate over the legitimacy of the Hamas attack; 67% believe that it is a “legitimate resistance operation”, while 19% assess it as a “legitimate resistance operation tainted with some errors” and only 5% consider it an “illegitimate operation” .

This reduces the room for maneuver of Arab regimes wishing to join the process launched in 2020 by Donald Trump. This was undoubtedly one of the main objectives of the terrorist operation of October 7: to prevent the conclusion of the Israeli-Saudi negotiations then underway.

Without doubt it is in his own country that Netanyahu is most alone. Unlike all previous wars, a large majority of public opinion supports the army's action while demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister. It is true that the attack of October 7 occurred against the backdrop of nine months of gigantic demonstrations against the "coup d'état" represented by the justice reform project: hence the massive rejection of his inspiration. From the beginning of October, 86% of Israelis – and even 79% of voters in the current coalition judged the leader of Likud to be responsible for the catastrophe([5]). And since then, Likud has never fallen so low: in the latest polls in the event of an early election, it would lose 17 of the 32 seats obtained on November 1, 2023. Its allies of the supremacist far right would only obtain 7 deputies instead of 14. And even the ultra-orthodox Party Sephardic Shas would only have 9 of its 11 seats left. So much so that the current coalition lost the majority with 44 seats instead of 64 today[6].

The most worrying thing is elsewhere: 28% of Israelis would consider leaving their country if the justice reform was implemented[7]. This is a clear acceleration of a phenomenon which has already seen hundreds of thousands of Israeli Jews settle permanently abroad.

[1]  https://news.un.org/fr/story/2023/12/1141572

[2]  https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4030703?ln=fr

[3] https://www.icj-cij.org/.../192-20240126-ord-01-00-fr.pdf

[4] https://www.carep-paris.org/.../Enquete_opinion_arabe...

([5]) Haaretz, 17 octobre 2023. 

[6] Site de Radio J ,12 janvier 2024 .

[7] Site du Times of Israel, 26 juillet 2023.