ARAB AND WORLD
Wed 31 Jan 2024 6:58 am - Jerusalem Time
“Waiting for Hamas’ response.” A plan for a ceasefire in Gaza
Reuters quoted "informed sources" as saying that the Hamas movement is studying a three-stage plan for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that will secure the release of most Israeli prisoners, but it does not obligate Israel to end its war with Hamas.
The success of the plan depends on whether or not Hamas will agree to the first phase without agreeing to end the war permanently, which has been a core demand of Hamas so far. The plan was prepared by the heads of the intelligence services in the United States, Israel, and Egypt, as well as the Qatari Prime Minister, according to Reuters.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, Prime Minister of Qatar, said on Monday that they do not know Hamas' response and cannot predict it.
Hamas told Reuters in a statement on Tuesday that the proposal would include three stages, including the release of prisoners held by the movement and of Palestinian prisoners in Israel. The statement confirmed some details of a framework presented to Reuters by two sources familiar with the proposal.
The statement stated that women, children, the elderly and the injured would be released in the first phase and that the plan was sent to Gaza to obtain the opinion of Hamas leaders there. The statement added: "Then the Hamas leadership will meet to discuss the paper and express its final opinion on it."
More than 100 Israeli prisoners are still being held, after a similar number were released in a previous truce in November that included the release of dozens of Palestinians.
Versions of the ceasefire framework consisting of several stages have been under discussion since late December, but Israel did not sign the initial version until the meeting of David Barnea, director of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, with his American and Egyptian counterparts and the Prime Minister of Qatar in Paris on Sunday.
Egyptian sources said that Qatar, Egypt and Jordan will ensure that Hamas adheres to any agreement, while the United States and France will do the same with the Israeli side.
This comes as Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, announced on Tuesday that he will visit Cairo to discuss the plan. Haniyeh says that Hamas is open to all ideas that will lead to an end to Israel's attack on Gaza.
Women, children and the elderly
A source familiar with the Paris talks and another source with deep knowledge of the talks and their results said that the first phase of the plan will include temporarily stopping the fighting and releasing prisoners of old, civilians, and children. The two sources stated that sending large shipments of food and medicine to the Gaza Strip, which is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, will resume.
The two sources disagreed on the duration of the first phase of the ceasefire, but they said that it would be set for at least a month.
The two sources said that the second phase will witness the release of Israeli female soldiers and a further increase in the delivery of aid and the restoration of services and facilities to Gaza, and that the third phase will witness the release of the bodies of dead Israeli soldiers in exchange for the liberation of Palestinian prisoners.
The Hamas statement stated that the second phase would also include the release of Israeli recruits.
The statement stated: “Military operations on both sides will stop during the three stages.” The statement added: "The number of people required to be released from the Palestinian side has not been determined, and the matter is left to the negotiation process at every stage, with the Israeli side preparing to release those with high convictions."
The two sources said that although Israel has not committed to a permanent ceasefire, the desired goal of the phased approach is the fourth phase in which the war will end and Hamas will release all detained male Israeli army soldiers in exchange for Israel releasing more Palestinian prisoners.
An official familiar with the negotiations said: “There is agreement on the principle of the framework, but the precise details of each stage still need to be determined.”
The official added that if Hamas agrees to the framework proposal, it may take days or weeks to agree on the logistical details of the ceasefire and the release of prisoners and detainees.
A source familiar with the talks that preceded the truce in November said that during those talks, the chain of indirect communications between Hamas leaders in the Gaza tunnels and Israeli officials was interrupted several times due to a power outage amid the fierce fighting.
The current behind-the-scenes talks are taking place side by side with a public dispute in which both sides of the conflict appear to want to pressure the other by issuing statements that rule out many possible settlements.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel will not leave Gaza or liberate thousands of Palestinian prisoners, while the Islamic Jihad movement stated that it will not participate in any understanding regarding the prisoners except by ensuring a comprehensive ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Itamar Ben Gvir, the far-right partner in Netanyahu's coalition, threatened on Tuesday to withdraw from the government if there was any attempt to enter into an "uncalculated" agreement with Hamas regarding the prisoners.
"What really matters"
It is not clear whether the declared positions reflect developments taking place behind closed doors.
The Prime Minister of Qatar said on Monday in a symposium organized by the Atlantic Council in Washington via the Internet that the framework agreed upon by the Paris parties depends on the terms of the first proposal presented by Israel and the corresponding proposal by Hamas.
He explained: "We tried to combine the proposals to reach a platform that all parties agree on."
For his part, the source with deep knowledge of the proposal noted that it could still be amended. He told Reuters: “The number of days or prisoners can be changed, but the current approach to negotiation allows achieving gains for all parties according to what interests them.”
The source with in-depth knowledge added that the discussions in Paris were “fruitful,” but an agreement could only be achieved if Hamas and Israel received strong guarantees from the mediators.
The source said that keeping the male captive Israeli soldiers until the end may give Hamas a feeling that it has some influence over the Israeli army.
Reuters
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“Waiting for Hamas’ response.” A plan for a ceasefire in Gaza